10/14/2022 Puck Talk

Good Morning Gentlemen and Jules 

Where do you want to start? Is Tort's that good or Ruff that bad. Only one game, but disappointed in the Devils. They lost every puck battle that I saw. The Sens/Swords game was actually better than the final outcome. Only time will tell with Buffalo. Sens need Talbot back. Someone calling the Pens, "not to good"? Huh? Sidney still plays like he is 21. Top 5 of all time in my opinion. Small sample size but watching the Panthers, it appears they have a little more defense prowess about them, but it was against the Isles. If that is the case, will Bob be improved this year? Uh, Leafs you won but lost my tt bet. You are close to being on my no bet list in week 1. Guess the Preds were hungover. What a no show at home. Speaking of no shows, Moose, what the hell happened to the Wild? Has the Flower wilted? Rangers look good early. They are flying up and down the ice. How many parlays and single bets did Vegas kill by missing empty nets? Not saying they has resolved their goaltending issues yet with Thompson, he has only faced the Kings and the Hawks. Calgary, dominated, yes dominated the Avs. Could have been the b2b travel for the Avs but it is only game 2 and should not have been that big of an issue. Kings? WTH happened there? I was asleep. 

Onto tonight. Do the Sharks have the same hangover as the Preds? Better not vs the Canes. Think this schedule plays into the Canes hands. They are getting a west road swing out of the way the first week. How will the Rangers handle their first b2b this year? Expecting Halak in net which last time I saw him, he was giving out goals like candy at Halloween. Legs should not be an issue for the Rangers but we will see. Elvis returned to practice yesterday but no official announcement on tonight. Losing Laine really hurts the BJ's. The question with the Bolts to me is they know when to play and when to cruise. Remember, they lost 4 of their first 6 to start the season last year. Finally, the offseason talk of the improved Red Wings. I still think the Habs are near the bottom of the barrel and the win over the Leafs the other night was, well it was the Leafs. I do like what Wings have done. Just throwing this out there but thru the first 18 games, the home team has won 12 of them. Opening home the season on home ice, crowd excitement? First thoughts are the Jets/Wings get it done on home ice but the BJ's and Sharks do not. 

Will look more into tonight throughout the day, but first

What do YOU want to talk about? 

Updated record:

6-5  +.45 units 

Other tidbits. 

Habs have not won in Detroit since February of 2019. 

7 of the last 10 meetings between the Jets/Rags have been unders

Last 3 meeting with Canes/Sharks have been under with the Canes only averaging 2.0 goals per game

Last 3 meeting of Bolts/BJ's, Bolts averaging 4.33 per gm. 

Yes, I know teams have changed and games go back a year. 

Flyers found some luck, and unsustainable goal scoring. They were actually dominated. They will ride a few emotional wins to start and they will be a bottom 5 team all year.

31.11 CF%
39.99 xGF%
30.77 HDCF%

Rangers look unstoppable, really. +1000 to win the east, +1600 to win the cup. They have all the pieces gelling and maturing at the exact right time. Shesterkin and the Rangers as a road dog will likely happen maybe once or twice again all year, outside of back-to-backs. 

Vegas was skating through mud, and just not impressed with Eichel still.

And yeah.. lol Pens.

Like the Canes tonight, but after my 0-9 A$$ whoopin last night, prob gonna go light.  Your Pens looked good.  I was not impressed with Isles - they looked overmatched, and I think they are headed to a 5th or 6th place finish in the Metro. 

WTF Wild?  Rags are good but 7 GA?!?!?  I think Wild are an Over play for now.  CGY impressed, but they caught Avs on a Roadie B2B.   Kings helmets looked better last night, but the team did not.  Expected more from them.  Kraken could be a play on team this year, at least early.

Time to get back on the roller coaster ride that is my bankroll.  Please keep hands and feet inside the ride at all times.

Wings price coming down hard, seeing it at -159 now.

@peelpub94

 Well, keep on coming down. I will more than likely take the Wings. I am not from Missouri but Montreal is going to have to SHOW ME. I have them just above Chicago and Arizona. Let's see. 

Hey Pell,

Yep it is...early in the day though, and NHL is least bet volume wise of the big 4 - which I know that YOU KNOW LOL...no offense meant.

Your comment is well taken..70% of the $$ and 80% of the tickets on the Wings and the line drops from -170 to -155 now.  Early in the day, but the line movement is there.  Could be one large wager...maybe a MTL homer feeling frisky?

Cheers  

Looks like the drop in the ML to -155 for the Wings just showed up/confirmed in the Tickets written %...44% tickets now on MTL from 30% before the ML dropped.  Just sayin'

@GASportsDoc @DB51daBEARS


For a game I normally wouldn't care about too much, I'm super intrigued now :)

My bad...I used to know how to read and comprehend...44% of the $$ on MTL is what I meant to say, confirming the line move.  Swear I've only had coffee today.

@GASportsDoc

 I have got into a lot of arguments with people I like and bunch I don’t about Sid. He is IMO one of if not the most underrated players in history.  

My only one for the night:

Red Wings reg -111

@benhogan76

 You will get no arguments from me Ben. It is not just the scoring. He sacrifices, plays D and has turned into a helluva captain. If it was offense alone, I'd not state the claim but it is the entire package. 

I won't be underestimating the Kraken anymore.

for today Lighting / Canes parlay

rangers +120

Hey Doc,

The eye test...the smell test...the Canes first game impressive play...everything says Canes (even PL should be a good option).  So I took a look down thru the ages on espn and it says the Canes haven't won in San Jose since 2015    Lol...talk about twisting stats to make a case.  Well I'm not making a case for the Sharks (especially after their power outages in Prague a week ago).  Canes play Sharks just 2x/year but haven't gotten the W in Silicon Valley since the 2014-15 season.  Teams change/players come and go...can't compare...and the former SJ D-stud, Brent Burns, will be returning to the arena where he made a name for himself...and with a team that prides itself on its defense (as you've noted on occasion).  Pretty sure the curse of silicon valley is thrashed tonight.  Oh, and Timo Meier is DTD with a minor upper body injury, if scoring wasn't already an issue.

Cheers Doc and Guys  

Pretty sure the Sharks were +200 or higher last year when the Canes lost there. 

@DB51daBEARS

 You got me looking. It is not just Timo that is questionable but also Ferraro. Sharks scored 3 goals in Prague, Timo had one assist and Ferraro had the other 2. Hmmm..will reconsider as time draws near. 

@peelpub94

 Again, you peek my interest, so I looked up that November 22, 2021 game. Canes were 14-2 vs the 8-8 Sharks. It looks like the line opened at -150 but went to about -165. Interesting that Reimer was in net then and it appears he is in net tonight. Canes only put up 23 SOG. The only thing that stands out differently to me was that was the Canes 4th western road game in 8 days. 

@GASportsDoc

 Nice research. I remember a lot of commotion on that game among the cappers before and after. 

board is terrible tonight

waiting on andersen save prop, might be worth a look

Kind of talkin myself into Jets Regulation.  Rags have looked real good, but B2B, OTR early in the season, 3rd game in 4 days, could be asking a lot.  Winnipeg has yet to play, and should come out pumped up on home ice.

Underdog SOG Overs:

Season 1-1 / Season Overall Over SOG Selections 6-1-1 / Up .8 Net Units

Went 3-0-1 last night so winnings were cut back for the push.

Onto tonight:

Going with Nikolaj Ehlers - Higher than 3 shots, Kyle Conner - Higher than 3 shots, and back to the well again tonight on Chris Kreider - Higher than 2.5 shots.

Laying .1 units to win .6 units

GL to all!

@dyamarik

 I was thinking the same thing, but then I thought, am I over thinking it this early in the year.