11/28/2022 PUCK Talk

Morning Gentlemen and Jules 

Back to the grind Monday. Thank you to those, Peel and D, for continuing the thread. It is much needed from time to time. Back to business. Basically a quarter of the way through the regular season. I guess the Devils are for real. A lot of us have hit on the Devils, Boston, Seattle and until recently the play of Vegas but who is quietly just taking care of business under the radar? Colorado. Personally, this is the hidden story. They are 8-2 last 10 with most of it on the road, but the most impressive thing is they have been doing it without a 1/3 of last year's Cup team. No Helm, Landeskog, MacDermid, Nichushkin, Byram and Rodrigues, not to mention 2 new goalies. Ground control to Major Tom, Philadelphia and Chicago, welcome back to planet Earth. Can't add the Yotes there, just yet. And the Ducks...Gibson went out last night with an injury so will pay attention to that scenario. 

Onto tonight. We have a lot of DOMINATION tonight. The Red Hot Devils vs the What the Hell Rangers. Rangers losers 3 of the last 5, including that melt down Saturday, but...but...the Rangers are 9-1 vs the Devils last 10. Speaking of 9-1, the Bolts are 9-1 vs the Swords the last 10. Interesting 6 of the last 9 meetings have been OVERS. Tampa has scored 5 or more in 6 of the last 7 meetings with the Swords. 

Leafs rolling again? Without D men? That is how they want you to feel, right Rustie? The Leafs are 8-0-2 vs Wings in the last 10 meetings. In the last 2 meetings at Little Caesars, the Wings have scored 12 goals BUT the problem has been they have given up 17 in those 2 games (remember the 10-7 game). Wings better though in net. Wings have scored 20 goals in their last 4 games. Would the real Vegas Knights please stand up. Those glow in the dark uni's need to go. Columbus has actually won 5 of the 8 meetings but I won't them. 

Big Central match-up. Dallas visits St. Louis. Dallas only win in the last 4 games was that dramatic come back win on Wednesday vs Chicago. Blues on the other hand have won 8 of their last 10. Blues are 3-0 vs Stars the last 3 meetings with ALL 3 being UNDERS. Finally, the Heavy Breathers visit Western Canada. Does Florida remember 2 weeks ago at Sunrise? Does it matter? Florida is 1-4 in their last 5 games, including the 3P meltdown Saturday. On the flip side, the Oil were recipients of a 3P comeback in NY. Is Barkov still ill? The last 4 meeting between these 2 have all been UNDERS. 

Speaking of all these meltdowns, how many times have we witnessed a prevent defense stop anything? My saying is a prevent defense prevents you from winning. Examples, Florida Saturday had 16 shots on goal in the 1P, 17 shots of goal in the 2P and then just 4...FOUR sog in the 3P. Same for the Rangers vs Oil. They go into a dump and defend mindset then by the time the other team starts lighting the lamp, it is too late to get it back. Winnipeg DID NOT do that last night. They kept the foot to the pedal. 

Hey Mud, HSK 

Enough of me. What do you want to talk about? 

Good stuff as always, Doc.

Colorado has definitely caught my attention of late, stacking up some big wins and on the road. I don't get how teams like them and Toronto do this despite a rash of injuries? Everyone else has to step up? Good depth? Hard to explain at times.

As I always say about the Swords, put them in against the best of the league and they just aren't there and will lose most times. Would I classify the current Lightning team as the best? No. But they're pretty good. Tough one because the Swords actually played Jersey well the last 2 periods and especially the 3rd period. They looked shook in the 1st period and never fully recovered from the deficit. I think when they play again, they'll have learned from this and it'll be a closer game. As for tonight, well, I have to see who is in net for Sabres. But most likely the Lightning putting up several goals seems like the play.

Here is my hot take on the Wings. I told myself after the last game when they play a real team, hammer the real team. I don't believe the Wings are as good as their record indicates. Leafs are power ranked #5 on moneypuck, meanwhile Detroit is 25th! And the Leafs are rolling at the moment. If I could only trust the Leafs more, this would be the spot i'd choose to hammer the living hell out of them over this Wings team. All I will say is look for some regression from the Wings soon. and if I'm wrong, I'll own it. You mentioned 20 goals in Detroit's last 4 games and here are the opponents: arizona, nashville, cbj, sj. My point? Put them against a real team and I think we'll see them come down quite a bit.

Your write up on DAL/STL and EDM/FLA gave me way stronger takes on both games. After what you wrote, it felt like STL was the play. One note about Dallas tho; 3 of their last 4 have been against really good teams (2 games against the Avs). But the game being in STL makes it a bit tougher for them. Dallas is 6-4-2 on the road; not bad but not great either. Definitely better at home. Dallas is still 3rd in their conference, believe it or not (I would've guessed lower). As for EDM/FLA, looking a little more into it, EDM beat them already once this year 4-2. I sometimes like playing the revenge angle but not sure I like it here. Florida losing that last one had to be demoralizing. On the flipside, EDM might have found a spark in that big comeback win against the Rangers. Just feels like a good spot to play EDM tonight. They are only 5-6 at home tho! Florida is 4-6 on the road.  

Forgot to mention NJ @ NYR, my game of the night.

How will NYR respond after that last loss? Will Igor be in net? Id guess yes. 

As Doc mentioned, the Rangers have a very favorable record against the Devils of late. But just look at the Rangers recent schedule. 4 of their last 5 have been 1 goal difference games. They've lost to Edmonton, Anaheim and Seattle. The beat LAK and SAJ; not exactly world beaters. We all know how good the Devils have been. If they play anything like they have, and Vanecek continues his solid play, they should beat these Rangers without much issue. But there's something about this particular match up that gives them trouble so we shall see. Despite my feelings about this Rangers team of late, deep down I think they're still a real good team and they'll figure it out eventually. Jersey is so good on the road so far, at 9-1. Hard for me to not take one of the best teams in the league at -105. 

First off, Welcome back Doc , I don't really think anyone saw that beatdown of the Knights coming, sometimes maybe we should look for situations where the players are too involved with the 'entertainment' side of things (or the embarrassing) like those Uni's .Yes Leafs are rolling and it seems maybe the struggles were due to them buying in to a more defensive style, they are limiting shots on goal. That being said look for the over tonight . Still think they miss a guy like Spezza though, great faceoff guy and a quiet , steady presence in the dressing room. Was there a reason you didn't mention Kadri to the missing Av's?. It is surprising to see how the Yotes are managing this looong roadie but they are hanging with 'em most nights, it's not a bad idea to take them with the +1 or P/L and still getting + odds.

Devils Are for real, and I am surprised ,anyone else?. Flyers are a shitshow about to go into full on Tort meltdown, that one does not surprise!

BOL Today!

I also forgot to mention I am probably staying away from Vegas for a bit. That game against the Nucks was MAJOR Deja Vu of last year. I swear, every spot where it looked like they'd win (and it seemed too obvious) and I hopped on them, they'd lose. I won't overreact and say they are slipping just yet but I'm staying away for right now. CBJ isn't good and Vegas should win but I can't trust them at this very moment.

I mentioned the goalie situation and needing to see whose in net for the Sabres. Not confirmed but UPL looks like a solid bet. His debut was bad but his 2nd game the other night against the Blues was really good. He made some saves, man. I like too many road teams today and need to find a home team to switch to. This TB/Buff game feels real close to me. 

Oh man, Matt Murray likely in net for Leafs. He was called out by a lot of people for his shenanigans with knocking the goalie net off its posts a few times the other day. I'm sure refs will be keeping an eye on that after the attention it got. 

Leaning Over in DAL/STL and EDM/FLA.

Ragamuffins fit scenario 2 in vic's system. Long west coast roadie and lost the 1st game back at home. So the system would say play them tonight. Given their recent domination over the Pitchforks I will likely go that way. 

Also leaning Stars and Heavy Breathers which seems opposite of the early chatter in this thread.

Gonna digest this some before I head to work as the lines my work in my favor as the day goes on.

@GASportsDoc

Hey Doc...great to see you back!!!

Terrific stuff...and the thread is always  top notch!!!

Cheers  

PS - wanted to give you a shout out first, now I gotta read the excellent content from you and the gang  

FLA says Barkov didn't travel with the team to Western Canada...but they hope he'll be available some time during the trip.  So he won't be in EDM or CGY, but then they go to VAN and SEA which are further still.  Winnipeg is last stop on the 5 games/9 days roadie.  What town are we in tonight?

Welcome back Doc, BOL to you tonight!!

@BooBunny

 ahh yes vics system. i knew there was something holding me back on the Devils.

Great read as always.

I'll beonn the Blues tonight.  Stars are 1-4 last 5 vs teams w a winning record and st Louis at home has been a tough out.

I'll be on Toronto too as agree with above and red wings regression.  Murray as been good in November at 2.1 gaa.

Really want to take Rangers as feel most will be on devils with that line. If line doesn't move toward devils I will prob pull trigger.

Cheers

What’s happening doc, stupid question. Who are the heavy breathers?

@potvin

 That's Boo's nickname for the Florida Panthers. Don't really know why but it has stuck. 

@potvin

 Panthers = Panting Cats = Panters = Heavy Breathers

I can't take all the credit. Danger had helped that nickname stick as well.

I'll be following this naming system very closely

Just tallied up my losses for the 10 day vacation.  It was painful.  Kind of like waking up with that feeling you get when you have a blackout hangover and you're in some ugly girls apartment with no clothes on.

Welcome back Doc.  My leans: late game Overs, CLB & Rags.  Good luck to all.  Rest of the day is in the Salt Mines (aka the office).

Can't lie and no reason to really, AHL has been very, very good to me. Was 10-2 last week in AHL and like 5-5 in NHL. I have gone back to not posting, except for CHCL bet, because I feel the posting jinx is in affect at the current time. I do give hints to what I am doing as the Ducks 1P over bets. NHL is tough and the odds are getting freaking ridiculous compared to AHL odds. Like I am going to be very interested in seeing if the Ducks have to call up their AHL goalie, Dostal, since Gibson is hurt. Dostal has been the only goalie for the San Diego Gulls. If he moves up they have to bring in fresh meat and I will POUND them as they suck already. 

 Elliott in net for Tampa tonight. TT is high for the Swords but it is at 2.5. 

Panarin has not scored a goal in 12 games. Line shake up in NY tonight. Chytil-Paranin-Kakko. Just feels like the Rangers in this one. 

This was one of the most interesting practice days in a while for #NYR - line changes, a meeting with Gallant and a players' only meeting, lots of topics addressed - much of which will be included in a new story coming soon.

RANGERS.

(AND MAYBE SABRES TOO! One of the Sabres or Wings are winning - both are experiencing reverse line movement; both have 60-65% of bets and yet the line is moving away from them)

@Omega_pix