3/4/25

Nice win last night on the MON/BUF game. It only took 3/4 of the season but finally they started scoring goals. Let us pray the goal scoring continues as needed. Which is now. 

I like the O5.5 in the SJS/BUF game tonight. HOWEVER. There are some points that give me pause for this game...

My sheet brings this up as a 5 total goal game, this can be overlooked with a simple empty net goal or some quick scoring, however, it cannot be ignored. 

SJS cover O5.5 when the match up probability to go O5.5 is above 51%, 48% of the time. 

BUF cover O5.5 when the match up probability to go O5.5 is above 51%, 78% of the time. 

BUF is tied with CHI and CBJ for the most home games to go O5.5 this season in the entire league, all three teams sitting at 23 games O5.5 total goals while on home ice. For perspective, those teams are all between 29-31 games played at home this season so somewhere between 74%-79% of the time these teams are on home ice they are going O5.5...Thats pretty good odds if you ask me. 

Both teams on B2B.

This will be the first time BUF will play the second leg of a B2B on Home Ice. Not sure how this affects them since they were just at home for the first bit of the MON HnH match up and only traveled to CAR (a quick flight and home the same night).

When BUF is at home they AVG 3.45 goals per game.

Overall BUF is 6-1 O5.5 in the first leg of a B2B game and 3-4 O5.5 in the second leg of a B2B.

When BUF is O5.5 in the first leg of a B2B (there were O5.5 last night in MON), the second leg is 2-4 O5.5. This stat is bothersome. 

When SJS is OTR they AVG 2 GPG, that is going to be 100% needed to clear the O5.5 tonight, BUF cannot be expected to do all the work...That being said we do get Gorgi in net tonight for SJS so hopefully BUF is up to the task tonight of getting some pucks on net. 

Overall SJS is 6-3 O5.5 in the first leg of a B2B game and 5-4 in the second leg of a B2B. 

When SJS is U5.5 in the first leg of a B2B, the second leg is 1-2 O5.5. This stat is bothersome. 

With all that information regarding B2B games this one could likely stay a low scoring game. If the B2B scenario did not exist there would be a much higher possibility of an O5.5 tonight. 

However...

I think BUF will be ready to get the points tonight that they missed on in OT last night, they are also on notice that SJS beat TOR in a SO last night, so they are aware SJS played well. 

SJS/BUF probability O5.5 - 60.95%/O6.0 - 55.46%/SJS AVG 2 GPG OTR/BUF AVG 3 GPG @Home/4 of L5 meetings O5.5/4 of L5 meetings 1P O1.5/SJS 3 OF L5 O5.5/BUF 4 OF 5 O5.5

Currently the line is at -175 on BET365 for the O5.5 in this game. O6.5 is -105. I will watch the first five minutes and see if I can get shot at O5.5 Live Play at anything -140 or better. They seem to score in the first period pretty handily clearing the 1.5 marker 4 of the last 5 meetings. Might be worth it to put a little on the 6.5 and some extra on the 5.5 if the opportunity arises. 

All but one game on my sheet tonight is showing an average projection of 5 goals except for the NAS/BOS game which shows 4. That makes is a little tougher for me to take some of these games but a few others that I am looking at are:

CAR/DET - 56.19% O5.5 But the history here is low scoring games. 1 in the L5 meetings between the two teams have gone O5.5. CAR 2 in their L5 O5.5, DET 4 of L5 O5.5 so that bodes well. U6.5 right now is -125. 

CBJ/TBL - 57.50% O5.5/5 of L5 meetings O5.5/CBJ 5 of L5 games O5.5/TBL 0 of L5 games O5.5. TBL have either had trouble scoring or created massive trouble for other teams to score. The U6.5 at +115 ALMOST looks tempting enough to play ... but I despise Under plays. Plus, TBL was just Shutout by their in-state brother and that had to piss them off, now they get CBJ a team who AVG 2.67 GPG OTR coming into Tampa, I don't know...this either feels too easy and it's a trap or its easy money...no respect for the goalies here...IF i get a chance at O5.5 live at -140 or below, I'll take it. 

PIT/COL 60.98% O5.5/3 of L5 meetings O5.5 & O1.5 1P/PIT 4 of L5 O5.5/COL 3 of L5 O5.5. If these teams were scoring more consistently this would be a no brainer O5.5 play. This one is actually intriguing. But the line for O5.5 is -200 and not a chance I trust PIT or COL with those odds. 

will post any live plays as I play them but the games i will be watching are:

SJS/BUF O5.5 -140 or better

CBJ/TBL O5.5 -140 or better

PIT/COL O5.5 +100 or better

Live Play SJS/BUF O5.5 -120

TBL score in the first two minutes of play so the O5.5 in that game is not likely to come around again unless the first period ENDS 1-0. 

HOLY CRAP TBL net another goal within the first 2 minutes. Goodbye O5.5