3/9/25

Happy weekend everyone! Early games on today are tricky to play for totals. Probably staying away and just trying to enjoy to Flyer's game...trying will be the key word there. Boy they are getting tougher and tougher to watch. Possible this is Torts last year with the team. Moving on...

The one I have locked in for today is slightly high on the odds, but I have a feeling the number only goes up throughout the day...

TOR/COL O5.5 -175 - Full line of indicators on the sheet and a past history that plays to the O5.5.

- TOR has the most games OTR O5.5 of any team at 21 for the season! That's 70% of their road games going O5.5 total goals.

- COL sits up near the top of the pack for games played on home ice that have gone O5.5 total goals this year with 20 of their 32 home games played this season going O5.5. 62.50% to be exact.

- TOR AVG 3 GPG OTR and COL AVG 3 GPG @ Home.

- 4 of the L5 meetings between these two teams are O5.5 5 of the L5 meetings have seen the 1P O1.5 hit.

- Both teams have 3 of their L5 games go O5.5 total goals.

Hoping the offenses show up on a Saturday night and the Leafs don't shit the bed on the road, which they are known to do. Let's get it! 

Honorable mentions on the radar to be played:

CHI/NAS O5.5 -175 - I think this is a little high but what do I know. 

- CHI is 6-2 O5.5 on the second leg of a B2B.

- When the first leg of a B2B set of games goes O5.5, The second leg is 3-1 to the O5.5.

- CHI is right around middle of the road with away games O5.5, sitting around 48% of their road games going O5.5 this season (15/31GP)

- CHI 38.71% for away games O6.5 this season (12/31GP)

- 48% of NAS home games have been O5.5 total goals (15/31GP)

- 41.94% of NAS home games have been O6.5 goals (13/31GP) 

- What I take away from the H/A stats above is there is marginal difference between the games going O5.5 and O6.5. Only 2 NAS games which went O5.5 did not clear 6.5 and only 3 O5.5 CHI games did not clear. The O5.5 is obviously always the safer bet, but this does add some potential value to the O6.5 +100 play as opposed to the -175 play. 

- When NAS is on 1 day of rest, with a home game played prior to the day of rest (no travel), they are 5-5 O5.5. In the same scenario where the total is O6.5 NAS is 4-6. 

This is a game I could see myself playing once goalies are confirmed. Saros is projected and has 4 shutouts this season, that is problematic as clearing any total typically takes both teams to do so.

- Soderblom is an O5.5 machine with 7 of his L10 starts going O6.5 (forget the O5.5 holy moly!). 

The other one I am checking out is:

BUF/FLA is the other one I am looking into.

FLA has had 4 SO since JAN 1st, all of them coming at home.

BUF loves to go O5.5 with 19/29 away games played going O5.5 (65%).

FLA is only about 51% O5.5 when playing at home, 17/33GP. Four of those home games have been shut outs...

BUF has not been SO since 12/1/2024 (that when I started tracking team by team shut out games and how they affected O5.5 betting).

This is one I am slightly skeptical of just because of the superior play of the FLA defense and netminders.

While BUF has seen 5 of their L5 games go O5.5, FLA has only had 1 game in the L5 go O5.5.

Only two meetings between these two teams in their L5 meetings have gone O5.5. 

Ill keep checking on this one and see if its worth playing. Currently at -165 for the O5.5 line on BET365, you may not get a better line than that as BUF has been allowing goals quickly after the puck drop

4 of the L5 meetings between BUF/FLA have seen the 1P O1.5 cash. 

Cheers and BOL to everyone on this wonderful weekend! 

BOL today 

@Raiders22

 TY Sir. Same to you! Crazy the regular season is 75% gone already...holy crap! Might have to get into baseball this year to see if I can run the same model I am running in hockey on the baseball for Over probability?? I dont know jack shit about baseball like I do about hockey though, havent really followed it since 1993-1998

Nice input 

@Fuse

 Thanks Fuse! BOL today!

Looking at that Loafs/Avs Over as well - BOL trip 

Great stuff cuz 

@dyamarik

BOL Tonight bud! 

@ClubTrash

 Thank you. 

I like it when they cover in the second period! Wahoo!