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An NHL Playoff Approach that has been Gold for years

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Legend
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Posted: #1
This will be my only playoff post. Just leaving this here with good intentions, hope it helps.

Ok so here is my little tid bit of advice. For many years the NHL playoffs have been extremely good to me. One golden rule I have always followed is to avoid going against the strongest road teams and betting on them when possible. My feeling being is that those teams generally carry the most character on their team where as some other teams with a little less intestinal fortitude require the cozy confines of home to play courageously, this is a disaster waiting to happen in the playoffs. You don't have to bet on them but I suggest at least avoiding betting against the strongest road teams in the league. So here are this season top five road teams from strongest downward. Winning percentage in tow.

New York Rangers .667
Chicago Blackhawks .634
Washington Capitals .625
Columbus Blue Jackets .613
Minnesota Wild .600

Those are the only teams that on the road were .600 or higher on the road this season.

One last little morsel. In case some of you are wondering why the Ottawa Senators are such huge underdogs to the Bruins, a team that have absolutely owned and a team they have home ice over, truly a puzzling line indeed. Well maybe, just maybe the oddsmakers feel the same way about my angle because the Ottawa Senators have the worst road winning percentage of any team in this seasons NHL playoffs with a very pedestrian .514 road winning percentage. Two other teams that rely on home ice a lot are the pens and ducks with .524 and .525 road winning percentages respectively, the other two worst teams on the road in the tournament. Maybe all this means nothing this season but it usually does so just sharing. 

I personally love the Blue Jackets and Rangers as dogs in the first round. Have a weird feeling about the Hawks getting upset too but no logical reason behind that thought. Hard to imagine the Capitals not obliterating the Maple Leafs. 

Goodluck to everyone and I hope you all win lots of money during the playoffs. Bet wisely, stay within your means and take care. God speed.   PB 
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
GL PB and thxs
 
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Posted: #3
Hey PB, good stuff and I would definitely agree with this angle as well.  Just curious though where you get your numbers or how you're calculating winning percentage.

I believe the conventional way is basically points earned divided by the number of potential points.  By this method I have Ottawa (22-17-2) at .561, multi-way tie for 9th out of playoff teams road records.  The worst is Nashville (17-20-4) at .463.  But I also personally think that method is crap as it includes the "loser point" which only serves to pad a team's record.  As a straight up function of wins and losses (which is really all that matters in the playoffs) I have Ottawa at 22-19 and a 5-way tie for 5th best in the league.  In fact a better record than Boston at 21-20, even though Boston's conventional winning percentage would be technically better.  Not saying I think this means Ottawa beats Boston, just my own hot take on records/win %'s.
 
Legend
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Posted: #4
Hi jab, goodluck.......dcp, here you go buddy...

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-home-and-away-winning-percentages/2016/

And my apologies in getting caught up in that bizaar bruins/sens line I actually forgot my 3rd play of the first round, I am taking 3 underdogs both in series and in games throughout those series. They are the Rangers, Blue Jackets and the Oilers who I love and forgot and it is actually teh Sharks that have the worst road percentage as per chart at .500 so they are immediate bet against material, and I also just flat out like these Oilers, there speed should drive the Sharks bonkers. 

GL dcp and Jab, have a great playoffs guys!
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #5
Sounds great PB, 

Good thing the Sens have home ice advantage




 
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Posted: #6
Thanks for that reference PB.

Sharks banged up too, I like the Oilers as well.
 
MVP
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Posted: #7
GL my friend
 
Captain
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Posted: #8

Great read.

Thanks a lot and have a good playoffs!

 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Thanks for sharing PB..miss you be around. Your insight and banter have always been useful. 

Those Who do not learn from History, are doomed to repeat it
 
MVP
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Posted: #10
Hawks probably won't lose in the first round again, but the west was weak so it is possible.  It is just off my radar.  If I had to predict the Hawks playoffs I would say a Stanley Cup finals loss to a strong Eastern team.  

You playoff theory is solid as a rock I am sure!


Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by GASportsDoc:

Thanks for sharing PB..miss you be around. Your insight and banter have always been useful. 

I meant to respond to you in a thread I was in a while back but don't look on here often and when I noticed your post time had passed. Thank you for the kind words and the respect is returned in spades old friend. I can't really wish your Penguins luck as I am betting against them but do hope all the best for ypu and wish you all the success in tn the world Doc.
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
Series Plays 

Rangers
Jackets
Oilers
Capitals -1.5 games

Game One Plays

Rangers
Jackets
Senators
Oilers
Capitals -1.5 puckline




The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #13
Best of Luck on all your plays on the Playoffs and thanks for your input

                                

 
Legend
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

Hawks probably won't lose in the first round again, but the west was weak so it is possible.  It is just off my radar.  If I had to predict the Hawks playoffs I would say a Stanley Cup finals loss to a strong Eastern team.  

You playoff theory is solid as a rock I am sure!


Well well well.....And the legend himself makes an appearance. Ya I certainly could not bring myself to go against your boys spottie but I do think they will have their hands full and I want nothing to do with that series. Great to you see you bud. I was going to message you in the next couple days to discuss some of this so look for it
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
GOOD breakdown, P_B. have a profitable playoffs. with the H_W's Wild and esp Dubnyk's recent problems, I think wheaty's Blues have decent chance to upset. also really do NOT trust Vito's Rangers vs the Habs with Price in goal. REALLY like the BJ's with Bobrovsky vs a banged up Penguins team
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
Just leaving this here for anyone that is planning on betting the blues/wild series. You should be aware that the blues have been part of an amazing little story the last little while. They, specifically Tarasenko have taken under their team wing an incredible 11 year old little girl, she is a cancer survivor who has been through and awful lot and is still bursting with positive energy. It is quite the heartfelt story and she is quite the amazing little woman. The team took her on a road trip with them at the end of the season and they will be playing in the playoffs with her in their hearts as well. Not saying that equates to victory but certainly something to be aware of if that kind of thing matters to you. Lots of emotion involved there. Here is an amazing video of some of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyOsCOQ5Oos
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #17
Great insight Polar_Bear, good luck in the playoffs 
 
MVP
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Well well well.....And the legend himself makes an appearance. Ya I certainly could not bring myself to go against your boys spottie but I do think they will have their hands full and I want nothing to do with that series. Great to you see you bud. I was going to message you in the next couple days to discuss some of this so look for it


In my opinion as in my thread the boys up  north of the border are going to stand up and make some noise.  Those that qualified of course.  The East is loaded and I expect some nice upsets and quality hockey.  As far as the Preds they ever win?  I just don't see it again. 

Hawks strong?  Nope not at all I see Minny beating St. Louis, yea I know the Blue notes have been making a nice run.  I just see the Wild taking this and giving my Hawks fits in round 2.  The Wild upset in round 2 is very possible as I see it.

Flames  and Oilers would be an awesome round 2 match up. Both coming in off momentum, not just a round one qualification. 

I really feel strongly about the dogs.  I don't dabble with the juice of playing the +1.5 lines but I may dabble with making my own +1 lines.

Bottom line lets make some coins
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
Legend
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Posted: #19
Flames  and Oilers would be an awesome round 2 match up. Both coming in off momentum, not just a round one qualification.

HOW in the NAME of Lanny McDonald are the Flames gonna BEAT the DUCKS in a 7 games series where the Ducks have home ice games 1 & 2, 5 and 7 ???. Calgary has not WON in Anaheim since Jarome Iginla was on the Flames roster
 
MVP
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

Flames  and Oilers would be an awesome round 2 match up. Both coming in off momentum, not just a round one qualification.

HOW in the NAME of Lanny McDonald are the Flames gonna BEAT the DUCKS in a 7 games series where the Ducks have home ice games 1 & 2, 5 and 7 ???. Calgary has not WON in Anaheim since Jarome Iginla was on the Flames roster



I am not loading up on the predictions I made.  I am riding a lot of dogs but more of a game by game approach.  I did bet the series but not big.  I just can't see all the same teams again and the great white north teams getting stiffed again. My opinion is there are going to be some upsets and I am looking to take advantage.  We will see how it plays out.

As far as the Flames and Ducks.  Flames showed me they can do it with their 17-4 run earlier this year.  Elliott plays well and he can steal it.  If the Flames win 2 games I will make cash even if i lose the series bet.  Take my predictions with a grain of salt but that is what i like.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
Legend
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Posted: #21
Spottie I concur buddy, I see that series being a real dogfight. 

The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
MVP
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Spottie I concur buddy, I see that series being a real dogfight. 



Lets win PB.

I am keying on these squads to get 2 wins in their series. 

key series for me :
Flames get 2 wins
Wild 2 wins
Habs 2 wins
Hawks 2 wins
B Jackets 2 wins
Oilers 2 wins
and I want to pull the trigger on the Leafs but I am a little bit toff by the youth and inexperience so  will watch game 1.  I also went with the Habs instead of the Rags.  Coaching change has me on board there.



Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
Legend
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Posted: #23
I have the Rangers going on a big run. The first series may well be the one that bites them but if they can make it by the habs i'm looking for them to make a run. I think they are a super complete team, never have weak players on the ice, incredible balance, six solid defencemen, two great goalies. Most of them just went to the finals a few seasons ago, the coach has been to two finals and they are the best road team in the league and will be starting all their series' on the road. Really love this team. I have them winning the Cup this year.
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
Legend
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Posted: #24
Series Plays 

Rangers
Senators
Jackets
Oilers
Capitals -1.5 games

https://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nhl/1765/marc-methot
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

I have the Rangers going on a big run. The first series may well be the one that bites them but if they can make it by the habs i'm looking for them to make a run. I think they are a super complete team, never have weak players on the ice, incredible balance, six solid defencemen, two great goalies. Most of them just went to the finals a few seasons ago, the coach has been to two finals and they are the best road team in the league and will be starting all their series' on the road. Really love this team. I have them winning the Cup this year.


Damnnnn!  My first glance at this series I was on board then I filpped. 

I love your comments about the Rags and you are right on,  Raanta can hold the fort as well, I have seen him enough being an ex Hawk.   Series probably starts 1 and 1 so plenty of time for me to adjust. 

Like I already said I feel the East is loaded so I could see either of these squads sending the Caps home.  I am not going to be right on all my series predictions so knowing you are committed on the Rags is a help to me.

Best to you PB Lets get lucky and win our bets


Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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