BARTENDER'S PICKS 11/19-11/25

Thanks, buddy! Hope your betting day/week is going well! 

Nice one good to see you turn it around ?? 

Supposed to be a cheers symbol where’s the question marks are 

Long way to go before I can call it a turnaround but I'll take baby steps and hope to get there in the long run! 

2017-18 Overall 272-227 +$5517.00

2018-19 Overall 35-45 -$1328.00

11/19-11/25 4-3 +$300.00

PHL/TOR over 6 ½ -115 The number is a ½ bigger than what I would like but I’m going to take a shot based on the goalie match-up tonight. Stolarz is getting the call for Philly here and making his first NHL start in two seasons and gets to do it on the road against a high-powered offense. This is a kid who was put on waivers back in October so I’m hoping the pressure here means we see Toronto pot a bunch in front of the home crowd. Philly also sports the league’s worst team save percentage and for a reason as they sit bottom 5 in the league in most shot attempts allowed which obviously translates to potential scoring chances. In net for Toronto is Garrett Sparks who has alternated good and bad starts so far this year and is coming off a strong 38 save performance—but to be fair—both his strong starts came against inept offenses; Anaheim and Los Angelas. Both those teams sit lower third of the league in both overall shots attempted, team shooting percentage and Fenwick. Philly sits middle of the league there so the hope is a few from the Flyers as well.

CHI/FLA over 6 -110 Chicago has been dismal on the road going 3-7-2 and have given up 47 road goals this season (3.91), currently losing 8-straight and allowing 35 goals over that span (4.35). Cam Ward has been horrible (except when I bet against him last time and he was a world beater) compiling a .891 Save% and 3.81 GAA. Reimer for Florida has been equally unimpressive with a .896 Save% and 3.27 GAA

Good luck, everyone! Off to work I go! 

PHL/TOR over 6 ½ -115 Tough loss. Looked like a gimme early on. Scoreless 3rd 

CHI/FLA over 6 -110 

Today: 1-1 -$15.00

I call that a push.

Good luck tomorrow!

Thanks! Same to you. 

2017-18 Overall 272-227 +$5517.00

2018-19 Overall 36-46 -$1342.00

11/19-11/25 5-4 +$285.00

NASH -1/2 -155 This is a simple Anaheim road fade. The Ducks have lost 5-straight on the road and scores of those games are as follows: 0-5, 1-4, 2-5, 1-3, 1-3…all puck line losses. Their offense is not high puck possession and struggles for shot creation and struggles more so to finish when they get those shots. They’ve been out-scored 20-5 in those 5 losses. All of Nashville’s 8 home wins have come in regulation time as well so if you pick them to win, might as well go regulation.

NASH -1 ½ +115 *half unit*

TB -170 The Lightning are 9-3 at home while the Devils are an abysmal 2-8 on the road. I’ve never been a big Domingue fan, but I can’t deny the stats; At home he’s 3-0 with an impressive .939 Save% and 2.33 GAA. Corey Schneider meanwhile has seemingly been supplanted as the starter and has struggled all season to the tune of a .865 Save% and 4.08 GAA and is 0-4 on the road. Jersey played in Tampa a few weeks ago and got thrashed by an 8-3 score.

TB -1 ½ +163 Tampa’s last 8 home wins have all cashed on the puck line and so expecting them to win means throwing something on the extra money.

TB TT O 3 ½ -115 Again, if you’re solidly on Tampa to win then you have to look at what happens when they do…and in their 9 home wins, they’ve scored 45 goals (5.0) and 7 of 9 times (77.7%) have scored 4+

CGY -112 Would have much rather seen Rittich get the nod here but this is a good spot for Smith to have a strong game for The Flames. He’s sat back and watched Rittich steal his job but gets a road start here against a team that has the 29 ranked offense and 24 ranked PP unit. If he can’t bounce back here, then he’s toast. Also, in our favor is Calgary coming off a shut-out loss where their offense was finally stymied although they still got 29 pucks on net, had another 19 blocked and I’m unsure of misses. This Flames team continues to generate shot opportunities and with their skill players up front, those chances can quickly become goals against anyone. Antti Raanta returned from injury and took the loss his last start as he’ll continue working away the rink rust. Arizona boats one of the worst team shooting percentages in the league which could also benefit Smith here. Yotes have lost 4 of 5 and generated only 7 goals (1.40)

Quarter unit parlay for fun:

TB -1 ½ +160

CGY -1 ½ +245

NASH -1 ½ +115

25/457

NASH -1/2 -155  

NASH -1 ½ +115 *half unit*  

TB -170  

TB -1 ½ +163  

TB TT O 3 ½ -115 

CGY -112 

Parlay 25/457  

I didn't get a chance to post on the board, but I also decided to run the parlay again quarter unit in a round robin which hit for an additional $932 so might not reflect on my posted record but did in my pocket.

Today: 7-0 +$1077.00

Can't you be better than perfect? 

I've been on Covers for over a decade, I believe, although not always posting. Personally I haven't had a losing NHL season in many years but when I was younger I did bet without keeping up with the accounting and I was very wreckless back then with tons of parlays and crazy attempts at big hits so I'm pretty sure I had losing seasons. Despite getting aggravated here with my lack of time to research and the results when I have had the time to post, I've learned to trust the process of the numbers, trends, and stats I've used for many years to continue to *knock on wood* bring more wins than losses. As for this year, because of my new job and schedule, I've had a huge rough go to it but I'm personally up 12 units on the year whereas my posted record here reflects being down 2.6 units overall. That said, despite constantly having terrible results, I continually try my hand at MLB and give a lot back.

clever4ever 

AJMay 

Vituperate 

Troy123610 

Maximus1978 

Nice work... see, told ya you’d turned it around