Edmonton/Under and why

Let’s look at some numbers :

-5.5  Dallas         14

-125 Edmonton    21

The over under opened at 5.5, currently the same and opening line has Edmonton at -125, currently around 127. 

The way I cap hockey is by giving each team a rating, that includes a variety of factors, rank, sched. Strength etc. typically lower the number the better the team.    In this case Dallas would be the better team on paper, however, the odds makers have made the oilers the fav.   Based on the data I collect and the opening lines, I think Oilers take it and the game goes under .   

Bol all 

what does the 14 and 21 mean. do u calculate this yourself?

if u say the lower number is the better team then why do u think oilers?

Any record to share based on how you calculate NHL games this way?

@burley

 I calculate the numbers. But get the info from online sources.    

A few things ….. I recognize the oddsmakers are smarter than me,  they have the history, resources, etc ….so I don’t argue why Edmonton is the fav .   I use that number compared to history that I have collected and it indicates to fake the home team and under in these situations . 

@FillyFlier16

 We have had 8 situations where  the total between the two teams have been in the 30’s (playoffs) this year 7 have gone under and 1 has gone over .   In this case the total is 35 - thus playing the under . 

Stars Win !!!

@Heyam

 Thanks bud  and back at ya. 

@FillyFlier16

Thanks and back at ya.

@crazy1464

You may be right ….. I guess we will find out in a few hours.   

bookies sometimes set the 'wrong' odds on purpose to bait people and play with their heads.. up to the capper to figure it out. people often take the bait, myself included unfortunately. odd setters know player and coach tendencies thats a major factor in any sport.

interesting you think the under makes sense here since the over in oilers home games in the playoffs is 4-1-1 scoring 7 4 4 3 3 5 while the stars in first 2 away in previous series scored 2 4 4 5.. in both game 6 it was 0 1. to me that looks like a tendency - dallas could go for a tight low scoring game here obviously but so far in first 2 away games in a series they havent

they are favs cuz they know they will get betting action lopsided to edm is why it is this way

@TheBudda

 The Oilers are basically no favorites here… you pay oddsmakers $20 a fee for your bet and when you add a home field advantage then in oddsmakers mind the Dallas is actually the favorites…. Dallas on the road is far more focused than at home …. I personally think they feed of the crowd energy…. The crowd generally generates an atmosphere for both teams not just the home team…. Oilers at home will be skating more aggressively which could result some odd man rushing for Dallas…. If you want to tell me that Edmonton is better than Colorado ….. my answer would be …. What are you smoking?? 

BOL

@papyo

 I understand where your coming from.    There was a situation a week and a half ago where  the line on the game was 6.5 but my numbers indicated it should clearly be an under situation - as you mentioned I was thinking a trick situation - instead of going crazy i took the under for a smaller amount - Final score 2-1.   I beleive it was Dallas and COL.   Yesterday was a classic example where the data I collect indicated under - the line was 5.5 but it went over - the lone data point i listed above.   I just stick to the process recognizing what your saying may or may not be the case - thus I don't go crazy on things.    I use a different methodology vice what your using.    I think a lot of folks may be thinking what your data indicates as the o/u line has jumped to 6 - appreciate your comments and wish you the bol either way.      

@TheBuddah

 You can cap the game to perfection but do you know how many penalties are going to be called??? How many high sticking penalties out of them with blood or not???? If all games are 5vs 5 then all data makes a sense but at times some unpredictable “crap” happens that you can not see unless you’re Nostradamus…

@burley

 Once again I get that  - For me it's not simply looking at the line and making a decision - it's the numbers that I Collect that support taking Edmonton in this situation. Is it guaranteed winner of course not - but I got rationale and I stick with it. 

@pt2win

 I just look at numbers and patterns while also considering the opening lines.   Not smoking anything.....tonite:)

@AnthonyStarks

 Thanks bud and back at ya.  

@pt2win

 That's where I think the oddsmakers consider those things when they put out the opening line.    If something out of the ordinary happens then yes I agree it becomes a crapshoot.    

Game Time - Bol either way.

i stopped bothering collecting stats long ago on any sports i bet on, well, i only bet on overs like most people because its easier to figure out. unders and sides for me requires you consider more factors like injuries, player form, to figure out both defense and offense etc you need to see the whole game like a professional player. with overs you look for tendencies and then you get lucky because ultimately no team ever plays for the over they play for the win and 1-0 is a win too but then there are matchups like this one where it smells like trading punches. i reckon game 4 also ends up over and games 5 and eventually 6,7 likely unders with dallas getting more cautious. thats the other thing about overs if the better team decides it will be under.. even god cant help you