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Lawton's Projections

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Posted: #376
Adding Nov 18

Washington (-120) NHL

La Tech Over 154.5 (CBB)

Gonzaga Over 147.5 (CBB)

1 unit each


 
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Posted: #377
Probability System
106-84 (+14.60 units)
55.79% Winners
(-109) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 41-27 (+11.70 units)
CFB: 21-18 (+1.30 units)
CBB: 9-7 (+1.30 units)
NFL: 12-12 (-0.90 units)
NBA: 14-14 (-1.90 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)

Nov 19

Rams Over 45.5 (66.20%)

Florida St Under 150 (66.50%)

Expect a play reduction, I have been letting in too many marginal plays, with a lower expected win %%%. No excuses, my fault.. 

Back later with my Top Nhl play, if lines come out as expected..
 
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Posted: #378
Add Nov 19

Vegas Over 5.5 (-120) (65.10%)

No further additions
 
Prospect
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Posted: #379

Bummed to hear you gave us less than your best. What is the strategy for your picks? Better than X% makes it a wager? Did you lower the cut off?

 
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Posted: #380

What happened with nhl dogs? Early on you mentioned we would see a fair amount.

 
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Posted: #381

Terrible week. Let's stay focused and turn it around. Lost 10 units this week. Best we have won is 2 or 3 in a week. 

 
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Posted: #382
Quote Originally Posted by 3DTV:

Terrible week. Let's stay focused and turn it around. Lost 10 units this week. Best we have won is 2 or 3 in a week. 



I have to ask...3D...do you think that you are somehow being encouraging? Do you even read your posts before you post?

Best we have won is 2 or 3? C'mon, man...YOU haven't won anything for anybody.

Please don't clutter up this thread. There's plenty of other garbage threads. Go whine in there.
 
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Posted: #383
3D is either a troll or just a loser... or both.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #384
Speaking the truth. Been tailing Lawton 100% but something went sour. Will see if we can get back to fundamentals.
 
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Posted: #385
TBH less is more. Basically up the same amount from a month ago. Been paying juice essentially. I'd like to see less bets and top picks only myself. 1 maybe 2 bets a day tops.
 
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Posted: #386
Quote Originally Posted by 3DTV:

Speaking the truth. Been tailing Lawton 100% but something went sour. Will see if we can get back to fundamentals.


Good gracious...

Uhhh...what "fundamentals" have you brought 3D?

I see a lot of questions, and requests, but fundamentals?

Please, for the love of all that is good, just stop.

Or, create a system of your own, post a season-long thread and we can follow along.


 
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Posted: #387
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

Add Nov 19

Vegas Over 5.5 (-120) (65.10%)

No further additions


Hey, Lawton.

Check DM please at best convenience.
 
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Posted: #388

New week, let's get it!

 
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Posted: #389
Probability System
107-86 (+13.40 units)
55.44% Winners
(-109) avg juice
1unit each

NHL: 42-27 (+12.70 units)
CBB: 9-8 (+0.20 units)
CFB: 21-18 (+1.30 units)
NFL: 12-13 (-2.00 units)
NBA: 14-14 (-1.90 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)

Monday

Nashville (-135)

West Virginia Over 157.5

1 unit each
 
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Posted: #390
Quote Originally Posted by 3DTV:

TBH less is more. Basically up the same amount from a month ago. Been paying juice essentially. I'd like to see less bets and top picks only myself. 1 maybe 2 bets a day tops.

Than start a thread giving your top picks... it's not easy predicting UDML winners.
 
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Posted: #391
Tuesday Nov 21

Stl. Blues (-140)

NHL: 43-27 (+13.70 units)

1 unit each

About even on everything else... Will update everything tomorrow.. I'm looking into dropping a few sports and focusing only on about 3 of them... 


 
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Posted: #392
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

Tuesday Nov 21

Stl. Blues (-140)

NHL: 43-27 (+13.70 units)

1 unit each

About even on everything else... Will update everything tomorrow.. I'm looking into dropping a few sports and focusing only on about 3 of them... 




I will never tell anyone how to spend their money. However, i think the removal of specific sports (likely due to a win% your not ok with) defeats the purpose. 

Under the assumption one of your preferred sports go on a cold streak (which according to logic, will happen.. the same applies to going on hot streaks) the lack of other sports could potentially lower that 57% significantly, where as the sports you chose to remove could actually benefit you and help sustain losses.

Again, your money and system, do as you wish. I just see this in some ways as grinding out wins to get to your 57%, and by removing sports COMPLETELY will result in a negative experience.
 
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Posted: #393
Quite a bit of work daily, when 5 sports are going at the same time.. 

I won't have my full model until mid Dec in college hoops.. I could limp along until then or I could just wait on my data..

Football is winding down and weather is going to come into play in many games. I'm thinking of dropping football, with the exception of maybe bowl season and the post season.. Not much regular season left.

I'm thinking of focusing on the NHL and NBA... I have went 10-5 last 15 NBA totals... I would pick up CBB in mid December...

This is sort of what I was thinking...
 
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Posted: #394
your logic actually makes sense in relation to the NFL weather elements playing more of a factor into things.. as well as your model not being fully ready to go (untill mid Dec.)..

It makes sense, and ofcourse my original response was based on not having this knowledge.

Again, your NBA totals have went 10-5 last 15.. but your expecting 57%.. so even to your own logic, that will not be sustainable (it can be, but likely not).. which is where my theory of not removing other sports from the equation.
 
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Posted: #395
Full card for Tuesday Nov 21

Blues (-140)

Lakers Over 210

1 unit each

Will update tomorrow....
 
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Posted: #396
Probability System
109-88 (+13.20 units)
55.33% Winners
1 unit each

NHL: 44-27 (+14.70 units)
CFB: 21-18 (+1.30 units)
CBB: 9-9 (-0.90 units)
NFL: 12-13 (-2.00 units)
NBA: 14-15 (-3.00 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)

Nov 22

Redwings -115
Washington Under 5.5 (-120)

Atlanta Under 209
New Orleans Under 208

1 unit each
 
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Posted: #397
What is the probability of 10 straight losing days? Think it might be time to start fading. LOL! WTF! 

This is exactly why sports betting is a complete trap. You cannot beat the juice. I am done tailing but I will still track this thread. Prove me wrong Lawton. Unfortunately I decided to increase my bet size at the worng time. Live and learn.

Good luck.
 
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Posted: #398
Quote Originally Posted by 3DTV:

What is the probability of 10 straight losing days? Think it might be time to start fading. LOL! WTF! 

This is exactly why sports betting is a complete trap. You cannot beat the juice. I am done tailing but I will still track this thread. Prove me wrong Lawton. Unfortunately I decided to increase my bet size at the worng time. Live and learn.

Good luck.



LOLLLLL... your an idiot.

Firstly, you NEVER EVER blindly tail someone. If you do. You deserve to lose.

Secondly, even if someone hits 57% of the time, they still lose 43%, which is going to account for many loses, some of which come in streaks.

I almost feel that your one of those undercover covers losers who make their best attempt to get rid of successful/potentially successful cappers.

To Lawton, keep doing what your doing.. the same way you were on fire, it was to be expected to go cold at some point. In the end, everything will balance itself out and you will be where you want to be. 

Money management, my friends!
 
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Posted: #399
Quote Originally Posted by 3DTV:

What is the probability of 10 straight losing days? Think it might be time to start fading. LOL! WTF! 

This is exactly why sports betting is a complete trap. You cannot beat the juice. I am done tailing but I will still track this thread. Prove me wrong Lawton. Unfortunately I decided to increase my bet size at the worng time. Live and learn.

Good luck.


Everytime 3D posts, I just cannot help think to myself:

"It's better to let someone think you are an idiot than to open your mouth and prove it."

Stop proving it, 3D!

Happy Thanksgiving nonetheless and let's get some birds on board.


 
 
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Posted: #400
Probability System
110-91 (+10.75 units) (+$5375)
54.73% Winners
(-109) avg juice
1 unit each

Thanksgiving

Minnesota Over 44.5
$550 to win $500
1 unit


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