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Lawton's (PS2) System

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Posted: #1
No, its not a video game system... Just short for Probability System Part 2... In this thread, I am going to run a minimum of 100 plays and I'm going to personally play them for $100 each.. You can call it a trial run, a "proof of concept", if you will.

If the 100 plays are profitable, of course I will continue to post the plays. Feel free to follow along or fade if you want...n

I'll discuss more as we move along... The plays will be multi-sport and will start today... We have plenty of games and I have 3 more days to do nothing and this is a project that I want to do publicly.

I will say this... I started with this model in 2009 and I simply cannot let it go.... I've had both good and bad runs with it over the past 9 years... However, this is the first time that I've used probability  with this model... My other thread, got me to thinking, why not combine the 2.... And today the PS2 system is launched...

I'll start the 100 plays later, when the lines get posted.... Feel free to follow or to comment along the way.....
 
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Posted: #2
Thanks Lawton1. Usually follow you unless you bet against the Penguins
 
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Posted: #3
(PS2) System
0-0 ($0)

Friday Nov 24

Central Mich +140 CFB
Buffalo +210 CFB
Fla. Int +140 CFB
Virginia +210 CFB

Brooklyn +160 NBA

Islanders +110 NHL

6 plays to start, I'm risking $100 on each..

There will be additions throughout the day...


 
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Posted: #4
Adding

Northeastern +120 CBB
St. Johns +120 CBB
NCST +190 CBB

Risking 1 unit $100 on each..

That's 9 plays to start with... There will be one more round of additions, posted later today...

Good luck to all. 
 
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Posted: #5
Alright guys, welcome to my new thread... I am hoping to accomplish 2 things in the thread... Post 100 plays and to turn a profit...

That's it, I don't want to put myself in any box in the thread... Normally I will try and post the plays a minimum of 1hr before any plays start..

Good luck to anyone that follows... I have nine plays pending and there will be a few more..

Back later..
 
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Posted: #6
Good luck Lawton, I will be tailing.. super excited!!
 
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Posted: #7
Interesting...all ML all the time with PS2? Or is this just an anomaly today?

UDML certainly helps with the juice...
 
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Posted: #8
Damn, u got to have a stomach for this system... Lost a tough one on Brooklyn and at +160 odds... Lost St. Johns also.. Still have 7 pending.. I'll have a little something to add later... 
 
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Posted: #9
Add Friday night Nov 24

Vancouver +125 nhl
Nashville +135 nhl

Gonzaga +140 cbb

Risking 1 unit ($100 each)

Probably no further additions today... Twelve games out of the 100 are in play.. Good luck if you follow..
 
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Posted: #10
In 2009 I began a search for a model that will predict plus money plays to win. This is my latest attempt to make this model work.. I have added probability into the equation for the first time ever. 

I played and posted 12 selections for today.. This was really not a large number, considering how many games were on the board. 

I do not want to release any predictions of how these 100 plays will do. We can just let them play out.. 
 
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Posted: #11
(PS2) System
2-2 (+$150)
Risking $100 on each

Pending Nov 24

Islanders +110
Vancouver +125
Nashville +135

FIU +140 CFB
Virginia +210 CFB

NCST +190 CBB
Northeastern +120 CBB
Gonzaga +140 CBB

Spending my day getting caught up on the CBB teams.. So many to deal with... 

Nice +210 winner on Buffalo CFB, good luck guys... 

Nothing more today but a minimum of 88 more in this thread...

 
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Posted: #12
(PS2) System
3-4 (+$60)
$100 risk on each

Pending

Vancouver +125
Nashville +135

Gonzaga +140 cbb

FIU +140 CFB
Virginia +210 CFB


 
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Posted: #13
(PS2) System
5-6 (+$135)
Risking $100 on each

Pending

Gonzaga +140


 
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Posted: #14
(PS2) System
5-7 (+$35)
Risking $100 on each

Came up about one win shy of what I wanted on Saturday, still wound up slightly profitable on the day.  

Back later with plays
 
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Posted: #15
Saturday Nov 25

Indiana +120 CFB
Syracuse +140 CFB
Stanford +140 CFB
Wash St +300 CFB

Risking $100 on each

Back later with other sports
 
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Posted: #16
Adding CBB plays

Ball St +120
Ga. Southern +130
Gardner Webb +150
Sam Houston St +160
Youngstown St +150
UMass +160
Siena +200
North Eastern +140

That's eight CBB day games, risking $100 on each.. 

That concludes all day games, there will be a posting for the night games in all sports.. Check back this afternoon..
 
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Posted: #17
Miss the totals Law great start wit the dogs.
 
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Posted: #18
This is a project that I had to address.. I could write a small book on the study of underdogs.. I could not come close to telling you the amount of time that I've put in over the years on this... I had to try and apply Probability to what I already had..

I'm trying to make this a unique way to invest in sports... If I can develop this model into hitting 46% against a +136 average line, in a mid volume situation, well you can do the math on this... 

Imagine collecting the juice from the books, betting into coin flip situations... The amount of money to be made under the radar is staggering... Just food for thought... 
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

This is a project that I had to address.. I could write a small book on the study of underdogs.. I could not come close to telling you the amount of time that I've put in over the years on this... I had to try and apply Probability to what I already had..I'm trying to make this a unique way to invest in sports... If I can develop this model into hitting 46% against a +136 average line, in a mid volume situation, well you can do the math on this... Imagine collecting the juice from the books, betting into coin flip situations... The amount of money to be made under the radar is staggering... Just food for thought...


Just to confirm my understanding.

Your first 100 plays in the original thread is all but done. You have now moved into this testing phase.. which you will be placing wagers on underdogs using your model that takes into account probability? with the hope and goal of hitting a minimum of 46% (which would obviously reap big profits)? 

If this proves to be successful, will you be continuing onto another 100? or will your attention shift elsewhere? if you know..

Look forward to your response. BOL moving forward. 

 
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Posted: #20
In the other thread, I ran through 200+ plays.. It was profitable for me... 

I wanted to use probability with plus plays in this thread... I'm risking 100 on each so I'm not practicing here... 

If this turns a profit, I'll most definitely continue on with the thread...
 
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Posted: #21
Adding Nov 25

Devils +120
Capitals +120
Wild +125
Jets +125

Risking $100 on each
 
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Posted: #22
(PS2) System
11-17 (-$105)

And I'm done, this is not helping me or anyone. 

I'll return when I have something to contribute to forum...

Good luck guys
 
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Posted: #23
CBB totals were doing well. 
 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

(PS2) System11-17 (-$105)And I'm done, this is not helping me or anyone. I'll return when I have something to contribute to forum...Good luck guys


Really Lawton?

you want to hit 45%? your betting 100/play? your not very far off from that goal. your down 1 unit. I personally do not believe there is any reason to panic or stop from contributing. Again, these are my thoughts.. not yours, but your not far off from what you wanna be doing.. and when picking underdogs the way you are, loosing days will happen, but so will winning ones.

I would love if you continued your theory, and give it more then 2 days.

On a side note, your original thread was doing very well too.. i didnt think there was any reason to cut that off either.

BOL though with what ever you decide to do. On a side note, DM me when you have a minute (tho i dont expect that to happen, you never got back to me originally lol)

 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

No, its not a video game system... Just short for Probability System Part 2... In this thread, I am going to run a minimum of 100 plays and I'm going to personally play them for $100 each.. You can call it a trial run, a "proof of concept", if you will.If the 100 plays are profitable, of course I will continue to post the plays. Feel free to follow along or fade if you want...nI'll discuss more as we move along... The plays will be multi-sport and will start today... We have plenty of games and I have 3 more days to do nothing and this is a project that I want to do publicly.I will say this... I started with this model in 2009 and I simply cannot let it go.... I've had both good and bad runs with it over the past 9 years... However, this is the first time that I've used probability  with this model... My other thread, got me to thinking, why not combine the 2.... And today the PS2 system is launched...I'll start the 100 plays later, when the lines get posted.... Feel free to follow or to comment along the way.....


Lawton, not busting balls...

read your first post. This is something that has been in the works for 9 years? and you yourself acknowledge both good and bad runs, yet, your throwing this out because of one bad day.. two days in? 

seems weird to me. i would encourage you to keep marching forward with it.

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