NHL Friday, January 8th (3 plays - beware of Calgary)

Great night Thursday 4-0 +4.83 winning Philadelphia +168, Nashville -0.5 -102, Vancouver -0.5 +100, and Detroit +115 which stole a win against the Kings.

All plays 1 unit

January 14-10-1 (+6.18); 6-5 sides incl. overtime (+3.10); 7-1 sides reg. (+6.08); 1-1-1 totals (+0.00); 0-3 overtime (-3.00)

December 50-43 (+22.77); 19-15 sides incl. overtime (+7.75); 14-5 sides reg. (+11.78); 11-9 totals (+0.94); 1-2 team totals (-1.18); 5-13 overtime (+2.08)
November 11-10 (+0.17); 4-4 sides incl. overtime (+0.09), 7-5 totals (+1.08), 0-1 puck line (-1.00)


New Jersey -0.5 reg. -125 - Tampa Bay is playing better hockey lately, but New Jersey is on another level. The Devils have won 15 of their last 17 home games with 14 of those 15 wins coming in regulation. Brodeur has posted consecutive shutouts at home defeating Pittsburgh 2:0 and Dallas 4:0. Tampa Bay is 6-11-5 on the road allowing 3.45 goals per game. New Jersey is the ranked 5th in the NHL on the power play while Tampa Bay is the 2nd most penalized team in the league. Although 6 of the last 10 meetings have went to overtime, New Jersey has won 10 consecutive games against Tampa Bay.

Buffalo -0.5 reg. -117 - Buffalo has won 5 games in a row averaging 3.80 goals while allowing 2.40. Toronto meanwhile has 3 wins in their last 11 games. The Maple Leafs are allowing 3.83 goals per game on the road while Buffalo allows only 2.17 at home. Toronto is last in the NHL killing off penalties and have allowed 9 power play goals in the last 17 attempts against. The Maple Leafs have been outscored 35:15 in their last 8 road games. In 2009, Buffalo was 9-0 against Toronto with 7 of the 9 wins coming in regulation. The Sabres are also 4-0 against the Maple Leafs this season.

Columbus money line incl. ot. +201 - Columbus ended a 4 game losing streak last night by winning in Edmonton 4:2. This victory was their first on the road in almost 2 months. Before this win, Columbus had played some very close games recently. They did lose 7:3 against Vancouver, but they lost on a late goal to Colorado, in overtime against Nashville, by 1 goal against the Islanders after defeating Detroit 1:0 in overtime the night before, and a 1 goal loss at Detroit. The effort is there. Speaking of effort, Calgary's was nowhere to be found in the 4:1 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday night. The Wild ended the Flames 5 game winning streak quite convincingly. With a big revenge game looming against Vancouver Saturday night, the Flames might come out flat again. After all, the Canucks crushed the Flames 5:1 in Calgary two days after Christmas. Despite Calgary picking up victories and Columbus picking up defeats, both teams have scored only 11 goals in their last 5 games. Even though Columbus allowed 7 goals against the Canucks, the Blue Jackets have been otherwise solid defensively allowing 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, and 2 goals. The Flames haven't been the dominant team some might expect as a favorite of -160 or more as they're only 7-5 this season in such situation. The Blue Jackets can definitely make a surprise here.

love jersey and buff. both possible pucklines. clb is intriguing at that price.

jersey should dominate tomorrow.

good job.....

Like Jersey and Buff as well but be aware very good chance Lalime goes for Buff tomorrow and Danis for Jersey...Still looking at those two myself but may wait on goalie info to see how I wanna approach them.....Great work and goodluck with all 3...

Lalime has been great the past few starts. Kaleta MIGHT be back. Either way take Buffalo.

I am 90% sure Calgary will have Curtis McElhinney in net for tomorrow nights game but I would still be careful taking the Jackets. The Flames OWN the Jackets at home, I think its something like 12 wins 1 loss in the last 13 at the dome. Coming off a loss an embarassing loss to the Wild the Flames will be ready to play. I think the right play in this game is the OVER.

Can't see the jackets taking this one. Nonetheless GL!

Great Picks Yesterday!

I like the Devils of TB.

Great night last night depressed. I tailed once again, in addition to adding in a PL play on Washington that hit.

One thought I wanted to pass along was on Buffalo...I posted a new thread two days ago about the increase in shots allowed by the Sabres as the season has progressed. They've averaged over 35 shots allowed in their last 5 games, and over the last 15 have allowed well over 30 per game, a big increase over the first quarter of the season. And in this span they've been on the PK 25% less, meaning they're giving up a ton more shots at even strength, meaning they're likely being outplayed more often. And this is by some mediocre clubs. Now I know Miler is a stud and maybe he can continue to stand on his head, but I think this trend has to bite them sooner or later.

Now consider the news reports out of Toronto that have Ron Wilson berating his team and naming names in front of the media the last few days. One would have to think they come out ready to play, and they'll have some fans in the crowd too.

I know it's hard to bet against Buffalo these days, but I really think they're due for a swoon here soon. I kinda like the Laffs at these odds tonight.

Thanks. Did you find those regulation numbers useful?

I read your post about the shots Buffalo is facing, but shots don't necessarily mean goals especially when you are getting good goaltending. Toronto has outshot Buffalo every time in the last 6 meetings yet has lost each of the games. Surprisingly, Buffalo is 19-5 this season when the opposition has more shots on goal than they do. When they have more shots than the opposition, they're only 8-6. New Jersey for example is 15-3 when they have fewer shots than the opponent.

Wilson can call out his team, but the fact remains they lack the skill and talent other teams have. The Maple Leafs have allowed 47 power play goals, the worst in the NHL by far. You may be right calling for an upset here, but I'll say Buffalo winning is worth the risk at the odds.

I can't argue with your logic. Buffalo is a far superior team. Toronto is pretty much awful. That said, motivated hockey clubs have a huge advantage, especially in mid-season meaningless tilts like this. Knowing you will get a team's A game, regardless of how good they are, has some value.

I also agree that shots don't tell the whole story, they're only one key stat. Plus, it seems Miller plays better seeing more shots. However I don't think you can give up 35 shots a game and be a dominating NHL team for very long. That's a lot of shots, meaning a lot of wear on your goalie, less time possessing the puck, more time skating to play defense, etc. These things may not hurt you in the short term, but they will long-term.

Anyway you're the hot one these days so I'm not inclined to go against you. Just sharing some thoughts.

By the way I played Nashville and Vancouver puck lines last night, based on your regulation plays. Both paid off handsomely.


Keep up the great work.

ya CBJ one thier first in five last night but that was against EDM not the best team around who was playing like a 4th string goalie who I've barely even heard of wasnt that impressive to me

that being said GL tonight I'm with you on NJ and BUF

mrweed - I know what you are saying and Miller has definitely cooled off so it will be interesting to see how the rest of the season shapes up for the Sabres. Until they hit a rough patch though, I'll have to side with them here considering the Leafs poor form. I like seeing interesting angles and predictions such as the one you've come across or formed, so I'll definitely be keeping my eye on it. Good luck tonight.

avsfan - Calgary has 5 wins in their last 6 games. 2 came against Edmonton and 1 came against Toronto.

Depressed any reason why you don't like Colorado tonight?

I know you noticed the improved play from Carolina  few weeks back, but they seem to have dipped again, and they're without Staal again tonight. Colorado at -125 seems like a decent value, no?

Both teams look rather even in their last 5. I know Staal is out, but laying money on the road with a non-elite team isn't exactly my thing.

I like your assesment of the Leafs game. They have been leading the league for some time now in the shots per game stats. And where has that gotten them? You can almost make the arguement that the Leafs are good value every night, but is tonight that night?  Coach Wilson has been ripping his team all year, players getting used to that. Buff owns T.O. this year. The Leafs were dreadful last time out... GL on your picks tonight

depressed my odds on that columbus game have dipped to +160...that's probably not good enough value huh?

"The Flames haven't been the dominant team some might expect as a favorite of -160 or more as they're only 7-5 this season in such situation." McElhinney is a big step down from Kiprusoff, so I'd still take Columbus as long as they're +150 or better. There are a lot of things in Columbus favor tonight situationally. I'm convinced bets similar to this will show profit over time.

Same kind of thoughts I have. The Leafs may surprise tonight, but the chances of that happening are far less than Buffalo winning in regulation by my calculation.

I like it D -

BOL tonight