NHL Monday Preview and Discussion

1PM GAMES:

Ottawa @ Boston: Projected starters are Mandolese vs. Swayman. Ottawa is 7-2-1 in their L10. Not much line movement at all. It's early but vsin has both the money line and puck line splits heavily favoring the Bruins in terms of handle & percentage of bets. The Sens beat the Bruins in their last 3 games (all in 2022) with the last one being a 3-2 shootout win on 12/27/2022. Earlier in the season the Sens won 7-5 but both of these wins were in Ottawa. Under is 6-0 in Senators last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Under is 8-1-1 in Bruins last 10 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. 

Anaheim @ Florida: Projected starters are John Gibson vs. Bobrovsky. Both teams have gone over a lot of late; Florida is 8-2-0 O/U in their L10 and Anaheim is 7-3-0 O/U in their L10. Florida is the heavy, heavy favorite. The opening line jumped up a bit from -386 to -420 and of course the majority of handle and tickets are on Florida. Florida beat Anaheim 5-3 in November in Anaheim. Anaheim is coming off 4 straight losses with all games going over. Florida is coming off a blowout loss against the Predators. Everything points toward the over with the total opening at 7; Over is 8-0 in Ducks last 8 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 following a loss of 3 or more goals. Over is 8-1-1 in Panthers last 10 home games. This morning on FanDuel you could bet Florida and Over 5.5 (all in reg) at -125. This parlay will probably jump to 7.5 (not sure why FD jumps from 5.5 to 7.5 in these preset parlays).

 4PM Games:

Seattle @ San Jose: Projected Goalies are Grubauer v. Reimer. Kraken beat Sharks 8-5 in Seattle in late November. Kraken have won 3 of last 4. San Jose has lost 3 straight only scoring 1, 1 and 2 goals in those games. 

Philadelphia @ Calgary: Projected Goalies are Hart v. Markstrom. Flames are pretty big favorites here. What I found interesting is the Flyers PL record on the road is 20-9 and the Flames PL record at home is 7-20. BUT the Flames beat the Flyers handily back in November by a score of 5-2 in Philadelphia. Flames are coming off an OT win against the Rangers. The Flames are 3-0-1 vs. the Philadelphia Flyers over the last three seasons. Flyers have dropped 4 straight and only won 2 of their L10. Flyers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Western Conference. Flyers are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Calgary.

7PM Games:

NYI @ Pittsburgh: Both teams are clinging onto the 2 wild card spots with Florida, Buffalo, Washington, Detroit and Ottawa breathing down their necks. The Isles have won both games this season; 5-4 last week and 5-1 in December with both games in on the Island. Projected goalies are Sorokin v. Jarry. Isles have lost 4 of last 5. Pens have lost 3 of last 4. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. Home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Slight line jump to Pens favor.

WPG @ NYR: Projected goalies are Rittich v. Igor. Jets on a b2b after losing to the Devils yesterday. Jets beat Rangers earlier this season 4-1 in Winnipeg. Jets are 1-8-1 O/U in their L10 whereas the Rangers are 7-3-0 O/U. Something has to give and with Rittich in net, I know which way I'd lean. Rags have been red hot of late, even coming back late against the Flames the other night. 

Please feel free to add notes, comments and predictions to this thread.

A Most Excellent Preview Omega!

Nyi should rebound after that beating they just took

Jets worth a shot and GOOD price

Sharks shock the world today and beat the kraken 

Fla Over 7 goals should happen

Sharks to play well on holidays, especially in the day. I think 4-3 sharks

The Pens also took somewhat of a beating on home ice Saturday, not to mention they dropped an away game to the Isles on Friday. Interesting matchup. 

@Moose6836

 The Oilers and Jets both selling also cost me. If one of them wins, I end up pretty good yesterday. But thankfully the Yotes made it a break even day. Oilers are definitely on the do not trust list for a bit. If I didn't take the Jets last night, which I thought was a good spot, I would give them a harder look tonight. Rittich scares me but to his defense, he has only given up 2 goals in each of his last 2 games (against CBJ & SEA, 1 win and 1 loss).

@Charo757

 I thought the same thing. Also the home team in this series has been the bet of late. I guess some of it will depend on how Jarry looks if he's in. 

The Sens looked like the team they COULD be yesterday, though the Blues looked pretty shaky.

Bruins are merciless, and will be a good checkup on Ottawa’s progress or lack thereof. The things the Sens were doing to the Blues yesterday offensively, were signs of a confident group.

@IntenseOperator

 oof yeah that's right. Don't love the first game back after a road trip spot. 

@Gainsford

 Good info.

I was shocked to see the Sens 5 points out of the Wildcard spot with 4 games in hand on NYI. Win a few of those and you are much closer than you have any business being. Boston will be a good test for them (who they've been good against of late). Their goaltending is the only big question mark here.

Great write up again Omega, thanks. Just want to point out Rags are playing 3rd in 4 days, and 4th in 6. And are returning from a west coast trip where they played some pretty tough games and, as you say they have been trying to come from behind which always requires extra effort. Might be some tired legs?

Anyway, best of luck today as always.

@rustie

 GREAT points rustie. This is definitely a spot where I can see so many casual NHL bettors going with the Rangers but it being a potential let down spot. In my opinion the 3 biggest parlay pieces today will be Florida, Boston & NYR.  I could see some tired legs in NY. Upon first glance, anyone could look at this game and think Rangers easily but when digging deeper you see the warning signs. Thanks for pointing that out. Will the Jets lose 3 straight on the road or steal one in the Garden? 

IF ??? you are of the mind that the Cats may be shaky returning home, Anahem and over 5.5 can be had at pinny for 6.50 (+550) ?

Any thoughts on WIN/NYR totals?

Don't know what others have Gain, but I'm getting mostly Unders for Jets/Rags, but it's close. Pinny has them at 1.943 each which tells me 6 is the right number, so?

I think Seattle crushes Sharks and I’ll be taking them in regulation… my first time backing them this year. (Or ever) lol

Hey Omega,

For sure, excellent preview write-ups...thanks!  Leaving the 3 big home faves (FLA,BOS,CGY) out of the discussion, it's tough to see a clear choice on the other 3 matchups.  Even SEA @ SJ is pretty evenly split here in the forum.  The Kraken are takin' care of business and are almost the L word (lol) to at least get a WC spot if they can't hold onto 3rd in the Pacific.  Everybody's running in place in the West right now which favors the Kraken, of course, and at 17-8-3 they certainly qualify as road warriors (T-2 with EDM in the West after VGK).

Karas' thread comment about the weird scheduling is worth considering.  On their current homestead Seattle won the first 2 handily (PHI,DET), and they know the Bruisers (BOS,TOR) are coming to town at the end of the week.  So today is the sandwich game in SJ and they could be distracted, like Karas says.  When they beat Philly they were big ML faves and got more than 80% of the bucks.  Detroit came in as the live dog/fan fave and got the early bucks but by puck drop Seattle was getting more than 70% of the bucks and the ML was up there.  Today the Kraken are on the road against (as you say), an underperforming team that can't hardly find the basket, much less put the damn biscuit in it.  And versus a goalie who hasn't played since Jan 27th, Seattle's getting the BIG bucks now (85-90%) but the ML isn't keeping pace like it did when they beat Philly and Detroit.  What to make of that?  Not sure, but everything points to the Kraken - except that the books seem to be giving them a significant discount.  Sure being on the road will drop their price, but this is noticeable.  So maybe they do get distracted thinking about the upcoming marquee games.  The day is still young; still time to see what happens in the public square.

Cheers  

Ulmark confirmed. 

bruins and under 

And Bruins PL moves to -2.5 yikes. Bruins are probably beating the hell out of Ottawa. Sens haven't scored less than 3 goals in last 8 games and yet their team total of 2.5 moved from +120 to +140!!

150 at my book lol.

Omega...

My 2 quick thoughts. 

1. Ducks will be starting a game at 10:00 a.m. their body time. 

2. As mentioned, Rags 4 in 6, all with travel and last two going to OT. Give me the Jets in that one. 

Really becoming more golf time, hitting 80s here all week. Sorry Rustie. 

ugh, I wanted ducks over 2.5. May still play it, Bob stinks. 

I had that exact thought when van played Detroit last week and knew they’d get throttled. Didn’t play it but low and behold lol

g’mornin! 

LMAO Intense...leave it to you to find that one nugget in there someplace!!!  Am I wrong...could Wilson be moonlighting as Gavin Newsom???

PS - I meant to give you a shout out yesterday in Omega's thread for your "shots fired" comment...too funny.  But it wasn't like I was throwing down the gauntlet at Team Ottawa.  I was just gently coaxing them to give it a go for their fans.

Still too early for me to decide, but definitely leaning Sharks.  X factor goalie...again...grrrrrrrr!!!  

Cheers  

@IntenseOperator

 Also leaning Sharks in this one. And many good points on this game by @DB51daBEARS as well. It's not something most will get down with but picking a dog is never pretty ahead of time.