NHL Projections

Question

I&#x27;ve been using last 10 games team statistics and individual goalie statistics to project game by game so far this season. Betting mostly on Underdogs, Short Favorites and Unders, I&#x27;ve compiled a 46-34 (57.5%) record, for a profit of 12.83 units, flat-betting one unit per play. I&#x27;m going to start posting my individual game projections here and see how they continue to do. I have a Google sheet as well documenting my picks. I realize that the small sample means little to nothing, and I&#x27;m not touting this as a foolproof thing, just going to track the picks here.Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia FlyersVasilevskiy vs Mason: TB 2.95 PHI 1.88Since I won&#x27;t have the whole slate finished before this game starts, I&#x27;ll post it first. Home ice is accounted for in the projection. Tampa Bay &#x2B;109 @ Philadelphia is definitely a play for me today. Will post the rest of the slate when I have it done. Good Luck.

BCap888 · Answer

I&#x27;ve been using last 10 games team statistics and individual goalie statistics to project game by game so far this season. Betting mostly on Underdogs, Short Favorites and Unders, I&#x27;ve compiled a 46-34 (57.5%) record, for a profit of 12.83 units, flat-betting one unit per play. I&#x27;m going to start posting my individual game projections here and see how they continue to do. I have a Google sheet as well documenting my picks. I realize that the small sample means little to nothing, and I&#x27;m not touting this as a foolproof thing, just going to track the picks here.Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia FlyersVasilevskiy vs Mason: TB 2.95 PHI 1.88Since I won&#x27;t have the whole slate finished before this game starts, I&#x27;ll post it first. Home ice is accounted for in the projection. Tampa Bay &#x2B;109 @ Philadelphia is definitely a play for me today. Will post the rest of the slate when I have it done. Good Luck.

bold27 · Answer

Good luck BC

BCap888 · Answer

I use Daily Faceoff for goalie confirmations so I'll post games as they have both goalies confirmed.

Florida Panthers -113 @ Ottawa Senators +102 (5, Ov -108 / Un -102)

Luongo vs Anderson: FLA 1.17 OTT 0.90

I like Under 5 -102 in this one.

Toronto Maple Leafs +142 @ Montreal Canadiens -157 (5.5, Ov +108 / Un -119)

Andersen vs Price: TOR 1.34 MON 2.89

I think this game is lined correctly, so I'll pass.

Colorado Avalanche +169 @ Minnesota Wild -188 (5, Ov +104 / Un -115)

Pickard vs Dubnyk: COL -0.21 MIN 1.29

Yes, my numbers project Colorado to score less than 0 goals. I like the Under 5 -115.

So far I've got:

Tampa Bay +109

Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5 -102

Colorado/Minnesota UNDER 5 -115

BCap888 · Answer

Nashville Predators &#x2B;101 @ St Louis Blues -111 (5, Ov -122 / Un &#x2B;111)Rinne vs Allen: NSH 2.37 STL 0.99I project Nashville by more than a goal and they&#x2019;re dogs. I&#x2019;ll be on them.So far I&#x27;ve got:Tampa Bay &#x2B;109Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5 -102Colorado/Minnesota UNDER 5 -115Nashville &#x2B;101

BCap888 · Answer

New Jersey Devils &#x2B;127 @ Los Angeles Kings -140 (5, Ov &#x2B;130 / Un -143)Schneider vs Budaj: NJ 1.52 LA 2.21Line seems right, no play.So far I&#x27;ve got:Tampa Bay &#x2B;109Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5 -102Colorado/Minnesota UNDER 5 -115Nashville &#x2B;101

BCap888 · Answer

Pittsburgh Penguins -166 @ Buffalo Sabres +150 (5, Ov -131 / Un +119)

Fleury vs Nilsson: PIT 1.89 BUF 1.77

No play for me. There may be some line value on Buffalo, but I only back teams that I project to actually win the game. Too many goals for an Under 5 play as well. Pass.

BCap888 · Answer

Winnipeg Jets &#x2B;149 @ Boston Bruins -165 (5, Ov -134 / Un &#x2B;122)Hutchinson vs Rask: WIN 1.24 BOS 2.32Nothing there.Edmonton Oilers &#x2B;109 @ Dallas Stars -120 (5.5, Ov -105 / Un -105)Talbot vs Lehtonen: EDM 1.53 DAL 2.14This projection is a little bit too high on the goals for me to go Under. But it&#x27;s close.So far I&#x27;ve got:Tampa Bay &#x2B;109Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5 -102Colorado/Minnesota UNDER 5 -115Nashville &#x2B;101

BCap888 · Answer

San Jose Sharks -167 @ Arizona Coyotes &#x2B;151 (5, Ov -131 / Un &#x2B;119)Jones vs Smith: SJ 1.41 ARI 2.24Dell vs Smith: SJ 1.41 ARI 1.59Arizona &#x2B;151 is a play for me regardless of who is in net for San Jose. No opinion on the total.So far I&#x27;ve got:Tampa Bay &#x2B;109Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5 -102Colorado/Minnesota UNDER 5 -115Nashville &#x2B;101Arizona &#x2B;151

BCap888 · Answer

Chicago Blackhawks -145 @ Vancouver Canucks +131 (5.5, Ov +141 / Un -155)

Darling vs Markstrom: CHI 1.76 VAN 1.59

I would tend to lean Under 5.5, but the juice is way too high. No play.

So the 5 plays for today:

Tampa Bay +109

Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5 -102

Colorado/Minnesota UNDER 5 -115

Nashville +101

Arizona +151

BCap888 · Answer

11/20Columbus Blue Jackets &#x2B;172 @ Washington Capitals -191 (5, Ov -128 / Un &#x2B;116)Bobrovsky vs Holtby: CBJ 2.15 WSH 2.15McElhinney vs Holtby: OFFMcElhinney vs Grubauer: OFFBobrovsky vs Grubauer: CBJ 2.55 WSH 2.15I like the Blue Jackets as long as the line stays up above &#x2B;160 or so once the goalies are confirmed, and as long as Bobrovsky is in net. I don&#x2019;t have a projection for McElhinney because I only use stats for goalies with at least 100 minutes.

BCap888 · Answer

Winnipeg Jets &#x2B;133 @ Carolina Hurricanes -147 (5.5, Ov &#x2B;122 / Un -134)Hellebuyck vs Ward: WIN 2.34 CAR 2.07Hutchinson vs Ward: WIN 2.34 CAR 2.55If it&#x2019;s Hellebuyck for Winnipeg and they remain dogs, I&#x2019;ll be on them.

BCap888 · Answer

Florida Panthers &#x2B;158 @ New York Rangers -175 (5.5 Ov &#x2B;118 / Un -130)Luongo vs Lundqvist: FLA 2.00 NYR 3.76Reimer vs Lundqvist: FLA 2.00 NYR 4.75If anything this game would get a look to the Over, but I&#x2019;m not going to play it even if it&#x2019;s Reimer.

BCap888 · Answer

Calgary Flames &#x2B;129 @ Detroit Red Wings -143 (5, Ov -129 / Un &#x2B;117)Johnson vs Mrazek: CAL 1.23 DET 1.21Elliott vs Mrazek: CAL 1.23 DET 2.01Elliott vs Howard: CAL 0.04 DET 2.01Johnson vs Howard: CAL 0.04 DET 1.21If Howard is in net I like the Under 5 &#x2B;117. And although I project a Flames victory in a Johnson vs Mrazek matchup, there&#x2019;s not enough of an edge to justify playing only &#x2B;129. If that line were to go up then I could get behind that play.

BCap888 · Answer

Los Angeles Kings &#x2B;133 @ Anaheim Ducks -147 (5, Ov -110 / Un &#x2B;100)Budaj vs Gibson: LOS 2.54 ANA 1.56Zatkoff vs Gibson: LOS 2.54 ANA 3.56Zatkoff vs Bernier: LOS 2.06 ANA 3.56Budaj vs Bernier: LOS 2.06 ANA 1.56If Budaj is in net I like the Kings &#x2B;133. If it happens to be Zatkoff vs Gibson then I&#x2019;d be on the Over 5 -110, as long as it stays at 5 with small juice.

BCap888 · Answer

So conditionally the card will be:Columbus &#x2B;172 (Bobrovsky)Winnipeg &#x2B;133 (Hellebuyck)Calgary/Detroit Under 5 &#x2B;117 (Howard)Los Angeles &#x2B;133 (Budaj)Los Angeles/Anaheim Over 5 -110 (Zatkoff/Gibson)

BCap888 · Answer

Yesterday was 2-1-2 for a profit of 1.60 Units. These projections have been at their best this year when backing Underdogs of &#x2B;115 or greater. In 19 games they are 14-5 for a profit of 13.57 Units. They are also 15-7-2 when playing Under the total for 6.77 Units. Hopefully we can cash some more tickets today. GL

BCap888 · Answer

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YeaN7gvrqnoeCZCGWUDfFulxiTSuc4a10Kz_5G6XcEM/edit?usp=sharing

BCap888 · Answer

Big Dog win by Columbus. Confirming Calgary/Detroit Under 5 &#x2B;110 as a play.

BCap888 · Answer

Winnipeg &#x2B;133 confirmed. GL

BCap888 · Answer

Los Angeles &#x2B;149 confirmed.

BCap888 · Answer

Calgary Flames &#x2B;114 @ Buffalo Sabres -126 (5, Ov -113 / Un &#x2B;102)Elliott vs Lehner: CAL 0.96 BUF 1.53No play on the side, slight lean to the Under 5. I&#x2019;ll make that a play.

BCap888 · Answer

Chicago Blackhawks &#x2B;107 @ Edmonton Oilers -118 (5.5, Ov &#x2B;125 / Un -138)Crawford vs Talbot: CHI 1.84 EDM 1.38I&#x2019;ll play the Blackhawks &#x2B;107 as road dogs. Not a fan of the combination of the juice on the Under 5.5 with the number of goals projected, so I&#x2019;ll pass on the total.

BCap888 · Answer

New Jersey Devils &#x2B;208 @ San Jose Sharks -233 (5, Ov &#x2B;110 / Un -121)Kinkaid vs Jones: NJ 2.00 SJ -0.02My numbers point to Kinkaid and the big underdog Devils shutting down the Sharks. I&#x2019;ll test those numbers and make New Jersey &#x2B;208 the third play of the night.

BCap888 · Answer

New York Rangers &#x2B;145 @ Pittsburgh Penguins -161 (5.5, Ov &#x2B;107 / Un -118)Raanta vs Fleury: NYR 4.09 PIT 2.59I&#x2019;m taking the Underdog Rangers and the Over 5.5 in this one.

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