Taking the Wild here...
Minnesota is the top team in the league in generating expected goals at 5 on 5 so far this season, while Pittsburgh is 4th. They're also 5th in high danger scoring chances at 5 on 5, just above the Penguins. The Wild have been up and down lately, but they generated over 70% of the expected goals and high danger scoring chances multiple times this season. That's insane. Those were against the Senators, Canucks, Ducks (2x) and Jets, so not the BEST teams, but it's still impressive.
The Penguins have only generated above 60% expected goals once apart from Tampa's hangover game in the opener, and that was against the lowly Blackhawks. Another thing going for the Wild is that they have scored 9% LESS goals than expected. That tells me that their scoring is more than sustainable. Actually, they should be scoring more when regression to the mean kicks in.
I wasn't all that impressed with the Penguins last game against the Flyers although they won, and the previous game they lost against the Devils, so things aren't exactly as high as earlier in October for them.
I think Minnesota will give the Penguins all they can take and cover the puckline for the first time this season.
Good luck!
Last post was a big fat L with the Sabres barely showing up against the Sharks in what seemed like a good value spot for Buffalo.
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