OVER/UNDER lines in 2023

These over/under lines are completely nuts. The default line is now 6.5. 5 years ago the normal line was 5.5 and in some matchups for teams with good goaltenders/defense like New York Rangers or Ducks you could see a 4.5 line.. 6.5 is the norm now. 5 years ago the 5.5 line was the 50-50 line at 1.90 - 1.90 or like 1.80 - 2.10, you could take the alternative 6.5 line and you woul get 70-30 or 75-25 odds of 3.10 - 1.35 / 3.30 - 1.30 for over 6.5..

Statistically we might still be getting a lot of overs, I dont know. But do people enjoy touching the over when the line is like this? 6.5 is just so insane.

Basically when you are betting on over 6.5, you are betting that BOTH teams will score 3 goals which averages out to BOTH teams to score in every period. The only other way that you can without both teams scoring 3 is if 1 team scores 5 GOALS. 

5 GOALS!!!!. AND even then you arent guaranteed to win as the team scoring 5 could win 5-0 or 5-1, in that case you still need the losing team to put up 2 goals..

When we had the 5.5 line as the default so many overs was won in this fashion: Score is 2-2 going into the 3rd period, one team scores within the first 15-17 minutes of the period to go up 3-2 and then other team pulls goalie and the game ends 4-2. This killed a lot of under 5.5s but this wont kill 6.5s. And, when u have a 2-1 score going into the 3rd you might have each team score a goal in the period, or the trailing team scoring 2 goals in the 3rd, again, this gives us a 3-2 score line and then we will again see the goalie pulled to put a 5.5 line in jeopardy - but not a 6.5 line.

TL;DR: A 6.5 line is completely nuts. It means u need BOTH teams to score 3 goals each or 1 team to score 5+ (and even then its not guaranteed). A team scoring 4 goals doesnt do anything, u still need the other team to score 3. For me, if I hate the goaltenders on two teams and I love the offenses im still not going to bet over. The line is insane.

yeah… completely agree. Overs aren’t the same like they were 5-10 years ago 

I'm doing two team over 5.5 goal parlays and so far it's not been great.  1 win and two losses.  May have to change things up and start parlaying under 7.5s instead.  I hate taking unders I find I always lose when I'm on an under but it's beyond ridiculous.  Today the best over I felt was pens/caps, caps couldn't score if their lives depended on it so that had no shot at all.

I feel this

@Asomugha

 Good thread….Yes a definite uptick on posted totals and moving the base number to 6.5, makes the over much more tricky. But it’s not a given for the U either, with OT and empty netters, Might be tough season, and already seeing some of these lines at -40, -45!! 

I’ve been checking the Sv% numbers each night, with a lot of tenders turning in 750-800 data. Assuming some of these will tighten up but I also think there is some pretty suspect netminding out there. And this relentless pace..it’s a fast game. 

But all that said, we are getting some Unders this far. Last year I had to take almost exclusively Overs by Christmas time. And one thing that seemed to be a regular occurrence was these 3rd period onslaughts…4,5 goals in the 3rd.

BOL this season

I been crushing over 6.5 past 2 seasons. Mostly look for ones I like based off movement and then I use parx book to bet a lot of 7s and 7.5s and like +140 and +200.  Been extremely profitable for me. Looking to do mostly the same this season. I try to stay away from games where the ML is over -200 so it's a more 2 sided affair. This is the league now. You're gonna get tons more empty nets and a lot of 3-3 games. 

I think it was 2 years ago the record for the number of players (134?) that scored more than 20 goals in a year.  and last year was almost as high.  What I think it means is that you get Goal production from all 4 lines on a lot of teams, so scoring 4 or 5 a game is easier to achieve.  Back 30 years ago, you had your #1 and #2 scoring lines, then your third line was your checking line who you matched with the other teams #1, and your 4th line which was your enforcer line and or give the top three lines a breather.  Those 3rd & 4th ines never got more than maybe 60 goals total from all 6 players.  

Today's game, most 3rd and 4th Liners can pot 10-15 each, and I think that's why the numbers just keep moving up.  As Gainsford said, the Goalies of today are facing top scoring chances all game long from all 4 lines, so more pucks will go in.

Very good point about scoring from all 4 lines. Vegas and Florida last year were prime examples of this. 

@Gainsford

Yeah absolutely, im not saying to bet on unders blindly, just on a personal level even if I like the "overs" in the sense that I think theres bad goaltending / really potent offenses like in the case of a team like Oilers, im probably not gonna touch the over anyway. To me its either I take the under or I stay away. 

@AnthonyStarks

 Glad to see youre finding success on it. What do you look for in terms of movement? Is this to squeeze some %s in the long term or because u think the movement is indicative of an outcome?