Powercore's NHL Picks 2021

GL tonite powercore, nice card 

Thanks sportschat and kmoore. Getting a good price on Boston at home, Pens been winning a lot of close ones, but they still having struggles defensively and Bruins have owned them at home beating the Pens the last 8 times in Boston.  I think this is a flat spot for the Sabres coming off the big win in Washington, Rangers will be fired up to put an end to their losing streak against a team they have beat 7 out the last 9 games in Buffalo. Columbus held their own against Tampa, playing quality hockey right now against a Florida team coming off Covid layoff and has struggling mightly in Columbus dropping their last 7 games there. Blackhawks are flat out playing better than Nashville right now, I think this is 50/50 game with good plus money value on the Hawks against the struggling Preds. Stars should be able to whip a hapless Red Wings team at home,  Knights are beasts at home, and the Sharks in a bad spot with porous defense against the offensive juggernaut of Colorado.  I feel really good about tonight, and their is no reason why it shouldn't be a good one! 

Hey man. I got poached by Covers Experts so I'm on there for hockey under Forum Legends. That means I'm limited with what I can say to not give away my picks before the games. I still like checking on the forum and chiming in.

Good luck tonight and every night and see you around 

@AJMay

 Congrats on making covers legends that is one heck of an accomplishment.  Your system, picks, and analysis were always top notch and I learned a great deal about NHL capping from your threads. So thanks man, and good to see you on here it means a lot.

there is such parity in the NHL, everything is close

2021 NHL Season Results 27-37 -7.57u 
Current Week Results 2-6 -4.43
Yesterday Results 2-5 -3.43u

1-27-21

Blackhawks +160 1u to win 1.6u
Canucks -145 1.45u to win 1u

@sportschat

 Yeah it was pretty rotten luck I had yesterday with teams blowing leads late and then losing in OT, had another puck line favorite win by 1.  None of my picks were rotten last night, just come up on the short end of the stick on a lot of close games.  Just have to keep plugging away and eventually things will turn around.

Thanks powercore, much appreciated

I remember you did a lot of work with tracking situational trends that was definitely useful to know. I actually have something that will check ROI if I'm able to filter it properly. I'll find the thread and see what I can do with that.

@AJMay

 The biggest thing we should track with the schedule having teams play each other twice in a row often is the revenge records for each team and how well they do in the 2nd of series after they win the first game. Plus head to head records and goal differentials should play a bigger factor with the added sample size we gonna get on head to head matchups.

I did a short (2 weeks sample size) of the twice in a row scenario. Currently a teams sweep at 52% and split at 48%. The thing I DID NOT do was to see what the HOME team did on those 2 game series. I enjoy the analysis you bring. 

@GASportsDoc

 Yeah on an aggregate it does really give us much, but usually the revenge and goal differential on team by team is more useful.  Some teams respond and make adjustments differently in these spots

@AJMay

 Also, AJ do you have any good sites on goalie advanced stats such has save pct on high danger chances.  Capping goalies is tricky; win-loss record, save pct., GAA doesn't really give a clear picture on how a good a goalie is.

Good ideas guys, I'll take a look and see what I can dig up.

I use natural stat trick dot com and they have advanced goalie stats like the ones you mentioned. I

 like to compare expected goals to their goals allowed stats and come up with a goals saved above expected number.

2021 NHL Season Results 28-38 -7.57u 
Current Week Results 3-7 -4.43u
Yesterday Results 1-1 +0.0u

1-28-21

Bruins -120 1.2u to win 1u
Lightning -137 1.37u to win 1u
Devils +150 1u to win 1.5u 
Islanders -123 1.23u to win 1u
Canadiens -120 1.2u to win 1u
Stars PL -1.5 +145 1u to win 1.45u
Avalanche PL -1.5 +105 1u to win 1.05u
Maple Leafs -125 1.25u to win 1u
Canucks PL -1.5 +160 1u to win 1.6u

GL powercore 

BOL Powercore...like your write-ups!!

Cheers 

@sportschat

@DB51daBEARS

 Thanks fellas! Give you a little writeup on the plays

Boston is very simple, they are a better team with a better goalie, and they at home, and they own the Pens at home, and price is cheap.

The Lightning are better team and better goalie, Carolina has been off for week so rusty and possibly conditioning issues as well as 5 other guys still on Covid list, Lightning 14-5 in last 19 at Carolina.

Devils are equally matched with Philly especially at home in my opinion. Devils already 2-0 in this revenge scenario and those against the Bruins and Isles so not too shabby. Also, +150 is just monster value in a coin flip game.

Isles are 7-1 in last 8 trips to Washington. The Capitals are missing way too guys at this point, I think they have trouble winning even they had all their guys honestly. Isles with Verlomov in net and Isles hungry coming off 2 losses.  Have to take the Isles.

The Habs are rolling and the offense clicking on all cylinders, the chemistry looks wonderful to start the season. Flames a forbiddable foe, but simply outclassed here at the moment and they have had virtually no success in Montreal losing their last 5 there.

The puck line bets are on just flat out mismatches. The Red Wings are bad, and Stars Cup contenders and will want to flex their muscle tonight after last nights lackluster win. We all seen what the Canucks did the last 2 games against Ottawa and it wasn't even close to competitive.  Sharks just do not defensively matchup and the goaltending is bad against a juggernaut like Aves, Aves probably score more than 7 tonight. 

Maple Leafs will put the goals again against the struggling Oilers tendy, again Maple Leafs better team more depth and a better goalie laying a short price over a team they have dominated in recent years.

Thanks very much, Powercore...appreciate you 

Like the card PC...any concerns with newbie in net in Dallas? Watched that game the other night and they played down to competition. Due to pick it up tonight. As a Pens fan, I have to admit you are correct in your assessment. And yes, the Caps are a MASH unit. 

@GASportsDoc

 From what I am looking from the box score it was a ugly, poorly played game by both sides where Dallas was definitely flat and playing down and not anything Red Wings really did.  So I think they were unhappy with that performance and will show this inferior team how good they really are, and also I think they figured something out from last nights game and feel confident they can throw the noob and still get it done even though I was expected Khudiden in net when i plopped down the bet.  I may throw in a little parlay on Stars ML and over, just so I can still win if the noob struggles a bit they only win by 1.

Revenge angles

The sample size is tiny but..

Devils 2-0 in revenge games and +3 goal differential 

Red Wings 2-1 but -2 diff.

The interesting one found considering I am playing Aves anyway 

Sharks are 2-0 and +3

Aves on the reverse revenge meaning the follow up game after winning the first are remarkably 0-2 and -4 diff.

So one could make a case for the Sharks with this angle but I still can't do it.

@GASportsDoc

 I just did a little research on the new goalie in net for Dallas, Oettinger. He has a .917 save pct. and 2.57 GAA in AHL, which are both strong respectable stats for goalies. 

I read articles where he is tabbed the goalie of the future for dallas. So they putting him against the hapless Red Wings because they to put in good situation to succeed and build confidence. His debut so he will focused that is for sure, and the stars play a strong defensive system which makes saves easier on goalies. In other words, I think he will just fine.

@Moose6836

 Wild are 1-0 in revenge games they lost as favorites to ducks earlier in the season and came back and won the next by 1 goal. So based off of one game they should bounceback but their price is a little steep and kings are definitely playing better hockey than the ducks so far this season upsetting the Aves and Blues already and just last game versus the Wild so I am staying away

BOL tonight Powercore