"OT Yes" System

Was bored the other day, so started looking at data, and see if any patterns emerged.  Focused on the last month of the season, where teams enter into "playoff" mode, or into "Off-season Golf" mode.  Found a slight uptick in OT, so gathered the stats, and found this:  Last month of the season system proposal: going to play on "OT Yes" where both teams are playoff bound (top 3 in each Conf) or in Wild Card hunt. 

WC hunt is any team within 10 or less points of last WC spot, up until they are mathematically eliminated.  Right now, any game involving Buff, Phil, Nash, Chi, Ana, Sea, and SJ would not qualify.  The theory is these teams are starting to focus, as where they finish top 3 and Wild Card chasers are going to tighten things up (i.e. less aggressive Blue Line pinching, more Dump and Chase, High Forward exits Zone on lost possession in O Zone, etc.).

Since March 17, OT Yes on games that met this criteria is 11-31.  At +300 average, a 1 unit bettor would be up 2 units.  With OT Yes consistently being in the +290 to +350 range, this has been even more profitable.

Tonight, two games qualify - Oil/Stars +340  &  Isles/Nuks +300.  And if you use multiple books, you can usually find greater than +300 pretty consistently.

Going to play 1/4 unit each play starting today.  Might or might not remain profitable, but willing to wager 1/4 unit to see how this system performs to the end of the season.

Isles went to +320 at FD. 

Bet both for 1/4u  +340 & +320.

@dyamarik

 Ya I'm guessing the numbers could be slightly better for same conference games. The cross conference may not hit as much.. but I'm just guessing...you would have to check the numbers

Gl d

@dyamarik

 I see you do your homework = Good Job.

@dubz4dummyz good point, dubz.  Let's see if this continues to add a little edge, and I will dissect Conf play vs Inter-Conf play later, but that makes perfect sense.  1 point over a Division or Conf foe means more.  Good luck brother. 

@Redlad  took me a while, but finally figured out just tyring to guess the winner of each game will never lead to profits.  Got to find situations to bet and line value.  BOL to you Red - keep running hot. 

Quick look-a-head shows 5 games tomorrow.  Just blindly betting, but will keep track of any situational elements that I think add value like B2B's, long Road hauls, etc.  Anyone wanting to add your 2 cents, pls do.  That's the point of this Forum is to help beat the Books. 

DYK 

It’s a slippery rabbit hole the OT game my advice is they come in bunches so if OT is cold for 2 weeks it’s a good time to start to bet draws, I would saythat 2/4 day two days ago is a possible good sign for the next 3-4 days yesterday survived at 2/10 for minimal loss so today should be good with only 4 games it’s low risk and only need 2 to hit to break even. Good luck 

Love this info DY! I see this as valuable on my quest to pick the right O5.5 games as OT games can often lead to that 3-3 tie which guarantees our O5.5 plays! Great idea to watch for in this last month. 

@Fuse 

@ScroopyNoopers  yeah, I am seeing that data behavior pattern, as well.  Even in this small sample size, it is evident.  Gonna just map it out to see if it can be exploited in the future. 

@triplee2385  

I have been tracking but not posting these as plays.  Will keep updating every few days. 

3/26  0-2  -2 units

3/27  0-5  -5 units

3/28  3-2  +7.7 units

After 3 days, we show a slight profit.  Let's see where it goes from here... 

@dyamarik

 Every game today except vgk/nsh and nyr/sj qualifies?

@dubz4dummyz   and SEA DAL

Mar 29  1-7  -2.6 units

With STL win yesterday, Utah now below the 10 point Mendoza line, along with Nash, Chi, Ana, Sea, and SJ in the West, and only Buff in East.  4 games qualify: Habs/Cats, Nuks/Jets, Isles/Canes, and Sens/Pens.

Mar 30

1-3  +0.2 units

Since March 17th

16-50  +0.30 units

2 Games qualify: Devs/Mild & Avs/Flams

Mar 31

2-0  +6.6 units

Since March 17th

18-50  +6.90 units

All but 2 games qualify tonight (Nash/CLB & SJ/ANA) 

April 1

2-6  +0.7 units

Since March 17

20-56  +7.60 units

3 games tonight: Mild/Rags, Canes/Craps, Cats/Loafs

Very interesting. What’s today saying? 

Too much work going on... 

4/2  1-2  +2.30 units

4/3  1-4  -0.80 units 

Since March 17

22-62  +9.10 units 

We might be onto something here... 

Tonight: 

Teams/Games that don't qualify: CHI/WASH

2 Games qualify: Canes/Wings & Mild/Isles

Excellent work.  Goalie/ref overlays worth an additional look as are situational rest/travel spots.  Love it that you can make money going 2-6!

4/4  0-2  -2.0 units

4/5  2-9  +0.0 units 

5 games qualify today 

Does canucks game qualify?

@raceman06

 As a loser yes

4/6  1-4  -0.7 units

Since March 17

23-77  +6.40 units 

Only 2 games tonight - pool is getting smaller...  Rags/Bolts & Blues/Jets

4/7  0-2  -2.0 units

Since March 17

24-81  +4.40 units 

These teams are DQ'd for rest of season:  B's, Tittsburgh, Gritties, Preds, Hawks, Quacks, Kraks, and Sharks. 

Rest of the league qualifies for now - as teams run out of games to catch up (i.e. statistically eliminated), they will also be excluded.  Debating if there is a second qualifier needed for the last couple games, where one (or both) of the teams cannot alter their playoff standing, thus making that game DQ'd to system.

Interesting for sure 

I’m impressed and doing draws you have the ability to gamblers fallacy it by increasing wagers when you’re losing then starting back over when you have a good day. If you go cold it will burn but your system looks like it’s working consistently enough. Make sure you do this next season lol and I’ll join you.