YTD: 6-8 -3.93 UNITS
Rangers v Capitals over 5.5 +122 2 UNITS
Lundqvist is going for the Rangers tonight and Holtby goes for the Rangers. Big deal.
Before I get started, I'm well aware that Rick Nash has been placed on IR for concussion symptoms but as you will see, it's the defensive problems plaguing these teams that concern me at the moment which means when things are this dire on both sides, anyone has the potential to score.
First let’s talk about the Rangers. A team going in the wrong direction FAST. Lundqvist is off to the worst start of his career going 1-3-0 out of the gate with a fat 4.21 GAA and uninspiring .887 SV%. Sure, you can argue that the Rangers have a poor defense but that argument actually helps the over doesn't it. He can only do so much.
After the Rangers allowed 9 goals in San Jose we (at least me) thought that the team would write that off to a bad night and get things back on track. Not so fast. They followed up that performance by allowing 6 goals at Anaheim in the very next game and then 5 at St. Louis. Shouldn’t teams tighten up their defensive play on the road? Clearly the Rangers don’t have that ability. They currently stand at 1-4 SU on the season with the over going 3-1-1 and that lone under was a 3-1 win in game two against a struggling Kings goalie out of the gates. (Quick), The push came in a 4-1 loss to the Coyotes.
Tonight, they face a team that has the ability to score a lot of goals and the Capitals may be smelling blood considering the number of goals the Rangers have been allowing of late. The Caps, like the Rangers also need a win as they have started their season 2-4 with the over going 4-2 in their games thus far. (Combined, excluding the Rangers push, both teams are a combined 7-3 (70%) over)
Sure, we can all argue about “wait it’s Lundqvist!! Or it’s Holtby!!” but the fact of the matter is that until they turn things around, they are a liability. (do the smaller pads and equipment finally expose those goalies who carried a few extra inches around with them all these years?)
Back to the Capitals, a team that has allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of their 6 games including a 6 spot to Blackhawks and a 5 spot to the Aves, the latter a team known more for their defensive prowess than their offensive output.
The fact is that the Rangers are 2nd worst in the league in shots allowed per game (35.8) and the Caps are 10th worst at 31.3 shots per game allowed. The Rangers are dead last in goals against per game (5.00) and the Capitals are 4th worst at 3.67 goals allowed per game.
Lundquist’s career numbers aren’t the greatest against Washington to begin with, with a 2.67 goals against average in 24 games. He only has a worse career GAA against 2 other teams, Detroit and Colorado so he faces a team that has had his number over his career. His career GAA at Verizon Center is 2.94.
As for Holtby, he has a 3.55 GAA in 3 home starts this season vs. a 1.55 GAA in his lone road start. He’s had 5 career starts against the Rangers posting a decent 1.93 GAA but his form has been poor of late.
Despite Washington’s poor defensive numbers this season, they do rank 10th in shots on goal this season (31.7) and the Rangers aren’t far behind at just over 27 shots per game.
Given the statstical probabilities (shots for/against and save percentages, there is a high probability of both teams scoring 3 goals each) My spreadsheet handicap makes this game 7.1. The Rangers road games have averaged 6.80 goals while the Capitals home games have averaged 6.25 total goals.
The bottom line is that these are NOT the Rangers of old that allowed 1 or 2 goals per game and roade their goalie to victory. There is seriously something wrong WITH NY at the moment and with the Capitals as well, they’ve shown they can score when they work together and tonight may be the night that Adam Oates lets them loose a bit to try to catch a very poor defensive Rangers unit.
The Rangers are desperate for a win and need to start scoring goals. Their current output isn’t going to do it and against a vulnerable Holtby, they might stand that chance if they decide to throw a lot of rubber his way.
Going in to the trend database, I note that
- Washington is 20-6 “over” (77%) in their last 26 home games v teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. The average combined score in those games was 7 goals. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 in that scenario.
- The Rangers are 11-3 “over” (78.5%) their last 14 games when playing off 2 or more consecutive losses the last 3 seasons.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rangers last 6 Wednesday games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Rangers last 6 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game and the over is 5-2-1 in Capitals last 8 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous
Bottom line, we have two goalies with saver percentages of .887 and .886 facing each other. The Capitals have firepower and the Rangers can score if they get their act together and may pick tonight to go after a struggling goalie. No matter how you slice it, FOR THE RANGERS, 25 goals in 5 road games IS NOT GOOD and FOR THE CAPTIALS, of the 15 teams that have played at least 4 home games, Washington is DEAD LAST amongst them with 14 goals allowed.
No matter how I break this down, Rangers road form and Capitals home form are both brutal and conducive to a high probability of goals in this game.
Tail, fade or pass ... that's up to you. These reasons are why I am on the over. Good luck.
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