I am using data and history to find A (or multiple games) that is a dog or very low juice on favorites.
The teams I am looking for are middle to low teams the previous seasons. Playing an opponent that is not the top notch team last season. Now there are occasions that fading teams like the Av's happen but finding specific data that will find to play against a slow starting team like the Avs is very difficult.
As I said a middle to bad team as a road favorite that has some vulnerability.
Rest and last site are a factor but in this specific case not that much.
I am not trying to pick teams I am trying to find teams (any teams that qualify) that are in winning situation. It really difficult to assess which specific team to skip or omit but my hope is the data sorts out teams that are not good enough to qualify.
the query and data:
season>2015 and tA(goals) < 3.5 and t:losses>1 and game number < 7 and AF and o:losses<4 and PRSW<46 and line<=-110 and rest<3
The breakdown:
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I am using data and history to find A (or multiple games) that is a dog or very low juice on favorites.
The teams I am looking for are middle to low teams the previous seasons. Playing an opponent that is not the top notch team last season. Now there are occasions that fading teams like the Av's happen but finding specific data that will find to play against a slow starting team like the Avs is very difficult.
As I said a middle to bad team as a road favorite that has some vulnerability.
Rest and last site are a factor but in this specific case not that much.
I am not trying to pick teams I am trying to find teams (any teams that qualify) that are in winning situation. It really difficult to assess which specific team to skip or omit but my hope is the data sorts out teams that are not good enough to qualify.
the query and data:
season>2015 and tA(goals) < 3.5 and t:losses>1 and game number < 7 and AF and o:losses<4 and PRSW<46 and line<=-110 and rest<3
I checked and previous to 2016 this did not work, so the results are suited to benefit the record and performance from this season. As long as the season is far out I dont think its an issue as long as the data is still performing.
and tA(goals) < 3.5 t=team... A = average... goals= is obviously goals scored on the season.
I dont want to play against teams that my dog cant keep pace with. I want to face inconsistent teams in scoring and goals given up ( in this case the results were already strong before I got to average goals against)
and t:losses>1
In this case a team with more than one loss this early in the season is enough inconsistency to go against.
and game number < 7
this range establishes the fact that we really have not established a who is who this early in the season. What we do know is they have lost 2 games. What we dont know (according to the data) is who they played. This road favorite might be elite and not scored goals against other top teams with elite goalies.
and AF ... fading an away favorite
and o:losses<4
our isolated dog has lost 3 games or less
and streak>-2
the favorite is not in a big losing streak with big motivation to come out and destroy. These teams are good favorite play ons. But being favorites the ROI is far less than betting dogs.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
season:
I checked and previous to 2016 this did not work, so the results are suited to benefit the record and performance from this season. As long as the season is far out I dont think its an issue as long as the data is still performing.
and tA(goals) < 3.5 t=team... A = average... goals= is obviously goals scored on the season.
I dont want to play against teams that my dog cant keep pace with. I want to face inconsistent teams in scoring and goals given up ( in this case the results were already strong before I got to average goals against)
and t:losses>1
In this case a team with more than one loss this early in the season is enough inconsistency to go against.
and game number < 7
this range establishes the fact that we really have not established a who is who this early in the season. What we do know is they have lost 2 games. What we dont know (according to the data) is who they played. This road favorite might be elite and not scored goals against other top teams with elite goalies.
and AF ... fading an away favorite
and o:losses<4
our isolated dog has lost 3 games or less
and streak>-2
the favorite is not in a big losing streak with big motivation to come out and destroy. These teams are good favorite play ons. But being favorites the ROI is far less than betting dogs.
I am eliminating teams that excelled last season. Most of them have high salaries with a strong winning formula. I wan tto eliminate betting against the Lightning, Bruins, Panthers ect. I like fading teams that barely made or just missed the playoffs last season. As long as they are showing the same inconsistent behavior that they encountered last season. The data confirms this nicely.
and line<=-110
avoiding these tight lines is back and forth and doesn't create the ROI necessary to make an investment worth while. I n a perfect world I would love to increase the lines further but the results are +ev and strong ROI.
and rest<3
Rest in some cases makes a bigger factor,in this case it eliminated only 1 loss. I am showing a concise, and detailed system that has a strong ROI and details that are factors that eliminate weak spots in teams and games.
Explanation complete.
The play, Well I just wasted your time, or did I?
The Ducks qualify in this system that is 20-3 situation. Not only that, these teams win the game half the time in overtime.
9 times these contests hit the overtime prop and every time the dog hits overtime the DOG have been the winner. Doing the subtraction thats a record of 14-3 for the dog if the game doesn't hit overtime.
Head to head the Kings are 7-3 SU @ Ana (last 10) but even last season were 1-1 in Orange County.
The real question here is are the Sharks and Ducks going to continue to be so woeful or is there some sort of elevation?
I am resting this to find out.
Duck line at my 3 outs:
lowvig =+153
Bookmaker =+154
Heritage= +152
CAPS SO WE ARE CLEAR AND YOUR UNDERSTANDING IS ON POINT.
THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT. I STILL CAN TWEAK THIS TO ELIINATE SOME TEAM THAT EVEN IF QUALIFY MAKE ME SICK AND ILL TO THINK ABOUT. WE HAVE TO AND PREFER TO WATCH GAMES AND SOMETIMES IT A MADDENING MIND FREAK BLOWOUT.
IF THIS ISNT HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL I WILL WALKAWAY AND NO LONGER POST GAMES.
I think I covered most everything, we will see how it goes. +EV and ROI is the focus not more wins than losses and clearly we are going to have some games that stink!
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
and PRSW<46
Previous Regular Season Wins.
I am eliminating teams that excelled last season. Most of them have high salaries with a strong winning formula. I wan tto eliminate betting against the Lightning, Bruins, Panthers ect. I like fading teams that barely made or just missed the playoffs last season. As long as they are showing the same inconsistent behavior that they encountered last season. The data confirms this nicely.
and line<=-110
avoiding these tight lines is back and forth and doesn't create the ROI necessary to make an investment worth while. I n a perfect world I would love to increase the lines further but the results are +ev and strong ROI.
and rest<3
Rest in some cases makes a bigger factor,in this case it eliminated only 1 loss. I am showing a concise, and detailed system that has a strong ROI and details that are factors that eliminate weak spots in teams and games.
Explanation complete.
The play, Well I just wasted your time, or did I?
The Ducks qualify in this system that is 20-3 situation. Not only that, these teams win the game half the time in overtime.
9 times these contests hit the overtime prop and every time the dog hits overtime the DOG have been the winner. Doing the subtraction thats a record of 14-3 for the dog if the game doesn't hit overtime.
Head to head the Kings are 7-3 SU @ Ana (last 10) but even last season were 1-1 in Orange County.
The real question here is are the Sharks and Ducks going to continue to be so woeful or is there some sort of elevation?
I am resting this to find out.
Duck line at my 3 outs:
lowvig =+153
Bookmaker =+154
Heritage= +152
CAPS SO WE ARE CLEAR AND YOUR UNDERSTANDING IS ON POINT.
THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT. I STILL CAN TWEAK THIS TO ELIINATE SOME TEAM THAT EVEN IF QUALIFY MAKE ME SICK AND ILL TO THINK ABOUT. WE HAVE TO AND PREFER TO WATCH GAMES AND SOMETIMES IT A MADDENING MIND FREAK BLOWOUT.
IF THIS ISNT HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL I WILL WALKAWAY AND NO LONGER POST GAMES.
I think I covered most everything, we will see how it goes. +EV and ROI is the focus not more wins than losses and clearly we are going to have some games that stink!
These query finding I will seek out more of these as this is one isolated successful query I have found to be excellent. As the season progresses more situations will have to be searched and discovered.
My premise is finding weak or middle of the pack favorites that have elevated too high or dogs that have to potential to get hot. Maybe it regression off a dominate win or elevation from a dog after a bad loss.
The offensive scoring potential has to be average or below for the team we are facing and not bottom type scoring from the dog. WE need to score goals and be able to keep the light out of our net. Remember to all this we are betting dogs so it is not easy.
The biggest importat factor I am not addressing at this point is who is starting in goal. Well there is no way to tell what type of ROI if the 2nd goalie is in. Maybe the only factor on this is back to back and opponent rest or our team rest.
If you feel its important eliminate the games. I think backup goalies increase the lines and ROI and ALL of the data is ignoring the goalie factor and also does included all games and increased lines. Extra ROI. Goals against factor also includes puck possession and the defensive responsibly.
I really cant know everything by data alone and have no problem playing any team until they have shown they are sickening to keep trying. Even the other teams I can let take my money always. That sick feeling like if this team kills me again. I hate this.
Anyways well see how it goes. Money line betting is all about ROI so hopefully it works out.
Injuries also I really dont care about. It data and numbers many cases and situations are included here. No way to tell if this player would have played the result would have been different. Let the increased odds and ROI sort this out. If its a loss and blowout so be it. Long term results are the determining factor.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
These query finding I will seek out more of these as this is one isolated successful query I have found to be excellent. As the season progresses more situations will have to be searched and discovered.
My premise is finding weak or middle of the pack favorites that have elevated too high or dogs that have to potential to get hot. Maybe it regression off a dominate win or elevation from a dog after a bad loss.
The offensive scoring potential has to be average or below for the team we are facing and not bottom type scoring from the dog. WE need to score goals and be able to keep the light out of our net. Remember to all this we are betting dogs so it is not easy.
The biggest importat factor I am not addressing at this point is who is starting in goal. Well there is no way to tell what type of ROI if the 2nd goalie is in. Maybe the only factor on this is back to back and opponent rest or our team rest.
If you feel its important eliminate the games. I think backup goalies increase the lines and ROI and ALL of the data is ignoring the goalie factor and also does included all games and increased lines. Extra ROI. Goals against factor also includes puck possession and the defensive responsibly.
I really cant know everything by data alone and have no problem playing any team until they have shown they are sickening to keep trying. Even the other teams I can let take my money always. That sick feeling like if this team kills me again. I hate this.
Anyways well see how it goes. Money line betting is all about ROI so hopefully it works out.
Injuries also I really dont care about. It data and numbers many cases and situations are included here. No way to tell if this player would have played the result would have been different. Let the increased odds and ROI sort this out. If its a loss and blowout so be it. Long term results are the determining factor.
Thanks for this....backchecked the 2023 stats and yes, it seems like the favorites hit HUGE on Sundays for some reason. Mondays, it's like, 50 / 50. which is good because you would still make money betting on the dogs.
Let's keep an eye on this moving forward this season. I'm still in the middle of backchecking 2022.
0
@spottie2935
Thanks for this....backchecked the 2023 stats and yes, it seems like the favorites hit HUGE on Sundays for some reason. Mondays, it's like, 50 / 50. which is good because you would still make money betting on the dogs.
Let's keep an eye on this moving forward this season. I'm still in the middle of backchecking 2022.
2022 Sundays looked good except for 1 in January where all the huge favorites lost (3 games of -250 or more?). Other than that....looks promising. I'll go one more back to 2021.
0
@spottie2935
2022 Sundays looked good except for 1 in January where all the huge favorites lost (3 games of -250 or more?). Other than that....looks promising. I'll go one more back to 2021.
No...I just looked at every Sunday to see if the favorites won, and they mostly did over the last 3 seasons. Good point though, might need to look into that.
Yesterday the faves went 3 - 0.
0
@dyamarik
No...I just looked at every Sunday to see if the favorites won, and they mostly did over the last 3 seasons. Good point though, might need to look into that.
# of games played matters, months in which games played matter. Days of the week matter.
What I see is October days of the week are bad on Sunday and Monday. Well if that is the case like this weeks 4-0 well that opens up an opportunity for some dogs in the following days. Most of the time the chalks dont get on a long winning streak all week long.
Now I use data to search out what games are best.
I think at this point I also have to eliminate some teams, even if some bad teams qualify nobody want to wager on the Hawks Ducks Sharks on the road @+200 or more. Maybe these hit at 40% or more and are profitable people see scores of 4-1 or worse and they puke. Most nights they lose and waste time and money.
The Key is finding middle teams that are favorites and the middle teams are inconsistant aand not playing teams with poor GAA
The real key to all of this is scoring. Staying away from teams that cant score or betting against teams that lack scoring. Avaoiding teams that score 0 or 1 goal
OUR TEAM Favorite or dog needs to score 3+3 to have a strong ROI. If our team cant score 3 we have only a small chance.
Sounds obvious but I want to put the thoughts in our collective brains.
We need to be selective and conservative to make out ROI the best possible.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
October Sunday Favorites since 2017
Home: 27-13 ROI=6.9%
Away 16-10 ROI = -2.4%
Neutral 1-0
# of games played matters, months in which games played matter. Days of the week matter.
What I see is October days of the week are bad on Sunday and Monday. Well if that is the case like this weeks 4-0 well that opens up an opportunity for some dogs in the following days. Most of the time the chalks dont get on a long winning streak all week long.
Now I use data to search out what games are best.
I think at this point I also have to eliminate some teams, even if some bad teams qualify nobody want to wager on the Hawks Ducks Sharks on the road @+200 or more. Maybe these hit at 40% or more and are profitable people see scores of 4-1 or worse and they puke. Most nights they lose and waste time and money.
The Key is finding middle teams that are favorites and the middle teams are inconsistant aand not playing teams with poor GAA
The real key to all of this is scoring. Staying away from teams that cant score or betting against teams that lack scoring. Avaoiding teams that score 0 or 1 goal
OUR TEAM Favorite or dog needs to score 3+3 to have a strong ROI. If our team cant score 3 we have only a small chance.
Sounds obvious but I want to put the thoughts in our collective brains.
We need to be selective and conservative to make out ROI the best possible.
month = 10 and F and day = Tuesday and season > 2016 and -110>line > -140 and 3 > rest > 0 and site = home and (t:wins-o:wins)>-1 and streak>-4
game played in October as a Home favorite on Tuesdays since 2107 to present with a line higher than -110 (so this is tricky a little bit but lets try to get +100 or better here and if its close use your own discretion.) and lines where the favorite is > than -140 (> than means closer to 0 not closer to -200 so we are on the same page) favorite is not on 0 rest.
and (t:wins-o:wins)>-1
adding up the wins for the favorites and subtracting from the opponent wins we want the wins to be even or the favorite to have more wins.
Finally the favorite can not be on a long losing streak. They get fired up in these cases or coaches start falling.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Tuesday:
month = 10 and F and day = Tuesday and season > 2016 and -110>line > -140 and 3 > rest > 0 and site = home and (t:wins-o:wins)>-1 and streak>-4
game played in October as a Home favorite on Tuesdays since 2107 to present with a line higher than -110 (so this is tricky a little bit but lets try to get +100 or better here and if its close use your own discretion.) and lines where the favorite is > than -140 (> than means closer to 0 not closer to -200 so we are on the same page) favorite is not on 0 rest.
and (t:wins-o:wins)>-1
adding up the wins for the favorites and subtracting from the opponent wins we want the wins to be even or the favorite to have more wins.
Finally the favorite can not be on a long losing streak. They get fired up in these cases or coaches start falling.
Tuesday plays : The record for these Tuesdays favorites in this case are 4-19 SU Thats right ! ROI +73.6%
Now with 3 plays I expect 1-2 or better. Keep the thinking small because of variance. It shoudt sweep because 3 plays is a lot. and it shouldnt get swept either so the risk on 3 plays is minimal in my opinion. Lets see if my thinking is correct
Penguins
Senators
Canes
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Tuesday plays : The record for these Tuesdays favorites in this case are 4-19 SU Thats right ! ROI +73.6%
Now with 3 plays I expect 1-2 or better. Keep the thinking small because of variance. It shoudt sweep because 3 plays is a lot. and it shouldnt get swept either so the risk on 3 plays is minimal in my opinion. Lets see if my thinking is correct
also if this is valuable to you I am busy as well so someone keep tracking how big dogs do. We all know big dogs are difficult and also streaky so we can use our own data to catch a hot streak. Try to eliminate cold streaks if we do catch a run of good wins.
Big dogs are really about collecting 50/ or slightly worse and the smaller lines are about picking winners at a high level and not laying juice.
Thats the goal. Playing dogs after the favorites win a few days its regression in our favor.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
also if this is valuable to you I am busy as well so someone keep tracking how big dogs do. We all know big dogs are difficult and also streaky so we can use our own data to catch a hot streak. Try to eliminate cold streaks if we do catch a run of good wins.
Big dogs are really about collecting 50/ or slightly worse and the smaller lines are about picking winners at a high level and not laying juice.
Thats the goal. Playing dogs after the favorites win a few days its regression in our favor.
season > 2017 and 9 > game number > 4 and HF and PRSW > 31 and line < -145 and streak > -2 and o:rest < 3 and line > -186 and o:streak!= -1
I am tracking and I want as many dog games that qualify after the favorites have won the last 2 days. There should be some dogs and splits. This is a test and I want to see what playing good and all games in decent situations does for our ROI.
also playing ON:
Wild
Red Wings
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
season > 2017 and 9 > game number > 4 and HF and PRSW > 31 and line < -145 and streak > -2 and o:rest < 3 and line > -186 and o:streak!= -1
I am tracking and I want as many dog games that qualify after the favorites have won the last 2 days. There should be some dogs and splits. This is a test and I want to see what playing good and all games in decent situations does for our ROI.
As I go through this some lines are no longer relevant. When using the data sites lines sometimes the lines are old or stale so I have to double check.
If you see it just tell me to eliminate a team or game. Ideally we want winner at any price that’s reasonable but with so many plays we don’t need em all
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
As I go through this some lines are no longer relevant. When using the data sites lines sometimes the lines are old or stale so I have to double check.
If you see it just tell me to eliminate a team or game. Ideally we want winner at any price that’s reasonable but with so many plays we don’t need em all
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
