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THURSDAY - Suspect Lines IMO 9-2 YTD 81%

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Posted: #1
9-2 YTD 81% so far on picks in this experiment

7:08 - New York Rangers +120 vs Montreal Canadiens -132

7:38 - Dallas Stars +151 vs Boston Bruins -168

10:38 - New Jersey Devils +125 vs San Jose Sharks -138


Early First Take from an Average Joe aka Me:

IMO NYR should be favored here. And EVERYONE KNOWS IT!!! So why isn't the line moving?? This is a no play for me, but if I was forced to choose. My money would be with the side Vegas is on. Montreal! 

Dallas Stars are getting no respect here with this line, and they should! Dallas is a good bet tonight, but probably won't play this one either.

New Jersey is my cash cow tonight. They should be the ones that are slightly favored.   

Initial Take: NJ Devils are the play tonight. Dallas is my second option, and Montreal if forced to play. Nothing is confirmed yet, will be back to post the plays once goalies are confirmed. 
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Posted: #2

I'm not sure I follow .. wouldn't every average Joe say to themselves 'wow Dallas at +150? I have to bet that' ? Isn't that a "suspect" line?  

 
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Posted: #3

I think the devils might be a trap. Why are sharks favored by so much ? I agree it doesn’t look right . 

Funny like a clown? Funny, like I’m here to amuse you ?
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by ramboo:

I'm not sure I follow .. wouldn't every average Joe say to themselves 'wow Dallas at +150? I have to bet that' ? Isn't that a "suspect" line?  


You are absolutely right on this one. My mistake. Dallas is the suspect line. It should be much higher.

Wow I can get +150!!! They have a good chance. etc etc. 

Thanks for pointing this one out. 
I turn my W's to M's, yeah I flip those.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Goodfella333:

I think the devils might be a trap. Why are sharks favored by so much ? I agree it doesn’t look right . 


I think these are both two bad teams. The sharks aren't favored so much, but I think NJ should have the edge here. Will wait until starting goalies are confirmed. 
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Posted: #6

Lol as usual I am on all of those suspect lines an_roll_laugh

Dallaspeace_5 Jerseyan_cheers and Rangers an_timeout

 

 

 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:

9-2 YTD 81% so far on picks in this experiment7:08 - New York Rangers +120 vs Montreal Canadiens -1327:38 - Dallas Stars +151 vs Boston Bruins -16810:38 - New Jersey Devils +125 vs San Jose Sharks -138Early First Take from an Average Joe aka Me:IMO NYR should be favored here. And EVERYONE KNOWS IT!!! So why isn't the line moving?? This is a no play for me, but if I was forced to choose. My money would be with the side Vegas is on. Montreal! Dallas Stars are getting no respect here with this line, and they should! Dallas is a good bet tonight, but probably won't play this one either.New Jersey is my cash cow tonight. They should be the ones that are slightly favored.   Initial Take: NJ Devils are the play tonight. Dallas is my second option, and Montreal if forced to play. Nothing is confirmed yet, will be back to post the plays once goalies are confirmed.

 

Check Corsicahockey.  They run analytics based on lineups, and come up with pretty reasonable probabilities.  I dont' always go with their picks, but they're useful as a resource.

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:

Lol as usual I am on all of those suspect lines an_roll_laugh

Dallaspeace_5 Jerseyan_cheers and Rangers an_timeout

 

 


 Rangers aren't the suspect line. The suspect line is Mon. Why are they favored when EVERYONE and they motha is on Rangers tonight at +115. Is Vegas going to take such a big loss on an underdog tonight? I doubt it, but possible.

As always 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:

Quote Originally Posted by ramboo:

I'm not sure I follow .. wouldn't every average Joe say to themselves 'wow Dallas at +150? I have to bet that' ? Isn't that a "suspect" line?  
You are absolutely right on this one. My mistake. Dallas is the suspect line. It should be much higher.Wow I can get +150!!! They have a good chance. etc etc. Thanks for pointing this one out.

IMHO,

your 1st first

observation w/Dallas was your

  best point within your initial take, w/DAL +150

 

 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:

Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:

Lol as usual I am on all of those suspect lines  Dallas Jersey and Rangers     
 Rangers aren't the suspect line. The suspect line is Mon. Why are they favored when EVERYONE and they motha is on Rangers tonight at +115. Is Vegas going to take such a big loss on an underdog tonight? I doubt it, but possible.As always

Yeh I understand, however Rangers already in play for me lets hope they hold they been money so far 

 
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Posted: #11
I mean, I think they should be favored. Just confused as to why it's the other way around. And EVERYONE is on them lol 

It's most likely a no play for me tonight. So I'll be rooting for you for sure. 
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Posted: #12
Also, IMHO...not sure why you are mind-reversing two of your initial lean-go's.  I say the "Price" will be right in the NYR/MON game 2nite, especially vs. Georgiev camping out in the other set of pipes.  I see Rags laxing after rolling off a few W's + coming off an O/T "W" from cross-town + tonight with be 1st leg of a B2B, where 2morrow (starts an away/home) they will meet up w/the Phytens, whom throttled them in the last one.  I think the "value" hunters will bite hard on the Rags 2nite, appeasing the house.

For me, it's a few scoops of MON -131 in the cone w/PL+185 sprinkles on top.  After this one, I will def. jump on the Rag's train.     
 
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Posted: #13

Yeh I played them early because I expected line to go down .. it didn't new_crazy

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by DrLump:

Also, IMHO...not sure why you are mind-reversing two of your initial lean-go's.  I say the "Price" will be right in the NYR/MON game 2nite, especially vs. Georgiev camping out in the other set of pipes.  I see Rags laxing after rolling off a few W's + coming off an O/T "W" from cross-town + tonight with be 1st leg of a B2B, where 2morrow (starts an away/home) they will meet up w/the Phytens, whom throttled them in the last one.  I think the "value" hunters will bite hard on the Rags 2nite, appeasing the house.

For me, it's a few scoops of MON -131 in the cone w/PL+185 sprinkles on top.  After this one, I will def. jump on the Rag's train.     

You are spot on my friend. I'm so mind fcked right now that I'm probably going to pass on the whole night. 
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Posted: #15
Only one play for me tonight, and it's official.

2/27/2020 10:38 PM NHL Hockey 51 New Jersey Devils (1st 60 min)* -½ +193  vs San Jose Sharks (1st 60 min)

+193!! 
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Posted: #16

Hahaha... rangers forgot to show up for the game so they got some random bums from the street and put them into hockey uniforms... hey maybe the real team will be back for second period an_lightening

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:

Hahaha... rangers forgot to show up for the game so they got some random bums from the street and put them into hockey uniforms... hey maybe the real team will be back for second period an_lightening


It's not that bad. I just hope I was wrong about that one so you can win the MONEYS!
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Posted: #18
Dallas up 1-0 for you though. 
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Posted: #19

Good thing real players came back after 1st for the Rangers an_roll_laugh

And then Dallas choked quickly and precisely an_lightening will need a miracle for this one

 
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Posted: #20
Still rooting for ya 
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Posted: #21
Took Devils also..
What a save by Devils defender should be 2-1



 Good Luck man
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by miggitymiggs420:

Took Devils also..
What a save by Devils defender should be 2-1



 Good Luck man

Good luck my man, let's get this one 
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Posted: #23
Brutal short handed goal scored by SJ to tie it at 2-2. I hope I didn't get greedy by taking -.5 instead of +.5 
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Posted: #24
I hedged. i think they are going to lose. Last two periods not much for Devils
 
 
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Posted: #25

What a brutal ending for the night ... Had Leafs Stars Rangers Flames Devils ... straight bets and round robin parlay ... was looking good until both Flames and Devils choked at the very end new_heavy_cry

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