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#1
Playoffs: 1-1 +/- 0 units
Blue Jackets ML +130
This series caused me a lot of trouble when I was doing my deep dive into it earlier this week. The Caps underlying numbers just aren’t good. 24th in the NHL in possession, 26th in xG, and a ridiculously high PDO which means they’ve in theory been riding a lot of luck this season to get to this point. Throw the goalie situation into play and it’s just hard to get on board with this team. Their PP and incredible shooting percentage they’ve been riding this year will have to bail them out for them to continue success into the playoffs.
The Jackets on the other hand are putting up incredible possession numbers and generating top 3 scoring chances for over the last 25 games. Bobrovsky has had a ridiculous season this year. There’s this interesting advanced stat that a lot of teams are using called Goals saved above average or GSAA, which basically tells a team how many saves a goalie is making that more often times than not would be a goal. Bobrovsky leads the NHL with 34 GSAA. Interestingly enough second on that list is Grubauer. Except he has 16!! Bobrovsky has more than doubled the next guy on the list. He’s been hung out to dry a lot this season but still continues to fight through and get the job done.
Sharks ML +125
Going to keep this ones short and simple. Sharks dominate every analytical category over the Ducks. Problem is the Ducks have a massive goaltending advantage over the Sharks. Personally, I picked the Ducks for the series over the Sharks, just hoping tonight is one of the nights Jones can match Gibsonand the Sharks speed and heavy possession style can take over .
Also forgot to post my series picks and futures bets in my post yesterday:
Kings series +120
Ducks series -130
Jackets series +120
Bruins to win the cup 6/1 (my biggest future in years, overly confident in this one which worries me 
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