ML: 4-0 +4.45u
PL: 3-0 +3.72u
Totals: 8-3 +3.49u
TT: 9-3 +6.06u
Parlays: 1-0 +1.81u
2u Plays: 1-1 -0.40u
Yest: 1-0 +1.0u
Washington (-135) 1u
Had another good day yesterday going 1-0 adding another unit. A key has been avoiding a losing streak and being fortunate enough to not have back to back losing days. Here's yesterday's thread. https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=23&sub=101236976
Carolina/Tampa Bay o5.5 (-120)
Here we go again. I just couldn't resist biting on this over. Although over's haven't exactly been my forte, I did hit my last one and am looking to put together another solid analysis. Let's really hope that I can get this one right.
Carolina comes into this game having been one of the worst defensive teams thus far this season. Their offense has hovered around league average's, and that is good enough for this play. Carolina ranks #20 overall averaging 2.57 goals per game. They stay consistent with this number on the road where they find themselves ranked #15 averaging slightly less at 2.55 goals per game. The Power Play stays fairly average as well where they find themselves #21 in PP% at 15.2% and # 10 in PP goals with 27. There is no doubt their PP on the road is far more dominant where they rank #14 in PP% at 17.9% and #9 in PP goals having netted 13 thus far. The key to this is that they are a much better offensive team on the road then at home. All around, the defense is just abysmal. They rank #2 overall allowing an average of 3.30 goals per game. If you thought that was horrible, on the road they find themselves #2 again allowing an average of 3.80 goals per game. The Penalty Kill doesn't fair much better at all. Overall, they rank #27 in PK% at 77.1% and #3 having allowed 33 PP goals against. And when it seems as if things couldn't get worse, they do. On the road, Carolina is even worse where they find themselves ranked #28 in PK% at 74.0% and #2 in PP goals against with 20.
Tampa Bay comes into this game with an above average offense, and a pretty horrible defense as well. Tampa is #13 in the league having averaged 2.71 goals per game up to this point. At home, we see a huge improvement where they jump to #4 averaging 3.53 goals per game. Their overall Power Play is pretty horrible where they rank #27 overall in PP% at 13.5% and #28 in PP goals with 19. At home we see quite an improvement where they find themselves #10 in PK% at 20.7% and #20 in PP goals with 12. Tampa's defense on the other hand is is absolutely abysmal. They rank #1 in the league having allowed the most goals per game on average at 3.37. At home we see an improvement where they rank #6 allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game. Their Penalty Kill is as equally horrible as their overall defense. They find themselves ranked #24 overall in PK% at 80.1% and #3 having allowed 33 PP goals so far. At home, they are even worse where they are ranked #26 in PK% at 77.5% and #4 allowing 16 PP goals against.
There is obviously a big time discrepancy in the stats here. We have 2 brutal defenses facing each other. One offense is extremely potent, and one is average, but I think the key here is not the offense, but instead how terrible both defenses are. We also have 2 offenses that are average to above average against 2 of the bottom 4 PK's in the entire league. These stats are key as we should be able to help the over with a couple PP goals. Carolina has typically played high scoring road games this year. Of the 20 road games they have played, 14 of them have gone over the total., and of the 6 games that didn't go over 4 of them had 5 total goals scored. That leaves us with 18 of 20 Carolina road games had at least 5 goals scored. Tampa Bay on the other hand loves playing high scoring games at home. The over has hit in the last 10 Tampa road games in a row. To add to that, Tampa has scored 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 10 home games as well. Ward also has had a rough time on the road this season: 4-7-3 record, 3.53 GAA, .897 SV%.
Will most likely have another play tonight. As always, Good luck everyone.
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