Wednesday plays and thoughts.

I posted this on my Tuesday thread, but I didnt know if people would read. 

I really love when people take the time to share their thoughts, ideas, focus and missions.  I am that type of guy also.  It creates clarity and makes following each other more clear.  A Part of posting pick is the sharing and clarity so it easily understandable.  I am not that great with words and find writing difficult.  My thoughts are not concise at times.  Maybe too many pucks to my noggin.  I was A goalie from ages 5 thru 19.  2 huge concussions and I quit after the last.  

I am not into reading so I choose to focus on what most men do best, numbers.  Analyzing data is a part of it.   

Yesterday I felt the Sharks might be worth A shot again, but here is the thing about betting dogs.  When I post I have to look reasonable.  I can not give the impression that I am crazy.  Betting these big dogs and bad teams gives out a bad impression that not many can understand because the long time bad teams have tattooed bettors minds.

Going forward here is my mindset.  Can bet +180 or bettor lines but not everyone.  

Forget teams like Utah and Kraken.  The NHL can only do much with talent and competitive players and just like the NBA the big time players and big time talent wins.  Vegas has been different because the NHL fed them what they needed right away and these other newbie franchises didnt get those opportunities.  These new franchises need to excel before they are normalized and completely integrated into the league.

Why ?  There needs to be ups and downs and progression and then regression and these new teams have not gone though these processes to date.  Data I am search ing for is the back and forth and ups and downs so eliminating these teams for now is beneficial to what I do,.  Right now as favorites they are play against but going forward there could be progression with these teams and progression means winning when lined as favorites and winning those games.

Sharks, Ducks, Hawks and big lined teams. Once these teams elevate thats when to fade. They dont have a deep roster and these teams only have one line to posses the puck.  Puck possession is a great defense.  No puck possesion more opportunities for the opponent to score.  None of these teams have elite goalies so its really best to avoid these teams.  I will have to go look at the data but maybe the best way to fade these teams is play the over goals team totals.  

There is a lot of sensible data available but only so much time.  It also takes a hockey minded person to find the best data that consistently succeeds.  We are going to see if that is the case for me. 

Anyways just some thoughts and thank you spell check I need your assistance lol. 

Season thoughts.  Some of the rosters are complete.  Some of these rosters are depleted.  What I think transpires is A clear focus to stay away from teams on winning streaks and the same for losing streaks.  Focus on the middle inconsistent teams. 

Vegas is 7-0 at home because they score, LOTS.  The only way to bet against is if they get the injury bug.  They also do not have elite defense and their once outstanding goaltending is gone. 

Jets just the opposite. They keep the puck out of the Net.  Jets are 4-1 as a home favorite. 

I am going through a list of teams that excel so I know what I am betting against.  I am not new to the NHL but with expansion  these teams are always changing. 

I am going to keep doing my homework now so I can get a clear mindset of what these teams are capable of.  

There is a reason St. Louis lost 8-1 last night I just have to get clear thoughts about why.  

Thanks for reading 

Red Wings have been a dog in 8 straight games.  Until they can excel into a regression situation they should be avoided. 

Blue Jacket a dog in all games and lined over +200 3 times.  Avoid in most cases. 

Colorado is a fade.  They have given up a lot of goals this season. 

If I eliminate the Colorado games that they were -200 or more they are 3-3 SU and further elimination when they don’t play Utah and Kraken they are 1-3 straight up. Play against them in games where the lines are -125 or more and avoid them when the lines are -200 or more.  

Just realized that the NHL schedule now includes foreign country locations.  Must be careful of neutral site games.  

LA is not a good team!!  
their last 4 games are divisional games against San Jose and 2 games vs. Utah.  Regression can be exploited when teams have wins over bad teams or expansion teams. 

I like teams such as the Canucks. They have been at -200 or close four times on the season.  That gives them credibility as a dog.  The lines maker  respects them.  

Play tonight is Flames +105 

AD and 12>game number>7 and line<=130 and streak<-2 and op:goals>1 and D and season>2009

Flames are in a good situation to get a win tonight against another weak team. 

@sherriffics

good luck tonight 

I will continue to do my research today and there will be no more plays other than the flames +105

Good luck. Appreciate the time you took to explain some of your theory/thoughts. Have a great day!

@triplee2385

I saw you took kings?  when a team is riding high dont fade until they are dead again.  Took the Sharks some time to gel they will improve a little. 

Interesting read, lots of insights to various teams. By the way writing was spot on and no need for spellcheck…. Haven’t started looking at NHL or Ahl yet..

bol Flames

Ty Lugosi I don’t do AHL but it’s something to consider? It’s mostly favorites? 

@spottie2935

 No wldnt say that, just have to pick your spots..

@spottie2935

I’m New to betting hockey and just want to say GL and thanks for the write up.

@ApolloXavier

 You’re welcome 

let’s see if I can keep finding good situations. 

Isles reg +117

Flames +105 

Good luck on 'em both Spottie 

@spottie2935

 Awesome post!