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I'll give you the holy grail of gambling 1.1 (But......)

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garmongi

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 752

Posted: Oct. 2, 2007 - 2:30 AM ET #26

I read this last year and benifited. The only thing I do differently is use levels of 20%. You need 7.3 net wins @ -110 lay to collect 20% gain on your previous BR amount. You have a flat bet amount predetemined for whatever your bankroll level is at, that takes care of the "bet more when winning and less when loosing" as Lippsman states. 2.5% bet of BR per bracket is a good number. Limit plays per day, don't chase, and follow the system. Your gain will solely depend on your long term winning %. Straight plays are needed for these types of systems in my opinion.

c.r.e.a.m.

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Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 1296

Posted: Oct. 2, 2007 - 2:32 AM ET #27

Great write-up Lippsman. Money management is indeed the key to a successful and profitable season.

Looking forward to your picks and insights this NHL season.

Cheers!!!

GmoNavarro

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 849

Posted: Oct. 3, 2007 - 4:26 AM ET #28

GL in this season Man !!!

I dont agree with your money management strategy but if that has worked for you, good for you, for me I have been using another, depending on the sport I am wagering, in some I wager 2.22 % of my initial bankroll and in other I wager 2%, now when my bankroll increase by 20% or 25%(again depending on the sport that I am wagering) I adjust my bet size to the actual bankroll that would be 120% or 125% of my initial bankroll, other wise I dont increase or decrease my size bet...That money management has been the best for me, anyway good luck man !!!

georugby

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Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 2210

Posted: Oct. 3, 2007 - 10:26 AM ET #29

Great read Lipps.

Should be the way for everybody to wager!!

If I get back to it, I'll stick to this plan.

Have a great hockey season Lipps and All!!!

buck-O-meter

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 717

Posted: Oct. 3, 2007 - 10:35 AM ET #30

Very nice Lipps...but only one inconsistency:

"I wager 2% of my bankroll on each game. I've actually lowered this again this year. It was 4%, before the lockout. Then, last year it was 3% and now this year it's 2.5%.

Class...........pay attention........."

But I know what ya mean. GL to ya this year.

Lippsman

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 87445

Posted: Oct. 3, 2007 - 10:41 AM ET #31

Yeah, I combined this with last years. I will make the updates.

Thanks

Lippsman

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Posted: Oct. 3, 2007 - 10:45 AM ET #32

Ok, fixed.

bern260

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 19

Posted: Oct. 3, 2007 - 7:42 PM ET #33

great info ... appreciate the advice....

STEELERS in 07

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Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 3425

Posted: Oct. 4, 2007 - 8:08 AM ET #34

I read this every year! I love reading it actually, cause I hope oneday i can stick to it!

xmas

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 608

Posted: Oct. 4, 2007 - 10:48 AM ET #35

LMan nice write up and nice to see you back.....BOL on the season.

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 9:51 PM ET #36

Lipps...I agree wholeheartedly with most of what you've expressed. However, I'm convinced, with the power of mathematics and research, that you're statement:

You will notice I will play -1 lines quite a bit. This gets the big juice plays down to low or no juice. Also it turns big favs to nice dogs. You can turn that -150 into a +137. That's a huge difference. Yes, you will get some ties. But that's part of the game.

is misleading (unintentionally, of course). Buying these lines only changes the look of the play, not the resulting net. Over the long run, you will net about the same. It's only window dressing. Vegas is not offering you a better deal so that you can have a higher yield. Actually, it is misleading, by the bookies.

Lippsman

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Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 87445

Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 9:58 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

Lipps...I agree wholeheartedly with most of what you've expressed. However, I'm convinced, with the power of mathematics and research, that you're statement:

Vegas doesn't offer these, 5Dimes does so they can get more puck action. I stand by it saving money. Also with the plus money it makes even more of a difference.

I would like to see your mathematics. Because laying that kind of juice will kill you. No way will it even out.

Bigten51

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Posts: 2929

Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 10:27 PM ET #38

Thesicilian0ne

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Posts: 4207

Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 10:41 PM ET #39

NHLfan98

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 39

Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 10:51 PM ET #40

As a brand new complete square, I really appreciate your information. I printed it and put it in my research folder. The parlays are killing me, but they are so damn tempting. I don't have a ton of extra cash, so the offer of putting a little down to win a lot draws me in...every day it seems...but I'm working on it. Thanks again.

andarmac99

MVP

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 16954

Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 10:53 PM ET #41

Lipps I still don't understand the -1 lines. How are they any different from the ML? Do they include overtime/Shootouts?

Lippsman

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Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 10:55 PM ET #42

Your welcome guys. Welcome to the board NHL fan.

gutcheck

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Posts: 4195

Posted: Oct. 17, 2007 - 11:04 PM ET #43

Dude, -1 mean your team has to win by more than one goal. He does this so he is not paying as much juice playing just the money line.

For example: A team that is favored, the ML is set at -180

but at -1 it is set at -125.

Lippsman

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Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 2:09 PM ET #44

Bump

TailingYou

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Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 1657

Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 2:12 PM ET #45

I wish I as disciplined as you lipps...maybe when i get older but I just cant get myself to follow this as of yet

great advice tho thanks !

now back to makin my detroit ML bet

LEAFSRGR8

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 2474

Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 2:26 PM ET #46

Lippsman great writeup.just to let you know only 3% of gamblers make money.i have been doing this for over 20 years and have NEVER dipped into my banking accounts for more money needed.I WILL SAY THIS THOUGH if i had your discipline i would be even further ahead.as soon as i build a bit of a bankroll in my overseas account i try for the big payoffs by doing parlays and thats when i get into trouble.also for ppl betting thru bookies try taking a look at an overseas account.i go thru the greek.com and they give you sooo many more options.good luck to everyone and LIPPSMAN AND THREEGIRLS THANKS FOR EVERYTHING YOU DO

MikeyGB

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Posts: 1096

Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 2:27 PM ET #47

Good Skill to you too!

Lippsman

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Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 2:33 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Lipps I still don't understand the -1 lines. How are they any different from the ML? Do they include overtime/Shootouts?

Hey andarmac99,

I just saw your question. The -1 lines do include the OT and Shootouts. The difference from the ML is that the -1 will get the juice lower. So you are giving up a goal to get about .71 cents of juice off the wager. What is actually happening is that you are taking a chance of making a win into a tie, playing this way.

To me it pays off very well doing it this way. Yes, you will get your share of ties, but when the favorite is -170 or lower you can actually make that big fave into a slight dog, which is really good.

Also in the case of the big fave losing outright you save a ton of money because you have made that huge loss to a dog loss.