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Adelaide vs Cairns

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Legend
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Posted: #76
Sixers you are up by 120 points,just bludge around and waste some clock you box
 
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Posted: #77

Yeah its more leveraged.....

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #78
No defense at all in this game
 
Legend
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Posted: #79
Sixers draining another 3,LOL
 
Legend
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Posted: #80
Sixers just scored 5 points in like 7 seconds,how is that even impossible,LOL
 
Legend
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Posted: #81
Carins coming to the 3 pointer party,LOL
 
Captain
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Yep - good point Jive. Very good point.

look it, end of the 3rd quarter 70-57, they need 31 points to kill off the under (3.1 pts / min) , but 70-57 at the 30 min mark of a 48 min game and they still need another 62 in 18 mins (3.44 pts / min) , which is far from over the line in this league.

With 40 games, you can blink and it's fucked either way

 
Captain
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Posted: #83
Glad I took the 167.
 
Legend
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Posted: #84
Pretty much impossible to cap any Australian league/comp in sport,we are absolutely terrible at everything
 
Captain
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Posted: #85

FUCK, the cricket is screwed too.

This is a shit night.

Very shit night.

Had to happen eventually though.

FUCK THE NBL. FUCK NSW

 
Captain
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Posted: #86
scoring on every possession now
 
Captain
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Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:

Pretty much impossible to cap any Australian league/comp in sport,we are absolutely terrible at everything

Fade our tennis players next week. They all should be shot.

 
Captain
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Posted: #88

Depressing.

 
Legend
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Posted: #89
And its officialy over,digraceful game,not at any stage did these teams have a bad scoring drought tonight,one of the great fluke displays of our time
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

you guys see what I mean with these 40 min games ? I mean if this were 48 min the under 189 (what a 157.5 equates to over 48 mins) is still well and truly alive, but with these shorter games there is a much smaller margin for error either way.

Even a short scoring spurt or drought can completely fuck you either way  



yep, im offically banning myself from nbl totals...its fukn impossible


 
Legend
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Fade our tennis players next week. They all should be shot.



Haha yeah
 
Legend
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by SirGargamel:



yep, im offically banning myself from nbl totals...its fukn impossible




I don't bet big on the NBL but ill probably ban myself too,its just all luck this league
 
Legend
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Posted: #93
both teams shoot at over 50% for the whole match,ummm okk
 
Captain
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Posted: #94

Wouldn't mind finding out how many games this season with totals set in the 170+ range have gone "under".

Seems like the vast majority of matches where the number was set that high have gone under, some by a long way.

Unlike the NBA where you can guage a lot about how a game is likely to pan out purely by the line / total set, books pretty much take an educated guess imo setting totals in the NBL.  

 
Captain
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Fade our tennis players next week. They all should be shot.

already did that with Molik today, even the 1.68 was value imo for Suarez Navarro

although it turned out to be a very close match in the end.

 
Legend
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

Unlike the NBA where you can guage a lot about how a game is likely to pan out purely by the line / total set, books pretty much take an educated guess imo setting totals in the NBL.  





 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by SirGargamel:

some key injuries for this evening

Adelaide
Jacob Holmes - Strained medial longitudinal arch (foot) – Test

Cairns
Ian Crosswhite – Wrist - Test

after their inept performance @ home to Gold Coast on Saturday i'm feeling this Taipan squad will put up a reasonable performance for 3 quarters before evetually rolling over & taking their punishment like the little bitches they are.

Shut down Mills offensively, keep Rychart/Meltzer off the boards & it's lights out for the Taipans.

Adelaide ML (in-game) to the bank





might do me some good to recall my original thoughts pre-game when betting in-game..missed the sixer money-boat
 
Captain
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Posted: #98

Quote Originally Posted by SirGargamel:



yep, im offically banning myself from nbl totals...its fukn impossible


gotta bet numbers that give you a little wiggle room imo, we all jumped on a number with absolutely ZERO value tonight. Had the books set it at 164.5 and we'd lost, no problem, they just shot a little too well, but when the number is where you think it should be and you make a coin-flip play then you only have yourself to blame.

As I look at my spreadsheet record for NBL this season I see that I'm 5-6 on totals and 9-1 on sides in games where a strong situational angle cried out for a play on a particular team (strong revenge spot / desperate need for a win ect) In between there are other wins and losses here and there for only +2.34 units overall.

Moral of the story is we all need to be more patient and selective in this league. Motivation is the key.  

 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

gotta bet numbers that give you a little wiggle room imo, we all jumped on a number with absolutely ZERO value tonight. Had the books set it at 164.5 and we'd lost, no problem, they just shot a little too well, but when the number is where you think it should be and you make a coin-flip play then you only have yourself to blame.

As I look at my spreadsheet record for NBL this season I see that I'm 5-6 on totals and 9-1 on sides in games where a strong situational angle cried out for a play on a particular team (strong revenge spot / desperate need for a win ect) In between there are other wins and losses here and there for only +2.34 units overall.

Moral of the story is we all need to be more patient and selective in this league. Motivation is the key.  




very well said


 
 
Captain
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Posted: #100

FWIW, these are the lines I have marked for this week / weekend's round of matches.

Adelaide v Cairns = Adelaide -5.5

NZ vs Melbourne = NZ -5.5

GC vs Adelaide = GC -8

Perth vs Cairns = Perth -13

Melbourne vs Adelaide = Melbourne -6

Wollongong vs Gold Coast = GC -1

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