Posted:
#1
Thrilled that things are getting under way. Never watched preseason AFL, but will this year (if only a little).
My general thoughts on Preseason for betting is that dogs are more likely to cover (anyone have historical stats?). Reasoning:
- Better clubs are less concerned with winning than working in new players, schemes, etc., to see how they work to identify improvements. Generally more experienced players, who will be less motivated to rack up a ton of points.
- Underdog teams will have younger, more inexperienced admittedly, but much hungrier players. They will be more motivated and want it more.
- Betting public and bookies will shade lines even higher for faves than usual because the range of outcomes is much greater than in reg season.
Now, for tonight's game of Freo v Richmond
Line is down slightly from open at 40.5. That's a huge line, no matter what the circumstances imo (see Peekay notes). Looking back last year, only one Rd 1 game decided by >40, and that was the underdog Pies by 42 over Hawks in opener.
I like my odds here...
Tigers +40.5.
With that, the betting season is on! BOL
My general thoughts on Preseason for betting is that dogs are more likely to cover (anyone have historical stats?). Reasoning:
- Better clubs are less concerned with winning than working in new players, schemes, etc., to see how they work to identify improvements. Generally more experienced players, who will be less motivated to rack up a ton of points.
- Underdog teams will have younger, more inexperienced admittedly, but much hungrier players. They will be more motivated and want it more.
- Betting public and bookies will shade lines even higher for faves than usual because the range of outcomes is much greater than in reg season.
Now, for tonight's game of Freo v Richmond
Line is down slightly from open at 40.5. That's a huge line, no matter what the circumstances imo (see Peekay notes). Looking back last year, only one Rd 1 game decided by >40, and that was the underdog Pies by 42 over Hawks in opener.
I like my odds here...
Tigers +40.5.
With that, the betting season is on! BOL
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