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AFL R17

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Posted: #1
Geelong -18.5
You saw what happened to the bulldogs last week against Geelong, it could well be a similar event this time for Hawthorn.  No Ablett, no Ling does not matter as we saw last week.  I don't have much time at the moment but wanted to get this pick out, Geelong will win and will cover the line.  Hawthorn have not been in great form recently and I think they will be outmatched here.  Geelong are in hot form, winning their past 6 games by an average of 70 points (or something to that effect) and have won 38 of their last 40 matches.  If you asked me early in the year I would have told you the Hawks are a chance of the upset, but not now.

More to come... good luck.
 
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Posted: #2
Was on the fence with this match, even with Hodge and Mitchell a concern..........but after seeing this and a few other blokes on the Cats -18.5, I will have to join in.

Damn, I hope this is the right play! 
 
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Posted: #3
Line now out to 20.5 at Sportingbet...my guess is that either good money coming in for the Cats, or that Mitchell is out.
 
GL g-man, going to def tail you on this one
 
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Posted: #4
And do we have a weather check for tonight?
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Line now out to 20.5 at Sportingbet...my guess is that either good money coming in for the Cats, or that Mitchell is out.
 
GL g-man, going to def tail you on this one


Interesting.....IAS at -19.5.

I skipped out on -17.5 and locked in at 18.5.

Books feel very eager to back the Hawks here and either that is a great bluff or a very confident stance.
 
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Posted: #6
Geelong/Hawthorn is OFF THE BOARD AT TAB!!!

Get on Geelong!!!
 
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Posted: #7
And just like that they are back on...........

ML to 1.30 from 1.40

But line is still at -17.5


 
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Posted: #8
Melbourne Weather:
Friday
Scattered Clouds. High: 62° F. / 17° C. Wind light.

Friday Night
Clear. Low: 39° F. / 4° C. Wind light.

 
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Posted: #9
OVER 198.5 at Sportsacumen
 
I see a very physical game but also a high scoring one. Doesn't matter whether it is played at the G or under the pacific ocean.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

ML to 1.30 from 1.40

But line is still at -17.5


That doesn't make sense 

 
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Posted: #11
Just checked the number for the line at Sportstab. The -17.5 just went back up to $1.70.
 
Maybe a little money flowing back onto the Hawks ?
 
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Posted: #12
The -17.5 is now at $1.75 from $1.65 a few hours ago
 
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Posted: #13
Less than 30 minutes later -17.5 is now at $1.80 from $1.65
 
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Posted: #14
wow a lot of action here.

Miracle, A1 perfect weather conditions tonight.
By the looks of it, no chance of rain.

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

OVER 198.5 at Sportsacumen
 
I see a very physical game but also a high scoring one. Doesn't matter whether it is played at the G or under the pacific ocean.



Also realise this, Geelong's defense is on song.
L5 matches just an average of 53.2 points per game scored against them, the lowest by a long way out of any side in the comp.  Even the bulldogs who have been the highest scoring side this year only managed 70 points.

L5 weeks:

Geelong 131
Western Bulldogs 70

Geelong 118
Fremantle 44

Adelaide 56
Geelong 124

West Coast 47
Geelong 182

Geelong 108
Port Adelaide 49


Yes, Hawthorn can score but they have also struggled in recent weeks when their delivery into the forward line has not been good.  All I'm saying, this over isn't as easy as it looks.
 
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Posted: #16
Thats fine Gman we all bring good info from different angels.
 
 
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Posted: #17
Good luck mate, I'm on the cats too 
 
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Posted: #18
btw The over is 196.5 at Sportstab. Better options there.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

Thats fine Gman we all bring good info from different angels.
 


different angels?

lol.

what angel do you have ?  Guardian?
 
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Posted: #20
Typo mate. I'm sure you have made those.

Looks like we both have loses tonight Gman.
 
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Posted: #21
I know :)

It was a great game, I think the difference in the end might have been Chapman's injury and Milburn's late withdrawal, but they did get the win at least... Hawks played well but I think if they couldn't win tonight they wont later on when Geelong are back at full strength.
 
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Posted: #22
Going to go with 2 more favourites this round.

Collingwood to bounce back and taking the Saints who looked pretty good last week up against dreadful Eagles.

Collingwood -24.5
St.Kilda -31.5


Good luck.

 
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Posted: #23
With you on Collingwood.
 
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Posted: #25
Nice weather over in Perth. Should help the Saints.

The Bombers should lift for the Pies game as it's probably one of their finals... but the Pies need to regain some form. Tricky one.
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