AFL Rd 19

NM vs. Melb.  Dees had a great game last week, but won't be able to do it again, and should fall back a bit.  Young midfield that did well coming up against a more experienced group, and much better team.  The line is the same that Pies had vs. Dees last week.  It should be closer to the 30.  Goal Accuracy since round 12 58% to 45%.  Roos come out of HT well, having cleared last four games by an average 16 pts.  Dees have lost by the same average over that time (last week was +3, though).  Finally, taking the Over.  Purely on a hunch.  Don't usually play totals, and don't like too as it's even more random than the team bets, but this just feels like a 100+ to mid 70s game to me.  Only putting 50 on that, though, because the #s are what they are at the MCG recently, and Ian's source isn't whispering on this game.  :)

Plays: Roos -21.5, 3Q line -5.5, Over 164.5

GWS vs. Ess.  Bombers coming off an embarrassing match, but against one of the league's top sides (Doggies).  So line is higher than it otherwise would be.  Giants coming off a respectable loss, and are in good form, at home.  Just 3 weeks ago, Bombers were +31.5 vs. Roos and covered at +25.  Also covered against Port two weeks ago.  The Giants two home wins since Rd 9 were by 30 and 35, against Lions and Saints, respectively.  I watched the Saints game (Rd 15), though, and they were just fatigued.   With an average goal accuracy since Rd 12 of 46% (Bombers) and 43% (Giants), too many points to be laying against a team that will at least be fighting hard throughout.  Bombers do better than early in matches, having covered every QT line since Rd 11 except the thrashing by Saints.  Giants get off to a slow start more often than not.  I'm taking the Under as well, but only 50 for above reasons, and the weather is perfect here today.

Plays: Bombers +26.5, QT Line +6.5, Under 170.5.

GLTA - Erich