Using this little thread to post my thoughts for round 1. Looking forward to what should be a cracking season. The top 4 spots should be really open this year, the first kind of a somewhat unpredictable outcome thats hard to determine in some years.
Fremantle v Collingwood(AH)
On paper and at home, you would think that we might be looking at a PK with Fremantle's form from last season being stellar and the pies looking clueless in their finals performance last year, but still strong generally in front of a home crowd.
Still, Fremantle has been edged as a favourite with bookmakers giving anywhere between 7-9 points to Collingwood.
At first, I really liked the juice on Collingwood at Etihad. They have beaten Fremantle 4 of the last 5 times, however the surge of Ross Lyon's influence over Fremantle is but a fraction of those performances.
In the media, Lyon has stated how he wished his team had 3 more weeks to prepare for the season, as he felt that they were somewhat behind other teams. I don't buy it, I agree with Shane Crawford's statement on The Footy Show last night, that Lyon is a sly old fox and that his team will be more then ready and it's but a small way of trying to catch his opponent off guard.
What further solidifies this point, to me, is that Fremantle spent a fair bit of dosh in the off-season and hired somewhat "spies", so to speak, to:
1. Find out what his first four opponents have been up to, both preparation wise and possible tactics 2. Ascertain training state 3. Research Hawthorns successful training and fitness regime
The Grand Final loss, Lyon's 3rd, visually still peeves him off, and I think he has had a burning desire, ever since that last day in September, to correct the small problems in Fremantle's offensive structure.
Collingwood, in 2010, looked like we were going to see them peak and reach another dynasty level. The trading of both Shaw in defence, and all-round utility Daisy, will be interesting to see how well the mid-field and defence communicate. I know Bucks will want to start the year strongly, but I think he will have his hands full.
Fremantle appear to be at full strength and this match will have been circled by Lyon as a must win. I'll go with a team that should be looking to continue their strong form from last season against a Pies side that will probably continue an inconsistent year.
I'll be playing Fremantle for 2 units on the line at (-7.5)
Goodluck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hi guys,
Using this little thread to post my thoughts for round 1. Looking forward to what should be a cracking season. The top 4 spots should be really open this year, the first kind of a somewhat unpredictable outcome thats hard to determine in some years.
Fremantle v Collingwood(AH)
On paper and at home, you would think that we might be looking at a PK with Fremantle's form from last season being stellar and the pies looking clueless in their finals performance last year, but still strong generally in front of a home crowd.
Still, Fremantle has been edged as a favourite with bookmakers giving anywhere between 7-9 points to Collingwood.
At first, I really liked the juice on Collingwood at Etihad. They have beaten Fremantle 4 of the last 5 times, however the surge of Ross Lyon's influence over Fremantle is but a fraction of those performances.
In the media, Lyon has stated how he wished his team had 3 more weeks to prepare for the season, as he felt that they were somewhat behind other teams. I don't buy it, I agree with Shane Crawford's statement on The Footy Show last night, that Lyon is a sly old fox and that his team will be more then ready and it's but a small way of trying to catch his opponent off guard.
What further solidifies this point, to me, is that Fremantle spent a fair bit of dosh in the off-season and hired somewhat "spies", so to speak, to:
1. Find out what his first four opponents have been up to, both preparation wise and possible tactics 2. Ascertain training state 3. Research Hawthorns successful training and fitness regime
The Grand Final loss, Lyon's 3rd, visually still peeves him off, and I think he has had a burning desire, ever since that last day in September, to correct the small problems in Fremantle's offensive structure.
Collingwood, in 2010, looked like we were going to see them peak and reach another dynasty level. The trading of both Shaw in defence, and all-round utility Daisy, will be interesting to see how well the mid-field and defence communicate. I know Bucks will want to start the year strongly, but I think he will have his hands full.
Fremantle appear to be at full strength and this match will have been circled by Lyon as a must win. I'll go with a team that should be looking to continue their strong form from last season against a Pies side that will probably continue an inconsistent year.
I'll be playing Fremantle for 2 units on the line at (-7.5)
The first derby of the East comes at a time when both teams have made some significant changes to their teams. GWS acquired some more senior players in the off season whilst Sydney gained massive Hawks forward, Buddy Franklin.
I've watched and monitored both of these teams preparations in the off season and also taken what limited information you can from the practice pre-season NAB Challenge matches.
Last year, all of the AFL teams would have seen GWS as a percentage booster with only the likes of the Gold Coast and Melbourne having a bit more difficult time of it. GWS were ugly at covering large spreads last season and I don't see that changing in this match up. For me, it depends on how much Jeremy Cameron can be fed the ball, but with Sydney Swans defensive structure being on par with the best in the league, I think he will be well tagged leaving other on-ballers the hard task of scoring for GWS.
Whilst it is a suprise that O'Keeffe is not listed in the starting line up for Sydney, I am quite comfortable with him coming off the bench. I believe John Longmire wants to test what GWS is going to through at him in the mid-field and if GWS some how breaks down Sydney's offensive structure, then O'Keefee will play a more active role in the game.
It's round 1 and unlike the unexpected dogs results in the NRL, I believe that round 1 in the AFL is a bit more predictable.
Sydney should begin the round strong in the derby and I have no hesitation at backing a recent premiership team against the leagues newest, youngest and most inexperienced team.
My bet is Sydney Swans on the line for 1 unit at (-45.5).
Good luck.
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(1-0,+2u)
Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney
The first derby of the East comes at a time when both teams have made some significant changes to their teams. GWS acquired some more senior players in the off season whilst Sydney gained massive Hawks forward, Buddy Franklin.
I've watched and monitored both of these teams preparations in the off season and also taken what limited information you can from the practice pre-season NAB Challenge matches.
Last year, all of the AFL teams would have seen GWS as a percentage booster with only the likes of the Gold Coast and Melbourne having a bit more difficult time of it. GWS were ugly at covering large spreads last season and I don't see that changing in this match up. For me, it depends on how much Jeremy Cameron can be fed the ball, but with Sydney Swans defensive structure being on par with the best in the league, I think he will be well tagged leaving other on-ballers the hard task of scoring for GWS.
Whilst it is a suprise that O'Keeffe is not listed in the starting line up for Sydney, I am quite comfortable with him coming off the bench. I believe John Longmire wants to test what GWS is going to through at him in the mid-field and if GWS some how breaks down Sydney's offensive structure, then O'Keefee will play a more active role in the game.
It's round 1 and unlike the unexpected dogs results in the NRL, I believe that round 1 in the AFL is a bit more predictable.
Sydney should begin the round strong in the derby and I have no hesitation at backing a recent premiership team against the leagues newest, youngest and most inexperienced team.
My bet is Sydney Swans on the line for 1 unit at (-45.5).
All experts in the media are heavily tipping Gold Coast for the upset at home, much like they were able to produce last year. At the same time, Richmond will have revenge in their mind for that loss and their pre-season has been impeccable. Jack Riewoldt looks to be in the best shape of his life. I think Richmond are quite capable of a smashing, much like Fremantle produced last night.
Whilst I dare tip 3 favourites in a row, the only possible value I see here is the Richmond ML. But with such short results over an extremely hard game to cap, I don't recommend a play on this game.
My advice is to leave this game or if your hard pressed for some action, look at the value on either the Richmond ML as a multi/parlay booster (I don't recommend it to be your banker however) or, for even money value, look at the total game points and consider the over in what should be a free-flowing game. However, I won't be playing on either.
Good luck.
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Richmond vs Gold Coast
This is a no bet for me.
All experts in the media are heavily tipping Gold Coast for the upset at home, much like they were able to produce last year. At the same time, Richmond will have revenge in their mind for that loss and their pre-season has been impeccable. Jack Riewoldt looks to be in the best shape of his life. I think Richmond are quite capable of a smashing, much like Fremantle produced last night.
Whilst I dare tip 3 favourites in a row, the only possible value I see here is the Richmond ML. But with such short results over an extremely hard game to cap, I don't recommend a play on this game.
My advice is to leave this game or if your hard pressed for some action, look at the value on either the Richmond ML as a multi/parlay booster (I don't recommend it to be your banker however) or, for even money value, look at the total game points and consider the over in what should be a free-flowing game. However, I won't be playing on either.
@FadePublicATS - 1 unit is 1 unit? Perhaps you need to look at money management. Going all in on a round 1 bet is pretty clueless.
@hansivonmueller - I agree. Will be definite value in fading GWS after this win. Sydney were outclassed in every facet. When they lead by 4 goals, they simply made costly turnovers and gave all the motivation to GWS.
Port Adelaide v Carlton
I really believe that order is restored today in the AFL.
Mick Malthouse has received what he claims to be "the trade that can set Carlton's midfield straight" with Daisy Thomas joining the fray.
Port Adelaide were impressive last year and were extremely profitable when giving points ATS. Today in the first round though, is a perfect let down spot.
Two things for me:
1. Mick Malthouse's experience in opening rounds vs Ken Hinkley's. 2. The Carlton mid field.
I'll keep it simple. All hats off to GWS and GCS yesterday for impressive win's, but I cannot see another upset on the cards.
I'll be playing Carlton for 3 units on the line at (-8.5).
Good luck!
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@FadePublicATS - 1 unit is 1 unit? Perhaps you need to look at money management. Going all in on a round 1 bet is pretty clueless.
@hansivonmueller - I agree. Will be definite value in fading GWS after this win. Sydney were outclassed in every facet. When they lead by 4 goals, they simply made costly turnovers and gave all the motivation to GWS.
Port Adelaide v Carlton
I really believe that order is restored today in the AFL.
Mick Malthouse has received what he claims to be "the trade that can set Carlton's midfield straight" with Daisy Thomas joining the fray.
Port Adelaide were impressive last year and were extremely profitable when giving points ATS. Today in the first round though, is a perfect let down spot.
Two things for me:
1. Mick Malthouse's experience in opening rounds vs Ken Hinkley's. 2. The Carlton mid field.
I'll keep it simple. All hats off to GWS and GCS yesterday for impressive win's, but I cannot see another upset on the cards.
I'll be playing Carlton for 3 units on the line at (-8.5).
I'll keep this one simple. From the opening rounds, the theme, to me, seems to be team stability. For example, we saw a stable and well prepared Fremantle team tear apart a disorganised and fragmented Collingwood side.
Sydney's forward structure has completely changed and GWS pre-season seemed to have been all about applying continuous pressure. Whilst you can't read to much in to pre-season matches, I think GWS were quite happy with Sydney thumping them, only to suprise them with there real game plan come the time when it matters.
Then GCS were completely well drilled over a mediocre Richmond.
So what does this translate to Adelaide and Geelong? Both teams are adapting to new structures. Geelong letting go of 3 of their veterans (with J-Pod going to Adelaide), Hunt to GWS and Chapman to Essendon. Adelaide receiving, as mentioned J-Pod, Eddie Betts from Carlton, trading out Bernie Vince with a couple of other shuffles.
The thing about tonights match is that Adelaide knows Geelong all to well. Geelong have been notoriously a mess at covering spreads from 18+ onwards, I just think that, in terms of the theme surrounding round 1, that right now, they have a lot more stability. Certainly, a couple of injuries won't help, I believe at the Cattery though, Geelong will get the job done with the team lifting with Bartells 250th game. Twitter is alive by Geelong players imploring the public to get down to tonights game to support this, so I read that as a sign that they are truly prepared for their opening round
I'll be playing Geelong to win for 2 units on the line (-19.5 @ Centrebet).
My other leans right now for the rest of the round (will update)
Essendon +8.5 vs North Melbourne (3 units) Hawthorn -46.5 vs Brisbane Lions (1.5 units)
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Adelaide vs Geelong
I'll keep this one simple. From the opening rounds, the theme, to me, seems to be team stability. For example, we saw a stable and well prepared Fremantle team tear apart a disorganised and fragmented Collingwood side.
Sydney's forward structure has completely changed and GWS pre-season seemed to have been all about applying continuous pressure. Whilst you can't read to much in to pre-season matches, I think GWS were quite happy with Sydney thumping them, only to suprise them with there real game plan come the time when it matters.
Then GCS were completely well drilled over a mediocre Richmond.
So what does this translate to Adelaide and Geelong? Both teams are adapting to new structures. Geelong letting go of 3 of their veterans (with J-Pod going to Adelaide), Hunt to GWS and Chapman to Essendon. Adelaide receiving, as mentioned J-Pod, Eddie Betts from Carlton, trading out Bernie Vince with a couple of other shuffles.
The thing about tonights match is that Adelaide knows Geelong all to well. Geelong have been notoriously a mess at covering spreads from 18+ onwards, I just think that, in terms of the theme surrounding round 1, that right now, they have a lot more stability. Certainly, a couple of injuries won't help, I believe at the Cattery though, Geelong will get the job done with the team lifting with Bartells 250th game. Twitter is alive by Geelong players imploring the public to get down to tonights game to support this, so I read that as a sign that they are truly prepared for their opening round
I'll be playing Geelong to win for 2 units on the line (-19.5 @ Centrebet).
My other leans right now for the rest of the round (will update)
Essendon +8.5 vs North Melbourne (3 units) Hawthorn -46.5 vs Brisbane Lions (1.5 units)
What are your thoughts on the Kangas tonight? Essendon are in disarray and poor management and locker morale should transfer to poor performance. Thinking of laying the 11.5 tonight.
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What are your thoughts on the Kangas tonight? Essendon are in disarray and poor management and locker morale should transfer to poor performance. Thinking of laying the 11.5 tonight.
Really difficult game. Essendon have now blown out to 13.5 points from being at 8.5 just 24 hours ago. Massive money has come in for North.
In keeping with the tradition of Round 1, North has only 1-2 changes that I don't really see impacting them (addition of Del Santo etc). They did have a horrible pre-season but they themselves said that they were testing out different strategies.
North love to run the ball and I am considering whether the game total is of more value to play then the line. There was definite value on the line 24 hours ago, I'm just not sure about now.
Will Essendon still have a hangover affect from last year? Bomber is such a well drilled coach and I think his out to make a statement.
If the supplement scandal had never have happened, Essendon could have made the top 4 last year, it's such a hard game to predict.
Nevertheless, I don't want to deter your initial lean for North. I'm going to sit and look over a few more things before pulling the trigger on the total or a line.
Not much help on this one sorry mate. North are the team with more composure right now, I just hated their set plays in the pre-season, and I know it was just testing them, but mate, they looked ugly.
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Hey Enjoi
Really difficult game. Essendon have now blown out to 13.5 points from being at 8.5 just 24 hours ago. Massive money has come in for North.
In keeping with the tradition of Round 1, North has only 1-2 changes that I don't really see impacting them (addition of Del Santo etc). They did have a horrible pre-season but they themselves said that they were testing out different strategies.
North love to run the ball and I am considering whether the game total is of more value to play then the line. There was definite value on the line 24 hours ago, I'm just not sure about now.
Will Essendon still have a hangover affect from last year? Bomber is such a well drilled coach and I think his out to make a statement.
If the supplement scandal had never have happened, Essendon could have made the top 4 last year, it's such a hard game to predict.
Nevertheless, I don't want to deter your initial lean for North. I'm going to sit and look over a few more things before pulling the trigger on the total or a line.
Not much help on this one sorry mate. North are the team with more composure right now, I just hated their set plays in the pre-season, and I know it was just testing them, but mate, they looked ugly.
Essendon has now blown out to +14.5 dogs. The public aren't overly confident that they have themselves together, I just can't underestimate the passion that Bomber has for this season.
I believe that there is now sufficient value to take Essendon on the line at (+14.5) for 1.5 units.
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Essendon has now blown out to +14.5 dogs. The public aren't overly confident that they have themselves together, I just can't underestimate the passion that Bomber has for this season.
I believe that there is now sufficient value to take Essendon on the line at (+14.5) for 1.5 units.
Thanks for the analysis, even though I went a head with North Melb. What a poor showing by them and you were absolutely right about their ugly play. What's good for tonight?
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Thanks for the analysis, even though I went a head with North Melb. What a poor showing by them and you were absolutely right about their ugly play. What's good for tonight?
Thanks for the analysis, even though I went a head with North Melb. What a poor showing by them and you were absolutely right about their ugly play. What's good for tonight?
Yeah, it was definitely ugly mate. They looked ok for the first quarter, but noone really looked like scoring apart from Thomas. You couldn't be faulted for choosing North though, I think Essendon though will still pose value against top sides (Hawks, Geelong, Fremantle) - Just have to chose the right spot. Hirdy mightnt have a job to come home too!
The Hawks match is a tough one to gauge, we saw what happened when we laid big points in Round 1. But I really will take a lot from the pre-season with them. Set plays, structures, defensive positions in tact and of course "Buddy who?".
Brisbane has a new coach coming in but is one team that I have to say I haven't followed as closely. So they are a bit of an unknown right now.
Hawks traditionally play well in Tasmania, but I will probably play them on the line for 1 unit only.
The value tonight is on St Kilda and Melbourne. I can't believe Melbourne is a $1.55 favourite against the Saints. How the times have changed!
I'll be back soon, but it looks like a small play on the Hawks line.
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Quote Originally Posted by Enjoi:
Thanks for the analysis, even though I went a head with North Melb. What a poor showing by them and you were absolutely right about their ugly play. What's good for tonight?
Yeah, it was definitely ugly mate. They looked ok for the first quarter, but noone really looked like scoring apart from Thomas. You couldn't be faulted for choosing North though, I think Essendon though will still pose value against top sides (Hawks, Geelong, Fremantle) - Just have to chose the right spot. Hirdy mightnt have a job to come home too!
The Hawks match is a tough one to gauge, we saw what happened when we laid big points in Round 1. But I really will take a lot from the pre-season with them. Set plays, structures, defensive positions in tact and of course "Buddy who?".
Brisbane has a new coach coming in but is one team that I have to say I haven't followed as closely. So they are a bit of an unknown right now.
Hawks traditionally play well in Tasmania, but I will probably play them on the line for 1 unit only.
The value tonight is on St Kilda and Melbourne. I can't believe Melbourne is a $1.55 favourite against the Saints. How the times have changed!
I'll be back soon, but it looks like a small play on the Hawks line.
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