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AFL Round 18 - Discussion

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Posted: #1
Hi everyone.  Here are this weeks lines, let's find some winners:
 
Coll Vs Hawks (-15.5)
 
Ess (-26.5) VsMelb
 
Adel (-8.5) Vs Carl
 
Geel (-31.5) Vs Rich
 
Nth Melb Vs Bris (-6.5)
 
Bulldogs (-14.5) Vs Syd
 
Saints (-30.5) Vs Port
 
Freo (-13.5) Vs West Coast
 
Games that interest me the most are Adel, North Melb, Syd & Saints.  And I really like Adel and Siants the most. 
 
I think that Carl really struggle when sides are physical and apply intense pressure, which if last Sat night ais nything to go by Adel could inflect a heavy loss.  They shut Fev down last time, which 'should' happen again, thus I really like this game the most this week.
 
Also liking Port alot to get touched up by the Saints, although I have mentioned many times that it is hard for sides to come back from WA (that being the Saints this week).  Port 'have' packed in the season and at some stage before the end of the home-and-away they will get a touch up....my guessing is the last game in Melb against the Kangaroo's.
 
Let's see if we can find some winners...
 
 
 
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If we are not going to discuss games, can someone at least give me a weather update for tonight, and if possible....also an update closer to kick off? 
 
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Posted: #4
crows ml and swannies (+15.5)



miracle
 
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Posted: #5
A couple of thoughts:
- Carlton have scored 100+ in 5 of last 6 weeks, although against some not so strong defensive teams. Adelaide's highest score in the last 6 weeks is 80. Not too excited about taking Carlton, but hard to be excited about crows given their lack of scoring
- port have beaten st kilda 11 of last 12. hard to back port. but this would make it had to take st kilda
 
 
 
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weather is ok now but its expected to rain, then again it has supposed to have been raining all week.  Judging by the weather, it will rain by gametime and possibly throughout gametime.  I am only a km or so from the MCG and will be here when the game starts, can provide updates if you want.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by gmanea:

weather is ok now but its expected to rain, then again it has supposed to have been raining all week.  Judging by the weather, it will rain by gametime and possibly throughout gametime.  I am only a km or so from the MCG and will be here when the game starts, can provide updates if you want.

If you could just before game time...around an hour out, that would be great 

 
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Posted: #8
Roos +6.5 over Brisbane is the bet of the round for sure.

Again, rolling with the Lions are crap away from the Gabba pattern.

Roos win this one straight up, IMO.


 
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Posted: #9
I also like Port and the points.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

If you could just before game time...around an hour out, that would be great 



sure no worries
 
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Posted: #11
Punters helping each other
 
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Posted: #12
started raining on and off now for the last 1/2 hr or drizzling I should say but I think only a matter of time before it starts bucketing down
 
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My POW is def Adel -8.5.  They will win this game by 20-30 IMO.
 
Carl will have trouble handling the pressure, and also with many young players in their side you tend to find teams like this start to struggle with the full demands of the whole season. We have seen this before I sure....so the Crows are a very good pick for me this weekend....weather is going to be a bit iffy, but this will only play in the Crows 'bigger' bodies' hands 
 
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Posted: #14
weather ok now, expected to rain but looking ok now.  I think it wont be too bad.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by gmanea:

weather ok now, expected to rain but looking ok now.  I think it wont be too bad.

Thanks g-man....line down to 13.5, any thoughts on that?

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Thanks g-man....line down to 13.5, any thoughts on that?




I don't usually worry too much about what other people are doing, just means there was more late money for the Pies rather than Hawks.  Pies have a lot more supporters too haha.  Only would worry about a drastic line movement indicating a big out.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

My POW is def Adel -8.5.  They will win this game by 20-30 IMO.
 
Carl will have trouble handling the pressure, and also with many young players in their side you tend to find teams like this start to struggle with the full demands of the whole season. We have seen this before I sure....so the Crows are a very good pick for me this weekend....weather is going to be a bit iffy, but this will only play in the Crows 'bigger' bodies' hands 


Adelaide's inability recently to put points on the board is worrisome though...
 
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Posted: #18
Miracle, give us some more insight to your Adelaide tip.  Surely Carlton coming off Interstate has something to do with it...
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Miracle, give us some more insight to your Adelaide tip.  Surely Carlton coming off Interstate has something to do with it...

Yes the interstate does have something to do with it, but like I have mentioned before, and unless I am 100% incorrect I have been on the money with all my Adel & Port picks this year.

I know their prep for this weekend has been extensive, and this is a 'must' win game for them.  If they play with the same intensity as last weekend they will cover this game by the margin I stated above.  Hope that helps you, as I can't disclose my sources as you would imagine. 

 
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Posted: #20
Adelaide Under 39.5, should be a low scoring affair ?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by GodsGift:

Adelaide Under 39.5, should be a low scoring affair ?


I was wondering that too.  Miracle, do you reckon the -6.5 or the 1-39 is the better play here? 
 
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Posted: #22
Line is jumping well now.  -6.5 to -7.5 and -8 at some spots. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



I was wondering that too.  Miracle, do you reckon the -6.5 or the 1-39 is the better play here? 

Sorry guys...have baby sitting duties on Sat morning and thus hard to get back to the computer.  Take the line, not the 1-39 as it is decent weather here in Adel and while I don't think Adel will blow the Blues out here I think they win by the 20-30 as already stated.  And rain won't be a huge factor thus taking the 1-39 is more risky than the line, IMO.

GL guys with what ever you play

 
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Well, just woke up and the game is in the 3rd Quarter at 54-54. 

Oh well, at least that means I"ll have the energy to watch the Wallabies and then me Roosters!

Ah, life is grand!!! 
 
 
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94-62 to the Crows now, early 4th. 

Too bad I passed out from exhaustion and didn't get up in time to place this one.

Good picking Miracle!!!
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