Dogs now cruising to a big win, looking to the next matches...
St Kilda/Carlton The Blues midfield can match it with the saints, in fact with anybody. But one of the Blues major problems is their defence, I think they rank 15th or 16th. The saints have one of the best offences and the tallest. Wet conditions in Melbourne today shouldn't be a concern as its at the dome (roof should be closed), so the saints big men should win through.
St Kilda's spread is too big for me at this time of year -26.5. I need to think about it more.
Fremantle/Hawthorn I was disappointed with the dockers last week but they are a different team at home. The hawks killed melbourne which doesn't tell me much.
The spread is moving towards the hawks, was +4 now +1.5.
As much as I know Fremantle will be much stronger at home I still want to back the Hawks. They are only going to get better and better. They can use Roughhead on Pavlich (with Croad out) if other alternatives don't work and with Hodge back its a huge plus. Hawks +1.5
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Dogs now cruising to a big win, looking to the next matches...
St Kilda/Carlton The Blues midfield can match it with the saints, in fact with anybody. But one of the Blues major problems is their defence, I think they rank 15th or 16th. The saints have one of the best offences and the tallest. Wet conditions in Melbourne today shouldn't be a concern as its at the dome (roof should be closed), so the saints big men should win through.
St Kilda's spread is too big for me at this time of year -26.5. I need to think about it more.
Fremantle/Hawthorn I was disappointed with the dockers last week but they are a different team at home. The hawks killed melbourne which doesn't tell me much.
The spread is moving towards the hawks, was +4 now +1.5.
As much as I know Fremantle will be much stronger at home I still want to back the Hawks. They are only going to get better and better. They can use Roughhead on Pavlich (with Croad out) if other alternatives don't work and with Hodge back its a huge plus. Hawks +1.5
I think Port are going to miss Wakelin more than anticipated. His absence left a big hole in defence last week and really let them score everytime the ball went in the 50. This should give Barry Hall more of an opportunity to get some form and make their offence more effective. It should be a good contest and close match and am a little worried taking the spread.
Going with Swans 1-39 pts
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Sydney/Port
I think Port are going to miss Wakelin more than anticipated. His absence left a big hole in defence last week and really let them score everytime the ball went in the 50. This should give Barry Hall more of an opportunity to get some form and make their offence more effective. It should be a good contest and close match and am a little worried taking the spread.
It was great to see the tigers get a win last week. Apart from a 4 week period last year (where they were beaten by more than 10 goals), their record of (I think) 5 wins in a little over a year says they have been less competitive than they actually are.
When I look through the possible matchups, with every tigers strength the kangas have a suitable player to conteract. The more I look into it the more I like the Kangas to win and cover.
Kangaroos -7.5
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Richmond/Kangas
It was great to see the tigers get a win last week. Apart from a 4 week period last year (where they were beaten by more than 10 goals), their record of (I think) 5 wins in a little over a year says they have been less competitive than they actually are.
When I look through the possible matchups, with every tigers strength the kangas have a suitable player to conteract. The more I look into it the more I like the Kangas to win and cover.
tozer, I need some input on the Roos/Tigs match-up. Is this going to be a close game, back-and-forth for most of the match, with one side pipping it at the end.....or should we see a side, either side, go up a little and start to draw away consistently as the match goes on. What are your thoughts?
Ex. - If the Roos (or Richmond) are up, let's say, 20 or 30 by the 5-minute mark of the 2Q.....will they hold on and start to pull away, or would a Richmond )or Roos) fight-back, and lead, be a very real possibility? I know anything can happen in AFL, and it usually does, but I have a special interest in this match and need some precise thoughts here. Thanks.
For instance, last week's Adelaide/WB match-up saw a see-saw affair....one up by 10, then down by 10, up by 5, down by 5....etc for the whole match.
Then we had last night's Blues/Saints match in which the Blues were up early but once St. Kilda scored....it was a consistent barrage and they never looked back or were threatened.
Which of the two might you see happening tonight?
Anyone else chime in as well please.
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tozer, I need some input on the Roos/Tigs match-up. Is this going to be a close game, back-and-forth for most of the match, with one side pipping it at the end.....or should we see a side, either side, go up a little and start to draw away consistently as the match goes on. What are your thoughts?
Ex. - If the Roos (or Richmond) are up, let's say, 20 or 30 by the 5-minute mark of the 2Q.....will they hold on and start to pull away, or would a Richmond )or Roos) fight-back, and lead, be a very real possibility? I know anything can happen in AFL, and it usually does, but I have a special interest in this match and need some precise thoughts here. Thanks.
For instance, last week's Adelaide/WB match-up saw a see-saw affair....one up by 10, then down by 10, up by 5, down by 5....etc for the whole match.
Then we had last night's Blues/Saints match in which the Blues were up early but once St. Kilda scored....it was a consistent barrage and they never looked back or were threatened.
Given Richmonds history over the past 12 months (outside 5 horrific losses) every other game has been within 5-5.5 goals. I don't expect a blowout. I think it'll be a hard fought match by both sides. I can't see it being anything like Blues/Saints.
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Given Richmonds history over the past 12 months (outside 5 horrific losses) every other game has been within 5-5.5 goals. I don't expect a blowout. I think it'll be a hard fought match by both sides. I can't see it being anything like Blues/Saints.
Staying away from the Geelong/Essendon match, although the cats should definately get a win, I'm just need to see how the bombers can handle a very good side. Their form coming into the season is impeccable, they are probably the fastest side in the comp now.
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Staying away from the Geelong/Essendon match, although the cats should definately get a win, I'm just need to see how the bombers can handle a very good side. Their form coming into the season is impeccable, they are probably the fastest side in the comp now.
One thing I've noticed with the results so far this season, which I believe is due to the increased speed of the game, is how easy it is for teams to cover spreads and the huge blowouts that are happening.
Even teams like Sydney, that aren't noted for their offence, easily piled on goal after goal, in a short space of time.
Once the game opens up, in the second half, spreads, even large ones, can be covered more easily than previous seasons.
From next week, I would feel more comfortable taking larger spreads, depending on the team and situation of course.
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One thing I've noticed with the results so far this season, which I believe is due to the increased speed of the game, is how easy it is for teams to cover spreads and the huge blowouts that are happening.
Even teams like Sydney, that aren't noted for their offence, easily piled on goal after goal, in a short space of time.
Once the game opens up, in the second half, spreads, even large ones, can be covered more easily than previous seasons.
From next week, I would feel more comfortable taking larger spreads, depending on the team and situation of course.
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