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Battler's NBL Round 20

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Posted: #1
Not overly confident in this
 
 
Breakers o99.5 1H (2)
 
Breakers o199 (2)
 
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Posted: #2

AB – I like your perspective on this total, but I'm leaning toward the under once again, feel that the Dragons success in the previous match-up came as a result of defensive pressure (10 steals) and they'll try the same again today.  The shooting in the last match was very accurate, the Dragons shot 50.6% from the field whilst the Breakers made 53.9%.  More telling though was the accuracy from beyond the arc, the Dragons made 12 from 30 at 40% (including 9 from 17 in the 2nd at 52.9%) and the Breakers made 18 from 38 at 47.4% (including 11 from 21 in the 2nd at 52.4%).  Even so, at the end of regular time the total was only 194.

I just don't see similar accuracy in this match, and whilst the Breakers will attempt to run, surely the Dragons won't join in. Good luck, but I'm on the under on this one.  One of us will win at least.

 
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Posted: #3
Astounding stats given that both teams have been playing terribly of late.
 
 
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Posted: #4
Dragons ML for me
 
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Posted: #5
On my part going over. Against what I would normally go with. Taking the gut feel.
 
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Posted: #6
over backers could be onto something today, with both teams coming off sub-90 point games
 
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Posted: #7

Dragons lead 56-37 at the half.

A stack of fouls called in the first half (25), and whilst the Breakers have been accurate from the line (78%) the same can't be said of the Dragons (50%).

The corresponding match a few weeks ago saw the Breakers leading at the half 55 – 50, with the Breakers having made 7 from 17 three point attempts (at 41.2%) and the Dragons 3 / 13 (at 23.1%).  3pt accuracy from the Breakers has not been similar so far in this match (at 18%) whilst the Dragons have been pretty good at 38%.

Total could still fall either way in this one.  Good luck all.

 
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Posted: #8
Piss..
 
 
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Posted: #9
I hate betting sides in these new zealand games, every one of them seems to involve a huge lead and a huge comeback
 
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Posted: #10

Well done on the Dragons Jive, good win

You'll get them next time Battler

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Gun7:

Well done on the Dragons Jive, good win

You'll get them next time Battler

Cheers Gun. Great call JT.

 

I think these Breakers are done. Adelaide might knock 'em in the first finals game

 
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Posted: #12
I've had an ordinary day on the punt. A few of these .
 
Fire up Roddick
 
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Posted: #13
thanks gun and AB, that game really ran in spurts as far as the scoring went. Some dreadfully slow starts to most quarters and really huge sprees towards the end. the over nearly got there in the end.
 
games on tv have been really few and far between this season but the more I watch and wonder about this amazing UNDER trend this season (and for a lot of last season too) , the more it becomes clear why it's happening -----> the sloppy ball handling, the fumbles ect and the lack of urgency teams show in taking advantage of fast break opportunities is quite astounding imo.
 
couple that with the below average shooting (particularly three point shooting) that I'm sure must be in effect this season and it just leads to so much shot clock burning and scoring droughts.
 
Does anyone want to take a "guesstimate" at the % of NBL games this season that have gone under the total ?
 
I reckon it would be very close to two thirds, or 66%  
 
 
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Posted: #14
Never bet with the gut feel......after all these years punting

Jive_turkey I did see another forum where someone had calculated at around that same figure. Two seasons ago you could reverse that everything went OVER.
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