Work has kept me away for ages now, but have been dropping in throughout the NBL season. I favour NSW in tonight's match, form means all in this format of the game and the VIC top order hasn't produced much at all lately. 120-130 could win it easily on this pitch.
No play on NSW though, playing a purely statistical angle in this, something which I never usually do. However, the numbers offered by the books are just far too attractive. On a pitch that has averaged approximately 45% of dismissals in the 'bowled' category for this tournament, $5.50 is over the odds imo. For opening batsmen, this percentage increases slightly to 46%. Throw in the fact that both bowling lineups are filled with top opening strike weapons and the NSW lineup has Warner, I'm playing:
MOD - 1st NSW wicket = Bowled @ $5.50 (0.75 unit)
MOD - 1st VIC wicket = Bowled @ $5.50 (0.5 unit)
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