Cycling: 2010 Paris-Nice & Tirreno Adriatico (next week)

Final Bets:

I'm not going through with that Haussler over Chicchi bet

3 units Haedo over Fernandez @ $1.65
4 units Haussler over Roelandts x Greipel over Henderson @ $2.05
3 units Bozic over Fernandez @ $1.66
5 units Haussler to place @ $2.20

I forgot my Duque over Bonnet play.

Okay, these two guys will battle it out for 6-12. There is absolutely nothing between them. The match is even, so the odds should be more like 1.85 each.

But, they have Duque @ $2.70

In a 50/50 bet, literally, $2.70 is way over the odds. I am taking this risk in the fact that its over the odds and if it pays off, I'm a genius. If it doesn't, it was worht the risk.

2 units Duque over Bonnet @ $2.70

Cool so who do ya write for Bolar?... Also what sites do use for cycling fields, results etc?...



I was talking to someone today about that Doque/Bonnet bet and they rate Doque pretty highly... so if you think it's alright maybe I should have abit on it...


So who ya reckon will win it?... Greipel looks pretty good... Watchin columbia set up for the sprint is magic to watch aye... I havent had time to check the fields... Who is ridin for columbia?..

Cycling Fields and results

www.cyclingnews.com
www.dailypeloton.com

In regards to races themselves.

www.cyclinglinks.nl - has a list of all races with links to their official website.

to follow racing live

dailypeloton occasionally have live tickets
cyclingnews has live tickers for major races.

for tv of the stages:

www.cyclingfans.com
www.steephill.tv
www.podiumcafe.com - they can occasionally have links up.

I don't know who will win it. Greipel SHOULD win it. He has this team

Marcel Sieberg, Hayden Roulston, Matthew Goss, Tony Martin, Maxime Monfort, Craig Lewis, Adam Hansen

That's an alright lead-out but I'm not convinced.

I'm loving Haussler for a place, and that's a huge play for me. www.sportingbet.com.au have the place market up.

in regards to best sites to place a bet with:

www.bet365.com - best in-play for cycling
www.sportingbet.com - good for head to heads
www.pinaclesports.com - head to heads during the grand tours
www.unibet.com - excellent markets and some specials, ie. spanish riders over 3.5

In Australia,

Centrebet.com have head to heads all the time.

Sportingbet.com.au are looking more into cycling this year, hence the only site having a podium market tonight.

And Duque, I've thought about putting more on it. He shouldnt' be 2.70. He should be like 1.85. Duque consistently gets top 10's. I don't think Bonnet is a huge field sprinter but Duque is.

Duque was the only one to get up.

The rest bombed.

Tirreno-Adriatico Outrights

Won't do much stage betting here.

1 unit Lovkvist @ $15
4 units Lokvist to podium @ $4

Overall matchups

5 units Vinokourov over Gerdemann @ $1.83
3 units Lovkvist over Rogers @ $1.83
3 units Visconti over Iglinski @ $1.83

Good luck!

I'm not comfortable betting against Cav... So I'll either back him or stay away from the stage victory market...

Havent looked at sportingbet h2h's yet...

Cav won't win stage one.

A) He hasn't won a race all year
B) He's had fitness troubles - mostly dental that's affected his training
C) There is a short climb within the last 10km of the stage
D) He has a shit team around him

This corresponding stage yesterday, someone that attacked on a similar climb took stage victory and Cav was nowhere to be seen.

I've pinpointed two great head to heads in Stage 1. And I may be backing Freire each way in the stage.

Other than that, I WILL be backing Cav on Tuesday's flat stage. That's a definate bunch sprint with no obstacles and Cav should get on the winner's list there.

Freire over Bennati
Pozzato over Visconti
Boonen over EBH

All look like great head to heads for stage one. But I won't be making a call on stage one till later tomorrow.

Corresponding stage last year I meant to say.

Cav's best chance of winning is on the final stage on Tuesday. He'll be around 4-5 dollars providing he doesn't win the stage tomorrow. That's going to be a huge play.

Ok I'll take your advice... I'm gonna stay away from the stage 1 winner market...  I spotted that oscar freire matchup bet also... I'm by no means an expert but it stood out for some reason...

Freire is in excellent form.

2 wins in Route du sud - with a field including Cavendish and Henderson.

And another win.

Bennati only has one win for the year.

I might have something small on those 2 matchups in a multi...

So why do ya think oscar freire wins this stage?...

He can get over the hill no problems at all.

It's either him or Boonen. Boonen is looking towards Flanders and Roubaix. Freire is looking to win and Rabobank have a decent squad there.

Bennati is an outside chance but I can't see him match Freire.

Stage 2 - Paris-Nice

3 units Roelandts over Bonnet @ $1.60
2 units Henderson over Bozic @ $1.71

I'll stick with Duque

2 units Duque over Casper @ $1.95

Roelandts over Bonnet @ $1.60  
Henderson over Bozic @ $1.71  
Duque over Casper @ $1.95  

Duque performing well in these matchups so far... Only one to hit both days...

Final Overall Plays in Tirreno-Adriatico

1 unit Lovkvist @ $15
4 units Lokvist to podium @ $4

Overall matchups

5 units Vinokourov over Gerdemann @ $1.83
7 units Vinokourov over Hesjedal @ $1.92 - Vino talks of top five. Hesjedal should struggle here.
3 units Lovkvist over Rogers @ $1.83
3 units Visconti over Iglinski @ $1.83

Stage 1

I'm going to back track from Freire and go with Boonen. The weather in Italy by all reports is cold and is going to make this a real classics sort of stage that you would find in Belgium. They are even talking of potentially snow. This weather will suit Boonen.

1 unit Boonen @ $11
3 units Boonen to place @ $3.25
3 units Boonen over Boasson-Hagen @ $1.85

Good luck!

Paris Nice - Stage 3

5 units Kreuziger over Boom @ $1.62
7 units Sanchez over Voigt @ $1.45

Tirreno-Adriatico - Stage 1

5 units Freire over Bennati @ $1.50

Good luck!

Hey bolar what are the chances of Freire and Boonen both finishing in the top3?... Or will it only be one or the other up there?...

Last year in the TDF, I made a lot of money backing Cavendish for a win and Farrar for a place until the books changed the odds.

You need to evaluate the sprinters when trying to make such a huge call.

Mark Cavendish
Oscar Freire
Tom Boonen
Daniele Bennati
Alessandro Pettachi
Tyler Farrar
Thor Hushovd
Filippo Pozzato
Edvald Boasson-Hagen

Then you have the second tier who shouldn't figure

Robbie McEwen
Alan Davis
Luca Paolini

So immediately you rule McEwen, Davis and Paolini out.

EBH is a quality rider but can he out-sprint some of those guys? probably not

Pettachi won't have a problem with this bump near the end but he crashed earlier in the week. Could he figure up there? Maybe, maybe not. 50/50.

Cavendish has had an interupted season and is not fit and has a shithouse lead out train. Could he factor top 3? 50/50. I certainly wouldn't back him for a win. Not yet anyway.

Hushovd looked strong in the semi classics 2 weekends ago. Freire has been winning races. Bennati is hot and cold and looks he has got it together this year. Boonen is a class act but is he worrying about sprint finishes now? Garmin have come out and said that Farrar will go for it regardless so they are looking for him to win this stage or place it.

I would say it's a 50/50 chance both are in the top 3 tonight. I would give it a 95% chance that one of them are in the top 3.

After reading those comments about Farrar a part of me wishes I backed him top 3 instead of Boonen.

It's a tough one to call as 5 or even 6 could finish top 3. So to have both of them finish top 3 is too hard to predict.

Go for one of them and hope you made the right selection. I look at the weather and I think I made the right selection with Boonen. But will Boonen screw me over and Freire do what I thought he was going to do all along? Time will tell.

The weather turned me to Boonen. The odds turned me to Boonen. And I sure as hell hope it pays off.

Yeah boonen @ $3.25 the place is lookin pretty juicy to me...

Do you recommend backing him each way?...


I added you as friend aswell 

Yeah, why not.

As I say, the conditions suit him more than anyone there. Today should be a bunch sprint. The sprinters don't have many opportunities to make things work. Today is the day and Tuesday next week.

Tuesday next week is my Cavendish play. He'll be good odds. Particularly if he doesn't win a stage which we should be hoping for.

Ok for sure... Hopefully we get abit of cash on the stages leading up to it so we can load up lol...

I'll back him each way...