Okay, this is a real lottery this year. It's not straight forward as it seems.
The sprinters will be hoping to save their legs and not go too hard too early so they are right for the World's in Geelong. But I was on the World's course last week with Columbia-HTC and I can tell you, it's not a sprinters course.
Secondly, last week I spoke to Greipel, asked him about the TDU. He's not sure. He said that he wants to be right for the end of the year so we'll have to see. He didn't give anything away but from what I can gather Columbia will be happy with a stage win. They don't feel the pressure of going for the overall win and they can't work anything out until a stage comes.
I can also say that seeing Davis on the weekend, he is unfit. Very unfit. He won't come into calculations.
So if Greipel and Davis are questionable, who does that leave? Guys like Steegmans, Rojas, McEwen, Brown etc? Forget the latter two.
Henderson will struggle to hang on over the Willunga stage so Sky's sprinter, Henderson won't win overall, but may try a few stages.
Steegmans would want to start new well with his team and Armstrong would want a Radioshack win knowing he can't do it himself, they will work for Steegmans.
This is hard to choose at this point the winner. If Columbia-HTC go for the win, Greipel will shit it in thus $3 is a good price. However, based on what Peiper and Greipel both told me last week, I do not have confidence playing them.
However, we assume that a break won't go away and every stage will be a bunch sprint.
At the moment, there is only one bet on that basis that I'm willing to play. Juan Jose Rojas top 3.
The last two years, this guy has finished third. The time bonifications will suit him and he is a consistent rider.
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