Cycling: 2010 Tour Down Under

Okay, this is a real lottery this year. It's not straight forward as it seems.

The sprinters will be hoping to save their legs and not go too hard too early so they are right for the World's in Geelong. But I was on the World's course last week with Columbia-HTC and I can tell you, it's not a sprinters course.

Secondly, last week I spoke to Greipel, asked him about the TDU. He's not sure. He said that he wants to be right for the end of the year so we'll have to see. He didn't give anything away but from what I can gather Columbia will be happy with a stage win. They don't feel the pressure of going for the overall win and they can't work anything out until a stage comes.

I can also say that seeing Davis on the weekend, he is unfit. Very unfit. He won't come into calculations.

So if Greipel and Davis are questionable, who does that leave? Guys like Steegmans, Rojas, McEwen, Brown etc? Forget the latter two.

Henderson will struggle to hang on over the Willunga stage so Sky's sprinter, Henderson won't win overall, but may try a few stages.

Steegmans would want to start new well with his team and Armstrong would want a Radioshack win knowing he can't do it himself, they will work for Steegmans.

This is hard to choose at this point the winner. If Columbia-HTC go for the win, Greipel will shit it in thus $3 is a good price. However, based on what Peiper and Greipel both told me last week, I do not have confidence playing them.

However, we assume that a break won't go away and every stage will be a bunch sprint.

At the moment, there is only one bet on that basis that I'm willing to play. Juan Jose Rojas top 3.

The last two years, this guy has finished third. The time bonifications will suit him and he is a consistent rider.

 

 

https://cyclingexpert.blogspot.com/

I'll be blogging all my cycling bets too this year.

nice work mate. added to favs

BOL this year

Thanks. I'll have more detailed information by race start.

Great info and interesting read. Where do you get to meet the guys?

BOL

They were on a training ride for the world's course in Geelong. I was with them in the car.

Word has it some books will be having top 3.

If you can get Rojas, the caisse d'epargne sprinter for top 3 then take it as it's a good bet. Just got to hope every stage like every other year is a sprint finish.

Rojas has no troubles over that Willunga climb either.

Luxbet.com have a market up as do Centrebet for the Australian market.

Skybet are the only ones that have followed on the international scene and Betfair naturally have a market up.

Luxbet have Greipel at 4 and everyone else has him at 2.50 or thereabouts. That is very tempting.

None are willing to offer top 3 though's which are pissing me off. I just requested if Sportingbet can follow the lead and put in the top 3 market as well. THey were originally thinking of it. Now that the other books are on board they might and I might get a top 3 market up.

Rojas is also $15 for the win at Luxbet and everyone else has him around $10. That is tempting as an outright bet - assuming all are sprint finishes but he really needs a stage win or two to win outright and I doubt that will happen unless he gets in a break and the sprinters might save their legs this year.

I will have to go with betfair top 3 and hope people lay the price I offer for Rojas top 3. I will offer him as $3 for top 3 and I will pound it hoping someone lays it.

As mentioned if you back anything in this you back Greipel to win - at a good price and $4 seems a very good price or Rojas top 3.

 

Hey Bolar- did you catch this ?

<<Whoa!!! Adelaide came out!! Thx to every1 for being there. Estimates were anywhere between 5 and 10 thousand folks. On bikes!!>>

Seems like Lance went out to ride with folks around the Wigley reserve today. What an amazing experience that must be.

No I didn't. Thanks for letting me know.

I might be getting there with Rojas top 3.

First bet of the year (I don't care if it's a loss - it's worth playing this).

3.5 units Rojas to podium @ $3.25 (IAS BET)

Third the last two years. Should keep going providing all stages end up in sprints.

The dickhead books now have taken the markets down. If you want top 3, you'll have to do betfair.

I'll be keeping an eye on Rojas in the classic today. Yes, criteriums probably don't suit him however the reason I backed him to come top three overall is his ability to remain consistent and he's one of the few sprinters that can hold wheels over Willunga Hill.

If he performs well in the crit today, i.e come top 3 or 5, I will seriously consider him for the overall win.

I know this is too late but Rojas to podium is 3.80 at W.Hill. I'm considering opening an account with this major book because they are the only ones to offer it and the prices are good.

BOL

Damn,

Do it! He was 8th today in the prelude. Henderson I doubt can stick around on Willunga hill. Same with Sutton and McEwen and a few others. As I say, he's a solid bet. It may pay off, it may not, but at that price, I would take it. Seeing if I can sign up to WillHill because that is a good price.

up to 4.50 now

now bet365 comes in with odds for matchups and outright but no top 3

they do have greipel @3 which seems to be high when compared to the average elsewhere

Bet365 matchups?

Luxbet have Greipel at 4, I would do something there.

Andre Greipel    1.62    Allan Davis    2.15
Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil    1.62    Baden Cooke    2.15     
Lance Armstrong    1.83    Alejandro Valverde    1.83
Martin Elmiger    1.62    Mauro Santambrogio    2.15     
Matthew Wilson    1.71    Mikael Cherel    2.00     
Luis Leon Sanchez    1.83    Michael Rogers    1.83

These are the overall matchups which offer some interesting angles.

They also have poster stage 1 matchups.

* poster = posted

So, WilliamHill also have matchups available for stage 1. The problem with these is the heavy juice on the favorites. Unless someone can pin point the mistake by the books with a huge dog, there is not much value here. Do you think this fits in your strategy Bolar?

I'm going to have a look and suggest stuff to you mate.

I'm at the TDU in the media centre and nearly everyone is saying Rojas will perform well here.

McEwen over Davis might be a good bet. Same with Henderson over Greipel.....

Bet365 might be doing live betting on Saturday on the cycling too.

Final Overall Plays:

3.5 units Rojas to podium @ $3.25
3 units Rojas over Cooke @ $1.62
2 units Elmiger over Santambrogio @ $1.62

Stage 1

2 units Hunter over Steegmans @ $1.83
1 units Forster over Hutarovich @ $2..50

Good luck