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Cycling: Giro d'Italia

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Captain
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Posts: 5831
Posted: #1
I'm going to be a light on when it comes to the Giro this year. I've come off a successful Romandie which has put my season back on track though still in the negative bracket.

Oh, and I probably won't be doing classics next year. I've failed 2 years in a row at them. Too unpredictable.

Let's go through the contenders

Evans - The form he is in, if he doesn't win this, he has choked big time and will never win a GT.

Basso - He's focusing on the TDF

Sastre - Challenger

Vino - No hope to win

Garzelli - No hope to win

Scarponi - No hope to win

Cunego - No hope to win.

Based on this, I am playing one overall bet at the moment. I don't trust Evans yet, though I should put an insane amount of money on him.

8 units Sastre top 3 @ $2.20

Good luck

 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Points Classification

8 units Greipel @ $3.50
6 units Greipel over Petacchi @ $1.66

That bet above on Sastre ended a 6 unit play. I wasn't allowed to put 8 units on it. So I just went for 6.


 
Captain
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Posted: #3
Have taken these H2H's thus far.

3 units Karpets over Caruso @ $1.80
2.7 units Sastre over Basso @ $1.85
2.7 units Evans over Sastre @ $1.65

 
Captain
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Posted: #4
6 units Dupont over Porte @ $1.66
3 units Vinokourov over Nibali @ $1.72
5 units Sastre over Basso @ $1.75
8 units Evans over Basso @ $1.50

4 units Garzelli over Cunego x Evans over Basso @ $2.25



 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Final Overall Bets:

Overall GC

6 units Dupont over Porte @ $1.66
2 units Vinokourov over Nibali @ $1.72
6 units Sastre over Basso @ $1.75
8 units Evans over Basso @ $1.50
3 units Karpets over Caruso @ $1.80
2.7 units Sastre over Basso @ $1.85
2.7 units Evans over Sastre @ $1.65
4 units Garzelli over Cunego x Evans over Basso @ $2.25
8 units Sastre top 3 @ $2.20

Points Classification

8 units Greipel @ $3.50
6 units Greipel over Petacchi @ $1.66
3.5 units Henderson over Bonnet @ $2

Mountains Classification

.5 units Possoni @ $101
.5 units Cunego @ $41
.5 units Simoni @ $19
1 unit Moncoutie @ $8

Teams Classification

3 units Liqugias @ $3.50
5 units Liquigas over Caisse d'Epargne @ $1.71

To Win A Stage

6 units McEwen not to win a stage @ $1.57
2 units Simoni to win a stage @ $3.20

That will do me for the overall. I've nearly halved my current bankroll with these bets. So I'm hinting at not too many stage bets. Note, this takes into account Stage 1 too.



 
Captain
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Posted: #6
Stage 1

3 units Henderson over Farrar @ $2.30
3 units Millar over Wiggins @ $2
3 units Voss over Tondo @ $1.83

2 units Millar to win @ $4


 
Captain
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Posted: #7
2 units Millar over Vino @ $2.10
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
3 units Serpa over Bertolini @ $1.50
3 units Flens over Konovalovas @ $1.85
3.5 units Porte over Konovalovas @ $1.50

Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
2.8 units Schar over Morkov @ $2.38
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
And then that's a further 3.5 units on Schar @ $2.
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
3 units Henderson over Farrar @ $2.30
3 units Millar over Wiggins @ $2
3 units Voss over Tondo @ $1.83
2 units Millar over Vino @ $2.10
3 units Serpa over Bertolini @ $1.50
3 units Flens over Konovalovas @ $1.85
3.5 units Porte over Konovalovas @ $1.50
2.8 units Schar over Morkov @ $2.38
4 units Schar over Morkov @ $2

2 units Millar to win @ $4

I'm nearly at half my bankroll. This is going to be an epic disaster or a masterstroke. Let's see what happens.

If these stage bets don't work out tonight, I probably won't be doing much in the way of stage betting and just sit and wait for those overalls to cash.

 
Captain
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Posted: #12
.5 units Karpets top 3 @ $21
.5 units Karpets to win @ $81

Good luck!

 
Captain
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Posted: #13
2.5 units Karpets over Meyer @ $2
2.5 units Henderson over Elijzen @ $1.75
 
Rookie
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Posted: #14
just asking - why Millar against Wiggins and Millar against Vinokurov?
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
Wiggins is not in form.

Adding 5 units Larsson to win the stage @ $2.80

It's started to rain heavy. Got on this just in time.
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
Can't believe what they just had up.

8 unit Vinokourov over Greipel @ $1.35
 
Rookie
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Posted: #17
what bookie are you using?
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
Bet365 - it went into 1.25 then it went off.

There is this one though

3.5 units Bonnet over Greipel @ $2.20 - Greipel is sick. Been in bed. He will come near last.
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Make that another 2.5 units on Bonnet
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
5 units Garzelli over Greipel @ $1.85

Stop handing out gifts Bet365, Greipel is sick. Shouldn't finish in the top 100.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #21
wow Wiggins looks so good, like a winner
 
Captain
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Posted: #22
4 units Wiggins to win @ $1.80
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
Well stage 1 didn't go too well.

If stage 2 doesn't work out, I'll wait till the team time trial, then wait till the mountains and just sit on these overalls.


1 unit Henderson @ $17
4 units Henderson top 3 @ $4.50

4 units Henderson over McEwen @ $1.85
4 units Henderson over Modolo @ $1.73

3 units Greipel over Petacchi @ $1.85

Based on Greipel's performance yesterday, he's not as sick as what everyone is making out. I do not want to touch those odds on him so have gone with Henderson.

Sky are in pink. If Greipel wins tonight and Henderson doesn't come top three, they will lose the pink jersey. So as usual they should be controlling the stage but should have enough to get the train going at the end.
 
Captain
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Posted: #24
3 units Duque over Haedo @ $1.75
 
 
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Posted: #25
4 units Ravard to finish 10th or worse @ $1.55
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