Not 100% about this match as there is a lot of changes. Victoria welcome back captain White and paceman Siddle. However, the Vics are missing their best batsmen in Hodge (injury), and also the overrated Hussey (national duties). Victoria have omitted Blizzard and their form bowler Nannes is being rested from this match. Hodge will be a huge loss to the Victorian top order, he has made 264 at 52.80 so far this season at a strike rate of 94.62. Hussey is also important to the Vics, he has made 199 at an average of 66.33 and it was his innings of 66 that helped guide the Bushrangers past WA. Victoria's bowling attack has depth, so they shouldn't be too disadvantaged by resting Nannes who took 2 for 34 against WA and has taken 6 wickets at an economy rate of 5.23 so far this season.
I assume South Australia will be without Ferguson who has been in form this season and consequently selected for national duties. In seven one-dayers he has 302 runs at 43.14, with one century and two 50s. He sits ninth on the one-day batting aggregate and only David Warner has a better strike rate than his 103.78 among players in the top 10. In SA's three wins this season he has made 46 (49), 52 (35) and 51 (57) respectively. Not to mention, he just made 81 and 155 in the Shield match between the two states (a close match which Victoria took thanks to some good bowling from McGain on the final afternoon).
Victoria have been successful in all forms of the game this season, and their record in the FRC this season is 5 – 1 with the Redbacks standing at 3 – 4. The last time these two teams played in the FRC was October '08 in Adelaide, the Bushrangers won by 8 wickets with 41 balls remaining. However, Hodge was available for that match and scored an unbeaten 102 (106) and with assistance from Hussey (unbeaten 26 off 30) the Victorians chased down a modest target. Both teams come into the match off a one-day win, SA having beaten Tasmania and Victoria got past WA.
It is the SA bowling attack that seems lacking, I'm not really a fan of Tait, but he has been instrumental in 2 of SA's wins this season taking 5 for 27 and 2 for 40 on each occasion the Redbacks beat NSW. He has taken 12 wickets overall at an economy rate of 4.98. With Tait missing from this match, SA will need to rely upon Cleary and Christian to limit the Bushrangers batting.
I'll be waiting closer to the toss and seeking out further insight, but at this stage Victoria ML will be the play.
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