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Melbourne Cup

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Any picks and why?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
It looks like being one of the weakest Cup fields since pre-Vintage Crop. The only real group horses are not on the Cups campaign. Seriously if you like something back it in.
 
My tip at this stage is:
 
Maldivian - lightly raced 5yo by Zabeel (15 starts: 6 wins 7 placings) trained by Mark Kavanagh who could have 3 in the Caulfield Cup. Ran 2nd in the Bletchingly (Zipping won last year before 4th in the Melb Cup) and then brained them (4.5 lengths) at the Valley last Fri night. No. 57 (51.5kg) ballot in the Melb Cup before 1kg penalty and more than half above him won't start in the Cup. Recent market moves: 50/1 into 20-25/1.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Latest Market
Efficient $6 - Zabeel (NZ) by Refused The Dance (NZ)
Miss Finland $9 - Redoute's Choice (AUS) by Forest Pearl (USA)
Maybe Better $10 - Intergaze (AUS) by Amarula (AUS)
Zipping $11-$15 - Danehill (USA) by Social Scene (IRE)
Master O'Reilly $13 - O'Reilly (NZ) by Without Remorse (NZ)
Eskimo Queen $15 - Shinko King (IRE) by Cold Type (NZ)
Purple Moon $15 - Galileo (IRE) by Vanishing Pride
Scorpion $17 - Montjeu by Ardmelody
Mahler $21 - Galileo (IRE) by Rainbow Goddess (GB)
Maldivian $21-$26 - Zabeel (NZ) by Shynzi (USA)
Black Tom $26-$34 - Langfuhr (CAN) by Narmada (USA)
Blutigeroo $26-$34 - Encounter (AUS) by Shanghai Sky (AUS)
Leica Falcon $31-$34 - Nothin' Leica Dane (AUS) by Lady Peregrine (USA)
Tawqueet $31-$34 - Kingmambo (USA) by Caerless (IRE)
Gallic $34 - Zabeel (NZ) by Gesine (NZ)
Sirmione $34 - Encosta De Lago (AUS) by World Guide (NZ)
Blue Monday $41 - Darshaan (GB) by Lunda (IRE)
Lazer Sharp $41 - Zariz (USA) by Scadabba (AUS)
 
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Posted: #4
At this stage ive back Miss Finland for the cox/cup double at 50/1. Im looking at purple moon and scorpion and master o'reilly as other bets in the near future. With this being such a weak cup im sure the overseas horses have a great chance of winning this year but only if finland doesnt start. I really think finland walks the cup in if she starts. Big comment I know, but thats just how I feel.
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Horse racing
 
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Posted: #6
Douro Valley last couple have been excellent. Looking at the form over the last 12 months there has been nothing much between Douro Valley, Maldivian and Master O"Reilly.
 
Eskimo Queen was disappointing on the weekend, but the way Flemington played you may never know what was going on.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 35
Posted: #7
Latest Market
Efficient $6 out to $7.5-$8 - Zabeel (NZ) by Refused The Dance (NZ)
Miss Finland $9 into $7-$8 - Redoute's Choice (AUS) by Forest Pearl (USA)
Maybe Better $10 - Intergaze (AUS) by Amarula (AUS)
Zipping $11-$15 into $8-$11 - Danehill (USA) by Social Scene (IRE)
Master O'Reilly $13 - O'Reilly (NZ) by Without Remorse (NZ)
Eskimo Queen $15 out to $16-$17 - Shinko King (IRE) by Cold Type (NZ)
Purple Moon $15 - Galileo (IRE) by Vanishing Pride
Scorpion $17 - Montjeu by Ardmelody
Mahler $21 - Galileo (IRE) by Rainbow Goddess (GB)
Maldivian $21-$26 into $17-$21 - Zabeel (NZ) by Shynzi (USA)
Black Tom $26-$34 out to $41 - Langfuhr (CAN) by Narmada (USA)
Blutigeroo $26-$34 - Encounter (AUS) by Shanghai Sky (AUS)
Leica Falcon $31-$34 out to $41-$51 - Nothin' Leica Dane (AUS) by Lady Peregrine (USA)
Tawqueet $31-$34 out to $51-$61 - Kingmambo (USA) by Caerless (IRE)
Gallic $34 out to $41 - Zabeel (NZ) by Gesine (NZ)
Sirmione $34 out to $51-$61 - Encosta De Lago (AUS) by World Guide (NZ)
Blue Monday $41 - Darshaan (GB) by Lunda (IRE)
Lazer Sharp $41 out to $51 - Zariz (USA) by Scadabba (AUS)
 
Firming (or steady)
Douro Valley $51 into $21-$26 - Encosta De Lago (AUS) by Opaque (NZ)
Tungsten Strike $41 - Smart Strike (CAN) by Bathilde (IRE)
Princess Coup $51 into $21-$26 - Encosta De Lago (AUS) by Stoneyfell Road (AUS)
Dolphin Jo $67 into $26 - Dolphin Street (FR) by High Rent (AUS)
 
 
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Posted: #8
Can horses by Redoutes Choice, O'Reilly or Encosta run 2 miles? It may be a weak Cup this year, but 2 miles is 2 miles
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by SecondAgain:

Can horses by Redoutes Choice, O'Reilly or Encosta run 2 miles? It may be a weak Cup this year, but 2 miles is 2 miles

I can't be certain of this but my research suggests the following:

Redoute's Choice - best distance performers are Miss Finland, winner of VRC Oaks (2500m), Redoute's Dancer, winner of NZ Derby (2400m) and Empires Choice, winner of QLD Derby (2400m). Redoute's Choice is by Danehill whose progency have won most high class races in Australia, except the Melbourne Cup. The closest was Nothin' Leica Dane who was second in 1995. But remember this, the great Champion and triple Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva is by Desert King, a son of Danehill.

Encosta De Lago - best distance performers are Our Smoking Joe, winner of VRC Queen Elizabeth (2500m), Dream The Dream, winner of SA Oaks (2500m), Princess Coup, winner of NZ Oaks (2400m) and Newport, winner of Brisbane Cup (2400m). Encosta De Lago is by Fairy King (full brother to Sadler's Wells) and whose progency include Falbrav (World Champion racehorse in 2003, won Japan Cup) and Helissio (Champion 3yo in Eurpoe, won Arc de Triomphe). Fairy King is by Northern Dancer who is probably the biggest single influence on the breeding world.

O'Reilly (NZ) - jury is out. Has

 
Prospect
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Posted: #10

O'Reilly (NZ) - jury is out. Has continously performed in the top echelon of stallions in Hong Kong with wins from 1000m to 2400m. O'Reilly (NZ) is by Last Tycoon who also sired 2004 Australian Horse of the Year Mahogany.

 
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Posted: #11
It's hard to line up 3yo Classic form as staying form. Many of them are run at a lesser then average tempo, and the one with the best sprint wins. Those run on wet tracks generally won by the best and classiest stayer. Miss Finland is brilliant, but the wet tracks showed her up over a distance in Sydney. Her win in the VRC Oaks over Tuesday Joy was just a case of out sprinting her rival. She does have the Northern Dancer/Mr Prospector cross, and a bit of Kriss. Her grand-dam (Moonshell) won and English Oaks, and Moonshell's dam Moon Cactus was second in the French Oaks. So she does have some stoutness on her dams side. I think she is a query at the distance, but the Cox Plate is hers to lose. I don't think there is a WFA horse at present who will beat her on the day, nor is there a 3yo
 
In my opinion. the later 3yo races (ie Qld) are better form guides for the Cups. Just look at Ethereal, Artic Scent, Paris Lane, Yippiyio, Lachlan River (4th in a MC) to see this.
 
I wasn't living in the country at the time, but was Champagne by Danehill? I have seen the replay of nearly every CC & MC and she was one you wanted your money on half way down the straight, but couldn't stay. There are few exceptions to Danehill progeny in Australia staying (Nothin' Leica Dane, Elvtroem, come to mind), but most after their 3yo year become milers, being pushed to 2000m on class.
 
Desert King maybe a son of Danehill, but so are Desert Prince, Flying Spur, Lion Hunter and others. I will never back any of their progeny over 2 miles. Despite the international pedigree of a lot of these horses, Australian stocks are full of mares bred to be sprinter/milers. So no matter who the sire is, very few have any stoutness on the dams side. Remember Makybe Diva was bred in Europe.
 
Encosta is a real query over a distance as well. He sired Our Smoking Joe, Lashed and Princess Coup. Lashed won a few 2000m G1 races, but they were in NZ.  Princess Coup is a strange won. She is out of a Sovereign Red mare, who won a few races over 1200m Our Smoking Joe was out of a Blazing Sword mare. Most of the other well performed Encosta's are sprinter-milers, like Alinghi, Titanic Jack, Racing to Win, Mnemosyne, Delargo Brom.
 
I have nothing bad to say about O'Reilly as I part-own an O'Rielly 3yo.
 
it just seems that those who are in the market are all queries at the trip. That just leaves us with the Zabeels (Efficient and Maldivian). I do no think Maldivian can run 2 miles, but is a real show in the CC. A high cruising speed in a fast run race.
 
I think I'll stick with Eskimo Queen for the CC (got $26) and Maldivian is no value. Melbourne Cup is way too hard at this stage.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
Great write up Second.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Only 56 left in the field.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
Latest Market
Efficient $6 out to $7.5-$8 - Zabeel (NZ) by Refused The Dance (NZ)
Miss Finland $9 into $7-$8 - Redoute's Choice (AUS) by Forest Pearl (USA)
Maybe Better $10 into $7.5-$8- Intergaze (AUS) by Amarula (AUS) $12 for Caul Cup
Zipping $11-$15 into $8-$11 steady at $11- Danehill (USA) by Social Scene (IRE)
Master O'Reilly $13 into $8 - O'Reilly (NZ) by Without Remorse (NZ) $11 for Caul Cup
Eskimo Queen $15 out to $16-$17 - Shinko King (IRE) by Cold Type (NZ) $8.5 for Caul Cup
Purple Moon $15 - Galileo (IRE) by Vanishing Pride $31 for Caul Cup
Scorpion $17 - Montjeu by Ardmelody
Mahler $21 - Galileo (IRE) by Rainbow Goddess (GB)
Maldivian $21-$26 into $17-$21 into $13 - Zabeel (NZ) by Shynzi (USA) $2.5 for Caul Cup
Black Tom $26-$34 out to $41 out to $51 - Langfuhr (CAN) by Narmada (USA) $151 for Caul Cup
Blutigeroo $26-$34 out to $34-$36 - Encounter (AUS) by Shanghai Sky (AUS) $31 for Caul Cup
Leica Falcon $31-$34 out to $41-$51 out to $51-$61 - Nothin' Leica Dane (AUS) by Lady Peregrine (USA)
Tawqueet $31-$34 out to $51-$61 - Kingmambo (USA) by Caerless (IRE) $51 for Caul Cup
Gallic $34 out to $41 - Zabeel (NZ) by Gesine (NZ)
Sirmione $34 out to $51-$61 out to $61-$71 - Encosta De Lago (AUS) by World Guide (NZ) $101 for Caul Cup
Blue Monday $41 into $31-$34 - Darshaan (GB) by Lunda (IRE) $41 for Caul Cup
Lazer Sharp $41 out to $51 out to $71-$81 - Zariz (USA) by Scadabba (AUS)
 
Firming (or steady)
Douro Valley $51 into $21-$26 - Encosta De Lago (AUS) by Opaque (NZ) $13 for Caul Cup
Tungsten Strike $41 into $34-$41 - Smart Strike (CAN) by Bathilde (IRE)
Princess Coup $51 into $21-$26 out to $31-$34 - Encosta De Lago (AUS) by Stoneyfell Road (AUS) $17 for Caul Cup
Dolphin Jo $67 into $26 out to $34-$36 - Dolphin Street (FR) by High Rent (AUS)
 
Hall of Fame
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Posts: 25922
Posted: #15
Caulfield Cup

 12345678910
TAWQEET (USA) No
BLUE MONDAY (GB) No
BLUTIGEROO No, but can sneak a place
RAILINGS No way
MAYBE BETTER Would like to see a bit of rain
BLACK TOM Peter Hall is not riding a Caulfield Cup winner
PURPLE MOON (IRE) ???
MALDIVIAN (NZ) Unders, but the one to beat. I still question is ability to stay
CINQUE CENTO No
MANDELA (NZ) Gay deceiver, but a half decent run will see me backing him for a place in the big one


 
 
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Posted: #16
SCENIC SHOTANNENKOV (IRE)ANAMATODOURO VALLEYSIRMIONEESKIMO QUEEN (NZ)PRINCESS COUPMASTER O'REILLY (NZ)SARRERAMOLOTOV
Similar form to Douro Valley, but a better price
Place show
3rd up over mile and a half? No
Had a chance until J.Winks was booked
S Murphy? See P.Hall above
Big show
NZ mare first time in Aust. Nope
See Sirmione
No
No
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