I believe Laughton is out again and the Cedar who gets minutes is out for townsville. Robbins has had the flu during the week.
Perth are 5-1 at home but i don't think this is as impressive as it sounds. Victories against Singapore, Adelaide and Wollongong are nothing to get too excited about and they caught Cairns early when they were coming to terms with injuries and Melbourne when they were in a funk. That said you can only beat who shows up.
Laughton played injured in the match two weeks ago and was ineffective, which Townsville won 97-93.
Homicide had a poor shooting night going 2 from 11 in the previous match. After a poor shooting match against Melbourne he bounced back with 31 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals in the rematch. I think the chances are he will have a much better game.
Townsville have won 7 out of 8 and with Laughton out I like their chances to at least keep this close.
Melbourne -5.5 1u
Souths v Melbourne over 200.5 1u
I was keen to take Souths earlier in the week before Muursepp got the boot. Melbourne had a massive rebounding against Perth but the game was tied with minutes to go. However, i feel the change of import may give them a new lease of life. Even if it doesn't Muursepp was such an anchor in several recent games I think it will feel like they are going from playing 4 on 6 to 5 on 5. A bit harsh but in his last game he was 1/8 for 2 points with 2 turnovers and 3 fouls.
The NBL site preview written earlier in the week suggested Dave Thomas was a chance to play, but there was no talk of this at the pregame lunch yesterday.
Heal has been making vague threats that players may be sacked if there is not an improvement in this game, with suggestions Cortez and Hendrix may be asked to leave. Cortez looks pretty disinterested most of the time to me and that getting sacked would be fine with him.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 67-47 +17.9u
Townsville +6 2u
Perth v Townsville under 194.5 1u
I believe Laughton is out again and the Cedar who gets minutes is out for townsville. Robbins has had the flu during the week.
Perth are 5-1 at home but i don't think this is as impressive as it sounds. Victories against Singapore, Adelaide and Wollongong are nothing to get too excited about and they caught Cairns early when they were coming to terms with injuries and Melbourne when they were in a funk. That said you can only beat who shows up.
Laughton played injured in the match two weeks ago and was ineffective, which Townsville won 97-93.
Homicide had a poor shooting night going 2 from 11 in the previous match. After a poor shooting match against Melbourne he bounced back with 31 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals in the rematch. I think the chances are he will have a much better game.
Townsville have won 7 out of 8 and with Laughton out I like their chances to at least keep this close.
Melbourne -5.5 1u
Souths v Melbourne over 200.5 1u
I was keen to take Souths earlier in the week before Muursepp got the boot. Melbourne had a massive rebounding against Perth but the game was tied with minutes to go. However, i feel the change of import may give them a new lease of life. Even if it doesn't Muursepp was such an anchor in several recent games I think it will feel like they are going from playing 4 on 6 to 5 on 5. A bit harsh but in his last game he was 1/8 for 2 points with 2 turnovers and 3 fouls.
The NBL site preview written earlier in the week suggested Dave Thomas was a chance to play, but there was no talk of this at the pregame lunch yesterday.
Heal has been making vague threats that players may be sacked if there is not an improvement in this game, with suggestions Cortez and Hendrix may be asked to leave. Cortez looks pretty disinterested most of the time to me and that getting sacked would be fine with him.
I believe Tigers new import will play a bit and have read elsewhere that Dave Thomas will play a few minutes but still not sure about this.
Adelaide v Singapore over 206.5 1u
In a lot of SIngapore games either they don't show up to play or the opposition takes them lightly and doesn't so i think it is dificult to take a side.
I think both sides will be keen to run around and put up some points.
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I believe Tigers new import will play a bit and have read elsewhere that Dave Thomas will play a few minutes but still not sure about this.
Adelaide v Singapore over 206.5 1u
In a lot of SIngapore games either they don't show up to play or the opposition takes them lightly and doesn't so i think it is dificult to take a side.
I think both sides will be keen to run around and put up some points.
Also, with the Melbourne game, like a lot of games that involve the top 2 sides (Syd, Melb) the line seems devalued a lot of the time.
Correct me if I'm wrong and exclude Melb since DT has been out, or more specific since they were in a slump but take, for example, and there have been several examples, the Kings/Breakers game a couple of weeks ago. Kings in great form, Breakers (yes home court) missing imports, Penny in good form... but all in all Kings only giving up 6 points to cover, they won by approx 15.
Now take tonights Melb game, and there are some comparisons. Yes the Melb derby is gererally close, DT still out (most likely), Melb haven't been as dominant as Syd but... and yes, finally back to my original point, the line seems devalued, why? With all other sports, example NBA the fav is generally overvalued?
Anyway value your write ups, thanks
Excuse if its not the most concise post but its my birthday, few beers and all
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Also, with the Melbourne game, like a lot of games that involve the top 2 sides (Syd, Melb) the line seems devalued a lot of the time.
Correct me if I'm wrong and exclude Melb since DT has been out, or more specific since they were in a slump but take, for example, and there have been several examples, the Kings/Breakers game a couple of weeks ago. Kings in great form, Breakers (yes home court) missing imports, Penny in good form... but all in all Kings only giving up 6 points to cover, they won by approx 15.
Now take tonights Melb game, and there are some comparisons. Yes the Melb derby is gererally close, DT still out (most likely), Melb haven't been as dominant as Syd but... and yes, finally back to my original point, the line seems devalued, why? With all other sports, example NBA the fav is generally overvalued?
Anyway value your write ups, thanks
Excuse if its not the most concise post but its my birthday, few beers and all
Wow just placed a wager @ Pinny on the OVER 202 in the Dragons v Tigers game at -105. Logged back in straight away to place more money on it and and it's now 202 -122.
Must be all of a few hundred in the pool.
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Wow just placed a wager @ Pinny on the OVER 202 in the Dragons v Tigers game at -105. Logged back in straight away to place more money on it and and it's now 202 -122.
Also, with the Melbourne game, like a lot of games that involve the top 2 sides (Syd, Melb) the line seems devalued a lot of the time.
Correct me if I'm wrong and exclude Melb since DT has been out, or more specific since they were in a slump but take, for example, and there have been several examples, the Kings/Breakers game a couple of weeks ago. Kings in great form, Breakers (yes home court) missing imports, Penny in good form... but all in all Kings only giving up 6 points to cover, they won by approx 15.
Now take tonights Melb game, and there are some comparisons. Yes the Melb derby is gererally close, DT still out (most likely), Melb haven't been as dominant as Syd but... and yes, finally back to my original point, the line seems devalued, why? With all other sports, example NBA the fav is generally overvalued?
Anyway value your write ups, thanks
Excuse if its not the most concise post but its my birthday, few beers and all
Happy Birthday mate lets hope tonight is a winning one for you.
I have also noticed this and trend of undervalued favorites in the NBL ,but you wont hear me complaining .
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Quote Originally Posted by tozer:
Also, with the Melbourne game, like a lot of games that involve the top 2 sides (Syd, Melb) the line seems devalued a lot of the time.
Correct me if I'm wrong and exclude Melb since DT has been out, or more specific since they were in a slump but take, for example, and there have been several examples, the Kings/Breakers game a couple of weeks ago. Kings in great form, Breakers (yes home court) missing imports, Penny in good form... but all in all Kings only giving up 6 points to cover, they won by approx 15.
Now take tonights Melb game, and there are some comparisons. Yes the Melb derby is gererally close, DT still out (most likely), Melb haven't been as dominant as Syd but... and yes, finally back to my original point, the line seems devalued, why? With all other sports, example NBA the fav is generally overvalued?
Anyway value your write ups, thanks
Excuse if its not the most concise post but its my birthday, few beers and all
Happy Birthday mate lets hope tonight is a winning one for you.
I have also noticed this and trend of undervalued favorites in the NBL ,but you wont hear me complaining .
i agree with you on sydney, i have them covering 13 of 17 and 6 of their last 8 covers have have been more than double digits against the spread.
i am not sold on melbourne yet though. in my opinion their early schedule when they had their winning streak was very soft - weak teams, new teams and teams missing players. in recent weeks against better opposition they have been found wanting. sure this was partly missing DT and partly carrying the lead weight muursepp (with hindsight the question is why al westover just didn't play hoare, stiff and blondy whos name escapes me at the moment, more) but my guess is that they may not be as strong as sydney and brisbane and maybe even gold coast and cairns. time will tell.
i like them in this spot though
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happy birthday tozer, hope you enjoy it.
i agree with you on sydney, i have them covering 13 of 17 and 6 of their last 8 covers have have been more than double digits against the spread.
i am not sold on melbourne yet though. in my opinion their early schedule when they had their winning streak was very soft - weak teams, new teams and teams missing players. in recent weeks against better opposition they have been found wanting. sure this was partly missing DT and partly carrying the lead weight muursepp (with hindsight the question is why al westover just didn't play hoare, stiff and blondy whos name escapes me at the moment, more) but my guess is that they may not be as strong as sydney and brisbane and maybe even gold coast and cairns. time will tell.
after seeing showme's bet i went and had a look at global at the player match ups and found one i like - most points:
David Barlow (Melbourne)
2.48
-->
Joe Ingles (South Dragons)
2.75
-->
Cortez Groves (South Dragons)
3.15
took joe ingles for half a unit. cortez has been in poor form generally and if the new guy plays he will likely take some of blondy's minutes. ingles has played well in recent games and would have been in the running for mvp in the allstar game.
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after seeing showme's bet i went and had a look at global at the player match ups and found one i like - most points:
David Barlow (Melbourne)
2.48
-->
Joe Ingles (South Dragons)
2.75
-->
Cortez Groves (South Dragons)
3.15
took joe ingles for half a unit. cortez has been in poor form generally and if the new guy plays he will likely take some of blondy's minutes. ingles has played well in recent games and would have been in the running for mvp in the allstar game.
Bit of luck last night with Townsville scoring 7 points in the first 11.56 of the last quarter and looking like blowing the cover until they hit a 3 with 3 seconds to go.
Sydney v Wollongong under 194.5
Think this is a bit high, plus I think Wollongong may try given their financial situation. Some teams would give up but i think wollongong are more likely to play hard. Think there is a possibility that Sydney may not try and crush them also, not alot to be gained by embarassing wollongong here.
Brisbane v NZ over 214.5 2u
Put this on yesterday but am keen to buy back one if not two units, especially if the total keeps going up. Don't think there is value in the 217.5 to 219.5 currently on offer.
May have a bet in the Cairns game if i can work out if the new guy is playing. Supposedely Cairns put out a press release saying he is cleared to play, but i have since read that there is one more paperwork hurdle. If anyone has any info I would be keen to hear it.
0
YTD: 70-50 +19.0u
Bit of luck last night with Townsville scoring 7 points in the first 11.56 of the last quarter and looking like blowing the cover until they hit a 3 with 3 seconds to go.
Sydney v Wollongong under 194.5
Think this is a bit high, plus I think Wollongong may try given their financial situation. Some teams would give up but i think wollongong are more likely to play hard. Think there is a possibility that Sydney may not try and crush them also, not alot to be gained by embarassing wollongong here.
Brisbane v NZ over 214.5 2u
Put this on yesterday but am keen to buy back one if not two units, especially if the total keeps going up. Don't think there is value in the 217.5 to 219.5 currently on offer.
May have a bet in the Cairns game if i can work out if the new guy is playing. Supposedely Cairns put out a press release saying he is cleared to play, but i have since read that there is one more paperwork hurdle. If anyone has any info I would be keen to hear it.
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