Decided to play both away teams tonight pretty much on not much more than a new years grinch platform.
Gold Coast +6 1u
Gold Coast shoot a higher percentage of their field goals as 3 pointers than any other team. By my calcs they have shot 45% from behind the arc in their last five games. Basically they live and die by the three, which is not unreasonanle given most of their squad can shoot from long distance.
I jumped on the townsville bandwagon a few weeks ago and they have been fairly ordinairy since, only covering one of their last 6. The numbers suggest their defence has dropped off as has their offence.
I think 6 is a couple two many points here, particulaly after townsville's performance in wollongong.
Brisbane -1.5 1u
Brisbane's away form has been poor but Cairns form has been flaky in general. I think Brisbane will be keen to get revenge for the 22 point pasting they got last time they visited and i like their chances of getting the job done, if they keep jawai from running rampant.
Someone on ozhoops was saying they heard a rumour this is jawai's last game as he is heading OS.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 84-60 +23.2u
Decided to play both away teams tonight pretty much on not much more than a new years grinch platform.
Gold Coast +6 1u
Gold Coast shoot a higher percentage of their field goals as 3 pointers than any other team. By my calcs they have shot 45% from behind the arc in their last five games. Basically they live and die by the three, which is not unreasonanle given most of their squad can shoot from long distance.
I jumped on the townsville bandwagon a few weeks ago and they have been fairly ordinairy since, only covering one of their last 6. The numbers suggest their defence has dropped off as has their offence.
I think 6 is a couple two many points here, particulaly after townsville's performance in wollongong.
Brisbane -1.5 1u
Brisbane's away form has been poor but Cairns form has been flaky in general. I think Brisbane will be keen to get revenge for the 22 point pasting they got last time they visited and i like their chances of getting the job done, if they keep jawai from running rampant.
Someone on ozhoops was saying they heard a rumour this is jawai's last game as he is heading OS.
Its been said the Brisbane match may be hard to predict, and may be. I really see Brisbane still missing Mackinnon, somebody I grew up with (although as I'm writing it I fail to see the relevence in saying this) still has too much class and getting closer to the playoffs,will continue to get better and better, as the top three teams show their dominace over the rest of the competition. I think this is a generous line for Brisbane aat this time of year and will be taking the -2, irrelevent of Cairns' starters.
Thanks for your input Binomial
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Its been said the Brisbane match may be hard to predict, and may be. I really see Brisbane still missing Mackinnon, somebody I grew up with (although as I'm writing it I fail to see the relevence in saying this) still has too much class and getting closer to the playoffs,will continue to get better and better, as the top three teams show their dominace over the rest of the competition. I think this is a generous line for Brisbane aat this time of year and will be taking the -2, irrelevent of Cairns' starters.
Melbourne are getting it together. In Perth Lampley contributed quality numbers, Dave Thomas produced in limited minutes and Corletto hit 4/4 3s taking their offence to another level and getting 107 on the usually stingy Perth defence.
That said I think this number should be something like 8 not 12. GC has not done too much wrong. They have won 11 of their last 15, with two of the losses being to Brisbane in Brisbane.
It is the third game in 5 days for GC, but it is the third in 7 days for Melbourne, includng a trip to Perth so I don't think this will be a huge factor.
Both offences are generally improving so I think it might go over.
Singapore +7 1.5u
By my numbers this should be close to pickem.
Perth are 2/6 on the road, although they are the only team to beat Sydney at the kingdome.
Having taken Brisbane to beat Cairns somewhat based on the revenge factor, today i am adopting the history repeats idea, wishing that i had the other night also.
Singapore has a tendancy to overachieve versus the top teams and underachieve against the teams outside the 8. In the past four home games they have beaten Perth and Brisbane but been smashed by Adelaide and West Sydney. Against the spread in their last 15 games I have them covering 7 of 9 against teams currently in the top 8, and 1 of 6 against teams outside the top 8.
I suspect a significant factor in this is the top teams taking them lightly and Perth are unlikely to do this after losing on their previous visit.
According to the NBL match reports Singapore had 4,000 fans at their game v West Sydney and 3,000 versus Brisbane, which is close to as many as any team gets give or take a few. I would expect this should increase what is already a solid home court advantage due to the travel. Hopefully it also means they will be an ongoing concern in future years.
I'm betting the overachievers show up tonight.
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YTD: 85-61 +23.1u
Gold Coast +12 2u
Melbourne v Gold Coast over 190.5 1u
Melbourne are getting it together. In Perth Lampley contributed quality numbers, Dave Thomas produced in limited minutes and Corletto hit 4/4 3s taking their offence to another level and getting 107 on the usually stingy Perth defence.
That said I think this number should be something like 8 not 12. GC has not done too much wrong. They have won 11 of their last 15, with two of the losses being to Brisbane in Brisbane.
It is the third game in 5 days for GC, but it is the third in 7 days for Melbourne, includng a trip to Perth so I don't think this will be a huge factor.
Both offences are generally improving so I think it might go over.
Singapore +7 1.5u
By my numbers this should be close to pickem.
Perth are 2/6 on the road, although they are the only team to beat Sydney at the kingdome.
Having taken Brisbane to beat Cairns somewhat based on the revenge factor, today i am adopting the history repeats idea, wishing that i had the other night also.
Singapore has a tendancy to overachieve versus the top teams and underachieve against the teams outside the 8. In the past four home games they have beaten Perth and Brisbane but been smashed by Adelaide and West Sydney. Against the spread in their last 15 games I have them covering 7 of 9 against teams currently in the top 8, and 1 of 6 against teams outside the top 8.
I suspect a significant factor in this is the top teams taking them lightly and Perth are unlikely to do this after losing on their previous visit.
According to the NBL match reports Singapore had 4,000 fans at their game v West Sydney and 3,000 versus Brisbane, which is close to as many as any team gets give or take a few. I would expect this should increase what is already a solid home court advantage due to the travel. Hopefully it also means they will be an ongoing concern in future years.
ademouse i like your point about the layoff i hadn't given that alot of thought.
initially i was leaning to the over, then i realised the previous game was overtime, so after adjusting was thinking the total was about right. then another factor i was thinking is that off a loss to melbourne and having lost to singapore last time perth are likely to bring their best defence which means the total could end up as low as 150 but something in the 180s would be my expectation.
Your question has put me on the under. Adding:
Singapore v Perth under 195.5 1u
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thanks ecoute same to you.
ademouse i like your point about the layoff i hadn't given that alot of thought.
initially i was leaning to the over, then i realised the previous game was overtime, so after adjusting was thinking the total was about right. then another factor i was thinking is that off a loss to melbourne and having lost to singapore last time perth are likely to bring their best defence which means the total could end up as low as 150 but something in the 180s would be my expectation.
The more I think about it, the more I like Perth-6.5. Haven't pulled the trigger yet these are my random thoughts:
1.Cats (in 6th spot) looking to consolidate a spot in the top 4 for as they want HC advantage.
2.Slingers are last on the ladder, they're just playing for pride and perhaps to secure a spot on the roster for next season. If push comes to shove or say the game is on the line, who is more likely to want it more? I'd say perth cause they have more to play for....Stingers are underdogs and losing is not so much of a shock since it is normal to expect the better team to win.
3.Cats looking for revenge and are coming off a loss to theTigers....sets up a good situational spot here. Cats know that if they are to have hopes of winning the title, this is the type of game that are expected to win. Cats have a big advantage on the glass and have the better roster all around.
4.Stingers have a habit of falling behind in games (see last 2 on the road) by double digits at HT...kinda lull their opponents into a false sense of confidence & snuck back into the game by surprise. Cats would not be so generous if this happens again tonite.
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The more I think about it, the more I like Perth-6.5. Haven't pulled the trigger yet these are my random thoughts:
1.Cats (in 6th spot) looking to consolidate a spot in the top 4 for as they want HC advantage.
2.Slingers are last on the ladder, they're just playing for pride and perhaps to secure a spot on the roster for next season. If push comes to shove or say the game is on the line, who is more likely to want it more? I'd say perth cause they have more to play for....Stingers are underdogs and losing is not so much of a shock since it is normal to expect the better team to win.
3.Cats looking for revenge and are coming off a loss to theTigers....sets up a good situational spot here. Cats know that if they are to have hopes of winning the title, this is the type of game that are expected to win. Cats have a big advantage on the glass and have the better roster all around.
4.Stingers have a habit of falling behind in games (see last 2 on the road) by double digits at HT...kinda lull their opponents into a false sense of confidence & snuck back into the game by surprise. Cats would not be so generous if this happens again tonite.
Dplay one thing i have been thinking of late is that when i use motivation or revenge as factors they are not my best picks.
Why did Singapore cover their last two road games? you could argue they had less motivation on the road than they do at home. If perth are so motivated for top 4 why did they blow a big lead against melbourne? why are wollongong playing better when they have no chance to make the finals?
People seem to like perth so i could be on the wrong side here. But my point is that most people want lots of stuff but aren't necessary capable of gittnem.
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Dplay one thing i have been thinking of late is that when i use motivation or revenge as factors they are not my best picks.
Why did Singapore cover their last two road games? you could argue they had less motivation on the road than they do at home. If perth are so motivated for top 4 why did they blow a big lead against melbourne? why are wollongong playing better when they have no chance to make the finals?
People seem to like perth so i could be on the wrong side here. But my point is that most people want lots of stuff but aren't necessary capable of gittnem.
Dplay one thing i have been thinking of late is that when i use motivation or revenge as factors they are not my best picks.
Why did Singapore cover their last two road games? you could argue they had less motivation on the road than they do at home. If perth are so motivated for top 4 why did they blow a big lead against melbourne? why are wollongong playing better when they have no chance to make the finals?
People seem to like perth so i could be on the wrong side here. But my point is that most people want lots of stuff but aren't necessary capable of gittnem.
I can see where you're coming from.....in this case I also like the match ups and Perth stacks up much better for me than the Stingers whose main offensive threats seems to be Helms, Knight and who else? Also like the hustle players for perth...crawford and Robbins,they bring the spark and enrgy into the game that gives the whole team a lift in spirits.
As for Tigers beating Perth in perth....well that was a tough matchup that could go either way... end of the day though Tigs is the better team imo. Lampley playing awsome and with DT when healthy... this team is scary.
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Quote Originally Posted by binomial:
Dplay one thing i have been thinking of late is that when i use motivation or revenge as factors they are not my best picks.
Why did Singapore cover their last two road games? you could argue they had less motivation on the road than they do at home. If perth are so motivated for top 4 why did they blow a big lead against melbourne? why are wollongong playing better when they have no chance to make the finals?
People seem to like perth so i could be on the wrong side here. But my point is that most people want lots of stuff but aren't necessary capable of gittnem.
I can see where you're coming from.....in this case I also like the match ups and Perth stacks up much better for me than the Stingers whose main offensive threats seems to be Helms, Knight and who else? Also like the hustle players for perth...crawford and Robbins,they bring the spark and enrgy into the game that gives the whole team a lift in spirits.
As for Tigers beating Perth in perth....well that was a tough matchup that could go either way... end of the day though Tigs is the better team imo. Lampley playing awsome and with DT when healthy... this team is scary.
Hawks looking good with the start; but the Hawks and the Breakers are shooting 88% and 56% from beyond the arc respectively. If they keep this up, the under is no chance
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Hawks looking good with the start; but the Hawks and the Breakers are shooting 88% and 56% from beyond the arc respectively. If they keep this up, the under is no chance
- Brisbane are a different team at home this season
- souths are in freefall and heal is looking to blame everyone but himself
- mackinnon is back which should improve their defence even if he is a bit rusty offensively
Adelaide +7.5 1u
Think this is a bit too high:
- Redhage was too sick to practice with a fever yesterday but expected to play
- these two have played alot of close one over the years and I think there is a reasonable chance this will be another one
Sydney -3 1u
Sydney shot very poorly in the first half last week after a long layoff, starting 0/10 on 3s. Second half they got rolling. I think they have reasonable densive match ups for lampley - saville or worthington and maybe some victor.
Melbourne are playing alot better than when melbourne beat them, but i think sydney at home -3 still represents value.
Also playing the back to back under theory, will the trend continue or is it time for reversion to the mean?
Brisbane v Souths under 220.5 1u
Brisbane comitted over 40 fouls against Cairns pretty constantly throughout the game, giving Cairns 50 free throws. I hope they realise this isn't necessary against Souths offence.
West Sydney v NZ under 211.5 $1.95 1u
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YTD: 88-65 +21.2u
Brisbane -14.5 2.5u
- Brisbane are a different team at home this season
- souths are in freefall and heal is looking to blame everyone but himself
- mackinnon is back which should improve their defence even if he is a bit rusty offensively
Adelaide +7.5 1u
Think this is a bit too high:
- Redhage was too sick to practice with a fever yesterday but expected to play
- these two have played alot of close one over the years and I think there is a reasonable chance this will be another one
Sydney -3 1u
Sydney shot very poorly in the first half last week after a long layoff, starting 0/10 on 3s. Second half they got rolling. I think they have reasonable densive match ups for lampley - saville or worthington and maybe some victor.
Melbourne are playing alot better than when melbourne beat them, but i think sydney at home -3 still represents value.
Also playing the back to back under theory, will the trend continue or is it time for reversion to the mean?
Brisbane v Souths under 220.5 1u
Brisbane comitted over 40 fouls against Cairns pretty constantly throughout the game, giving Cairns 50 free throws. I hope they realise this isn't necessary against Souths offence.
I have like both over and under at different times today so am leaving it alone.
Fisher was saying they plan to play their best defence which if reasonably successful i reckon could see something in the 180s or even lower. Another factor is i think both teams will be pretty desparate and it could be plafoff like intensity which can lead to lower scores. My calculations also suggest under.
On the other Perth have been scoring more in their last few games, plus adelaide are pretty hard to stop because they are willing to jack up reasonably difficult shots quickly and have been shooting well of late. If they are hitting their 3s they can get a pretty big score even if the defence is ok.
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I have like both over and under at different times today so am leaving it alone.
Fisher was saying they plan to play their best defence which if reasonably successful i reckon could see something in the 180s or even lower. Another factor is i think both teams will be pretty desparate and it could be plafoff like intensity which can lead to lower scores. My calculations also suggest under.
On the other Perth have been scoring more in their last few games, plus adelaide are pretty hard to stop because they are willing to jack up reasonably difficult shots quickly and have been shooting well of late. If they are hitting their 3s they can get a pretty big score even if the defence is ok.
Another thing i considered that suggested under would be if redhage is to sick to play much or at all, i think that takes a large chunk out of their offence.
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Another thing i considered that suggested under would be if redhage is to sick to play much or at all, i think that takes a large chunk out of their offence.
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