I have seen quite a few people on the web say they like Brisbane (without providing any solid reasons) and I can't understand why.
For mine:
- Sydney have close to the greatest home court advantage
- they have lost one game all season, which was somewhat expected after their previous win over Brisbane
- their smallest winning margin has been 7 so teams have not even been making it close
- Brisbane have played three away games in a row, squeaking past a struggling Souths, getting smashed by Cairns and and losing to NZ by 1. This form does not suggest they will get close to the Kings in my opinion.
- home teams have been
Maybe this is the game Brisbane turn their form around. They did finish fast against NZ after digging a big hole, but i don't expect it to happen.
Sydney v Brisbane under 207 1u
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 30-24 +2.4u
Sydney -2.5 2u
I have seen quite a few people on the web say they like Brisbane (without providing any solid reasons) and I can't understand why.
For mine:
- Sydney have close to the greatest home court advantage
- they have lost one game all season, which was somewhat expected after their previous win over Brisbane
- their smallest winning margin has been 7 so teams have not even been making it close
- Brisbane have played three away games in a row, squeaking past a struggling Souths, getting smashed by Cairns and and losing to NZ by 1. This form does not suggest they will get close to the Kings in my opinion.
- home teams have been
Maybe this is the game Brisbane turn their form around. They did finish fast against NZ after digging a big hole, but i don't expect it to happen.
thanks guys, although your analysis that it was anyones game was better than mine rod, i just got lucky. you wouldn't think that brisbane would lose if mackinnon, bruton and ere would all play well and have 28, 25 and 23. bit of work needed on defence.
YTD: 31-25 +3.3u
NZ v Singapore over 205.5 1u
NZ tend to score it up at home and Singapore tend to give up plenty on the road. My calculations forecast somewhere between 210 and 215.
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thanks guys, although your analysis that it was anyones game was better than mine rod, i just got lucky. you wouldn't think that brisbane would lose if mackinnon, bruton and ere would all play well and have 28, 25 and 23. bit of work needed on defence.
YTD: 31-25 +3.3u
NZ v Singapore over 205.5 1u
NZ tend to score it up at home and Singapore tend to give up plenty on the road. My calculations forecast somewhere between 210 and 215.
I decided to be more selective, but i like all of these so wtf.
Sydney +5.5 1u
Melbourne v Sydney under 192.5 2u
Games between these two in recent times have been defensive wars. Totals last season were 182, 163 and 161.
Souths v Townsville under 205.5 1u
Townsville are not playing the flat out jack it up quick style of last season and have not been scoring many points.
West Sydney -4 1u
West Sydney v Gold Coast under 202.5 1u
Harvey is meant to be struggling with a bruised foot and Hawkins is questionable with a groin strain, Even if they play I like the pigs to cover the 4.
Gold Coast play a slow tempo and if Hawkins is out i think they will look to Pero and Melmeth in the post, slowing things even more. West Sydney games have had big totals when they are playing another team that is happy to run up and down and play no defence but against defensive, slower tempo teams they have been around 200 or lower.
Cairns -9.5 1u
Cairns v Wollongong under 192.5 1u
Wollongong were all over the shop without Tait last night committing 25 turnovers and struggling to score. I can't see them fixing this overnight, especially against Cairns who are generally pretty strong defensively.
Perth +3 1u
Perth v Brisbane under 210.5 1u
Wrong side favoured in my opinion.
I think Brisbane will realise they need to play much better defence, hopefully it starts tonight.
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YTD: 31-26 +2.3u
I decided to be more selective, but i like all of these so wtf.
Sydney +5.5 1u
Melbourne v Sydney under 192.5 2u
Games between these two in recent times have been defensive wars. Totals last season were 182, 163 and 161.
Souths v Townsville under 205.5 1u
Townsville are not playing the flat out jack it up quick style of last season and have not been scoring many points.
West Sydney -4 1u
West Sydney v Gold Coast under 202.5 1u
Harvey is meant to be struggling with a bruised foot and Hawkins is questionable with a groin strain, Even if they play I like the pigs to cover the 4.
Gold Coast play a slow tempo and if Hawkins is out i think they will look to Pero and Melmeth in the post, slowing things even more. West Sydney games have had big totals when they are playing another team that is happy to run up and down and play no defence but against defensive, slower tempo teams they have been around 200 or lower.
Cairns -9.5 1u
Cairns v Wollongong under 192.5 1u
Wollongong were all over the shop without Tait last night committing 25 turnovers and struggling to score. I can't see them fixing this overnight, especially against Cairns who are generally pretty strong defensively.
Perth +3 1u
Perth v Brisbane under 210.5 1u
Wrong side favoured in my opinion.
I think Brisbane will realise they need to play much better defence, hopefully it starts tonight.
I think this is a few points too high all things being equal. Add in that Hawkins isn't likely too play and he is one of Gold Coast's best offensive players, plus GC will not be in a hurry given they played last night and will try and slow the game more than usual, I like this bet. Risk is that NZ set a high tempo trying to tire GC out.
Singapore -2 2u
I saw Singapore on tv for the first time and was quite amused by how they play. Grizzard and Helms have a licence to do what ever they want in offence, Grizzard usually throws in at least one spin before he shoots. Apart from Ben Knight who is solid as always, the rest of the cast are way raw but giving it their best. Alot depends on whether Helms and Grizzard are making a decent percentage of their shots.
Adelaide go in to this one without Maher and Dench. Dench is not a huge loss because they have Mottram and Cooper who can take the time. With Davidson back it is questionable how much they will miss Maher. On many occasions in the past they have gone to powder without him and got smashed. Davidson has been playing well and may keep them on track.
Singapore have often struggled against the better defensive sides, copping beltings from Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Gold Coast. But agains the token defence played by Townsville they had a comfortable 15 point win. Adelaide are the worst defensive side in the league by my calculations, which makes me think Singapore may go ok.
After beating Perth last home game and having every chance to win in NZ, I think Singapore will see this as very winable and give it their best. Throw in the chance of Adelaide not dealing with the loss of Maher and that they are usually hopeless on the road and I am willing to make this a two unit bet.
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YTD: 38-28 +5.6u
Gold Coast v NZ under 193.5 2u
I think this is a few points too high all things being equal. Add in that Hawkins isn't likely too play and he is one of Gold Coast's best offensive players, plus GC will not be in a hurry given they played last night and will try and slow the game more than usual, I like this bet. Risk is that NZ set a high tempo trying to tire GC out.
Singapore -2 2u
I saw Singapore on tv for the first time and was quite amused by how they play. Grizzard and Helms have a licence to do what ever they want in offence, Grizzard usually throws in at least one spin before he shoots. Apart from Ben Knight who is solid as always, the rest of the cast are way raw but giving it their best. Alot depends on whether Helms and Grizzard are making a decent percentage of their shots.
Adelaide go in to this one without Maher and Dench. Dench is not a huge loss because they have Mottram and Cooper who can take the time. With Davidson back it is questionable how much they will miss Maher. On many occasions in the past they have gone to powder without him and got smashed. Davidson has been playing well and may keep them on track.
Singapore have often struggled against the better defensive sides, copping beltings from Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Gold Coast. But agains the token defence played by Townsville they had a comfortable 15 point win. Adelaide are the worst defensive side in the league by my calculations, which makes me think Singapore may go ok.
After beating Perth last home game and having every chance to win in NZ, I think Singapore will see this as very winable and give it their best. Throw in the chance of Adelaide not dealing with the loss of Maher and that they are usually hopeless on the road and I am willing to make this a two unit bet.
Don't really look the part but with away wins against Melbourne and Brisbane plus dominating at home, they are the team to beat at the moment.
2. Melbourne
3. Cairns
If Darnell Mee and Cattalini stay fit for the rest of the season I think they will be a serious contender.
4. Brisbane
I don't think they are as strong as last year and think they will continue to lose some games here and there. However I would not be suprised if they got on a roll and won 15 straight and finished top.
5. Gold Coast
With thee A graders in Harvey, Hawkins and Crowe and some other quality players they have got their act together pretty quickly.
6. West Sydney
7. Perth
Had them at 4 or 5 at the beginning of the season but they have had some very poor results such as getting beaten comfortablly by Singapore. They have the players to do better.
8. Souths
The alternatives for mine are NZ and Townsville, who I am not particularly sold on. While they have not won games, they have blown wins against the top teams Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney in the last quarter. If they get Horvath as a non import they could improve alot in the second half of the season.
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My predictions for the regular season top 8:
1. Sydney
Don't really look the part but with away wins against Melbourne and Brisbane plus dominating at home, they are the team to beat at the moment.
2. Melbourne
3. Cairns
If Darnell Mee and Cattalini stay fit for the rest of the season I think they will be a serious contender.
4. Brisbane
I don't think they are as strong as last year and think they will continue to lose some games here and there. However I would not be suprised if they got on a roll and won 15 straight and finished top.
5. Gold Coast
With thee A graders in Harvey, Hawkins and Crowe and some other quality players they have got their act together pretty quickly.
6. West Sydney
7. Perth
Had them at 4 or 5 at the beginning of the season but they have had some very poor results such as getting beaten comfortablly by Singapore. They have the players to do better.
8. Souths
The alternatives for mine are NZ and Townsville, who I am not particularly sold on. While they have not won games, they have blown wins against the top teams Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney in the last quarter. If they get Horvath as a non import they could improve alot in the second half of the season.
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