Posted:
#1
There's three value bets that I see tonight.
Breakers v Dragons
Dragons are horrible this year. They have some talented players but they can't put it together... especially with Heal leading them. New coaches can sometimes inspire a team and at home, the dragons might try a little harder but a talented team like the Breakers should woop 'em. The Breakers showed their reliance on Penny when they came back against the Cats. Penny had 6 up to half time combined with Redhage only scoring 2 for the second half was enough to get me a win in that game.
Breakers are also on the bottom of the finals bracket. They are a couple of games clear of the 36ers but could easily jump from playing Brisbane or the Wildcats to a much more favourable opponent.
Bullets @ Sixers
Bullets want that second spot. They have to pressure the tigers into making a mistake to get it.Sam Mak and Boucher aren't playing but that doesn't matter too much. With Maher out, the sixers only have three scoring options... Ng, Hodge and Balls. They combined the other night to score about 90% of the team's points. Bullets know this and have the talent to shut them down. Hodge is going to have his hands full trying to defend Ebe.
Kings @ Cats
Should be a tight game. With Loughton back, the sides match up pretty well. Both teams are going to attempt to control the tempo... that means slowing it down and not making mistakes. It's 3 hours from game time and 38 degrees over here. The players are going to be stuffed from the weather which is another reason it will be tight. The line is about right but these conditions are good for the under. It's small at 188 but I still think it's good value. Also, aussie teams rarely make it to OT.
Summary... two away teams (which kills me) but both need the wins and a tight, low scoring game.
Breakers -4 (Bigger play)
Bullets -3
Cats Kings U188.5
0
Well done
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