Both teams produced solid offensive numbers in their regional openers. Kentucky beat Ohio 6-4 & NC State edged Indian 7-6 in extra innings. The Wildcats were actually under their season average that saw they put up 7.4 runs per game as one of the top offenses in the country. Kentucky is deep and powerful in their lineup with eight players batting over .300 on the season for a team that scored 444 runs before yesterday, ranking them in the Top 12 in D1. They scuffled a bit down the stretch with their run production, but they have hit the cover off the ball at home more often than not.
The Wolfpack don't score at the same rate, but they have some big boppers with 60 home runs, just six behind Kentucky. They added two last night against Indiana. The offense has been really consistent late in the season though, tallying six runs or better in 12 of their last 15 games. Lewis has been solid with a .218 BAA, but he has had some inconsistent starts here and there. I don't expect he'll get shelled, but the Wolfpack should be able to produce some runs. Bienlien has been a mix and match starter, this will be his 10th of the year in 18 appearances. He has a .252 BAA and decent numbers outside of his ERA. He got shelled in his last start in the last regular season series against Clemson, giving up 5 ER in 2.1 IP. N.C. State's pen is decent, but gettable so they could definitely tack on more runs.
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Pick #9: Kentucky-N.C. State Over 11 @ -110
UK: Justin Lewis 6-3 (3.28)
NCST: Michael Bienlien 3-3 (4.53)
Both teams produced solid offensive numbers in their regional openers. Kentucky beat Ohio 6-4 & NC State edged Indian 7-6 in extra innings. The Wildcats were actually under their season average that saw they put up 7.4 runs per game as one of the top offenses in the country. Kentucky is deep and powerful in their lineup with eight players batting over .300 on the season for a team that scored 444 runs before yesterday, ranking them in the Top 12 in D1. They scuffled a bit down the stretch with their run production, but they have hit the cover off the ball at home more often than not.
The Wolfpack don't score at the same rate, but they have some big boppers with 60 home runs, just six behind Kentucky. They added two last night against Indiana. The offense has been really consistent late in the season though, tallying six runs or better in 12 of their last 15 games. Lewis has been solid with a .218 BAA, but he has had some inconsistent starts here and there. I don't expect he'll get shelled, but the Wolfpack should be able to produce some runs. Bienlien has been a mix and match starter, this will be his 10th of the year in 18 appearances. He has a .252 BAA and decent numbers outside of his ERA. He got shelled in his last start in the last regular season series against Clemson, giving up 5 ER in 2.1 IP. N.C. State's pen is decent, but gettable so they could definitely tack on more runs.
Sam Houston State rolled the dice in Game 1 by holding back their ace and it gives them a great shot to win and keep themselves in the pole position in this region. Donica struck out 100 in 101+ IP with a BAA at .197. He's experienced and just a rock for this experienced team. Tech has been a beast at home, but good pitching has slowed them down consistently. The Red Raiders have also slowed some lately with five runs or less in three of four in the postseason. They struggled in Game against Delaware, putting up a couple runs late to get to five. Shetter has been solid down the stretch. He has a BAA of .242. He has racked up 72 Ks in 67 IP. Sam has a solid offense that relies more on piecing hits together than the long ball. Donica got beat up last year against Arizona in the regional and I think he'll beat out for blood in what has been a fantastic season for the senior.
This is another one where given that Sam Houston has their ace going + the experience, the price is very nice to try the dog even in a hostile road environment.
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Pick #11: Sam Houston State @ +215
TECH: Ryan Shetter 4-0 (3.49)
SAM: Heath Donica 9-1 (1.69)
Sam Houston State rolled the dice in Game 1 by holding back their ace and it gives them a great shot to win and keep themselves in the pole position in this region. Donica struck out 100 in 101+ IP with a BAA at .197. He's experienced and just a rock for this experienced team. Tech has been a beast at home, but good pitching has slowed them down consistently. The Red Raiders have also slowed some lately with five runs or less in three of four in the postseason. They struggled in Game against Delaware, putting up a couple runs late to get to five. Shetter has been solid down the stretch. He has a BAA of .242. He has racked up 72 Ks in 67 IP. Sam has a solid offense that relies more on piecing hits together than the long ball. Donica got beat up last year against Arizona in the regional and I think he'll beat out for blood in what has been a fantastic season for the senior.
This is another one where given that Sam Houston has their ace going + the experience, the price is very nice to try the dog even in a hostile road environment.
TCU goes to Traver again to open a Regional, pretty much a given the last few years. He has not been as good this year as last with injuries to blame perhaps for some of his inconsistency. Traver does come off his best start of the year perhaps though against Texas in the Big 12 tournament, where he went 7 IP, giving up four hits and one ER while whiffing eight. He's still more than strikeout per inning with 39 in just 33.1 IP, but he was troubled with 17 walks. That has been his kryptonite. He gets a Central Connecticut team that does not score runs that well however, averaging near six for the season, but that came in a weak conference.
Their one foray outside the conferene that you can use to size them us was a four game road trip to Oklahoma. They scored five runs in the series. Smith for his part, did a good job in a 3-0 loss to OU. He's not a dominant type pitcher, but he's a senior who eats innings and should be able to at least limit some of the damage. TCU's offense has been inconsistent and they sport just a .272 team average. They are still without their big bopper Luken Baker as well. They scored 3, 9, 6, 9 and 3 in the Big 12 tournament to highlight their ups and downs. They can definitely rack up runs even without Baker.
Both teams have been waiting a long time to get their first game in this regional due to the weather. With the prospect of playing two games on Sunday if you lose, this is a big spot for the top seeded Horned Frogs to take care of business as quick as they can. They could score ten by themselves, but I tend to think that unless Central Connecticut gets to Traver by piecing together walks, etc. - that TCU will have to score big for this to go over 10.
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Pick: TCU-Central Connecticut St Under 10 @ -110
CC: Brendan Smith 5-7 (4.03)
TCU: Mitchell Traver 3-1 (4.32)
TCU goes to Traver again to open a Regional, pretty much a given the last few years. He has not been as good this year as last with injuries to blame perhaps for some of his inconsistency. Traver does come off his best start of the year perhaps though against Texas in the Big 12 tournament, where he went 7 IP, giving up four hits and one ER while whiffing eight. He's still more than strikeout per inning with 39 in just 33.1 IP, but he was troubled with 17 walks. That has been his kryptonite. He gets a Central Connecticut team that does not score runs that well however, averaging near six for the season, but that came in a weak conference.
Their one foray outside the conferene that you can use to size them us was a four game road trip to Oklahoma. They scored five runs in the series. Smith for his part, did a good job in a 3-0 loss to OU. He's not a dominant type pitcher, but he's a senior who eats innings and should be able to at least limit some of the damage. TCU's offense has been inconsistent and they sport just a .272 team average. They are still without their big bopper Luken Baker as well. They scored 3, 9, 6, 9 and 3 in the Big 12 tournament to highlight their ups and downs. They can definitely rack up runs even without Baker.
Both teams have been waiting a long time to get their first game in this regional due to the weather. With the prospect of playing two games on Sunday if you lose, this is a big spot for the top seeded Horned Frogs to take care of business as quick as they can. They could score ten by themselves, but I tend to think that unless Central Connecticut gets to Traver by piecing together walks, etc. - that TCU will have to score big for this to go over 10.
TCU ending was insane. Frogs scored 6 in the bottom of the 8th - it's STILL under at that point and then they let in 5 in the top of the 9th to blow it. Pretty hurtful, but that's the way it goes sometimes.
Another day today!
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TCU ending was insane. Frogs scored 6 in the bottom of the 8th - it's STILL under at that point and then they let in 5 in the top of the 9th to blow it. Pretty hurtful, but that's the way it goes sometimes.
This is a revenge spot for the Terps who were blasted out of the park on Friday by West Virginia 9-1. WV comes in off a late walk-off loss to Wake Forest last night in which they used two key bullpen pieces for fairly extended work. That could loom big if freshman Kade Strowd isn't able to go deep in this game. Strowd only became a starter down the stretch due to injury. He's given up more than a hit per inning and has had major issues with walks. Blohm had been solid with just under a strikeout per inning on the season and a solid .231 BAA. Blohm's problem has been an inability to go deep in games, but the Terps are set up pretty well in the pen going into this one. If he can give them at least five and a lead or being even, they should feel good.
Maryland's offense busted out against UMBC last night for 16 runs, so they should come in feeling much better after being handcuffed in Game by Alex Manoah and BJ Myers. The offense have fairly similar numbers with the Terps having the better power numbers which they will hope pays off better in this one than it did on Friday. Maryland hit four bombs against UMBC on Saturday. I think the key is for the Terps to get to Strowd early and make West Virginia go to the pen. If they do that and Blohm gives them quality innings, they should have a shot.
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Pick: Maryland @ +110, Sunday June 4th
UM: Tyler Blohm 8-6 (3.62)
WV: Kade Strowd 1-3 (5.49)
This is a revenge spot for the Terps who were blasted out of the park on Friday by West Virginia 9-1. WV comes in off a late walk-off loss to Wake Forest last night in which they used two key bullpen pieces for fairly extended work. That could loom big if freshman Kade Strowd isn't able to go deep in this game. Strowd only became a starter down the stretch due to injury. He's given up more than a hit per inning and has had major issues with walks. Blohm had been solid with just under a strikeout per inning on the season and a solid .231 BAA. Blohm's problem has been an inability to go deep in games, but the Terps are set up pretty well in the pen going into this one. If he can give them at least five and a lead or being even, they should feel good.
Maryland's offense busted out against UMBC last night for 16 runs, so they should come in feeling much better after being handcuffed in Game by Alex Manoah and BJ Myers. The offense have fairly similar numbers with the Terps having the better power numbers which they will hope pays off better in this one than it did on Friday. Maryland hit four bombs against UMBC on Saturday. I think the key is for the Terps to get to Strowd early and make West Virginia go to the pen. If they do that and Blohm gives them quality innings, they should have a shot.
Pick: Kentucky-Indiana Under 11.5 @ -110, Sunday June 4th
UK: Zach Thompson 7-2 (3.34)
IU: Cal Krueger 5-1 (2.35)
Kentucky finds itself in an all-to-familiar spot of failing to get out of a Regional. They turn to their best pitcher to keep them alive. Thompson's ERA rates a little high when you think of ace's, but the rest of his numbers are definitely elite. His BAA is .181 and he's tallied 83 Ks in 64.2 IP. When he gets in trouble, it's walks (35) that undue him. Thompson has been used as a do-everything guy, so lately that has been coming out of the bullpen. This is his first start in a while. What likely put him here - he beat Indiana earlier this year 5-2, striking out 10 batters. The Cats have a deep bullpen that has not been called on for heavy duty, so if Thompson gets them 5-6 IP minimum they should feel good.
Krueger was inserted into Indiana's rotation late in the year as their #3 starter really struggled. He pitched well in the role and makes sense here. His BAA is .242 and he's not a dominant strikeout guy. He is crafty though and has given the Hoosier innings when he has started and kept them in games. IU has a solid closer and some decent pieces they can use, so if they get a quality start from them - they have the guys to keep the game tight late. Kentucky is obviously a dangerous offensive team, but they have not been busting out lately. They have put up runs, but been limiting to solo homers when they have hit the long ball.
I think the key is Thompson. If he is able to shut down Indiana's bats again, then even if the Cats exploded a bit today - this could still go under the number.
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Pick: Kentucky-Indiana Under 11.5 @ -110, Sunday June 4th
UK: Zach Thompson 7-2 (3.34)
IU: Cal Krueger 5-1 (2.35)
Kentucky finds itself in an all-to-familiar spot of failing to get out of a Regional. They turn to their best pitcher to keep them alive. Thompson's ERA rates a little high when you think of ace's, but the rest of his numbers are definitely elite. His BAA is .181 and he's tallied 83 Ks in 64.2 IP. When he gets in trouble, it's walks (35) that undue him. Thompson has been used as a do-everything guy, so lately that has been coming out of the bullpen. This is his first start in a while. What likely put him here - he beat Indiana earlier this year 5-2, striking out 10 batters. The Cats have a deep bullpen that has not been called on for heavy duty, so if Thompson gets them 5-6 IP minimum they should feel good.
Krueger was inserted into Indiana's rotation late in the year as their #3 starter really struggled. He pitched well in the role and makes sense here. His BAA is .242 and he's not a dominant strikeout guy. He is crafty though and has given the Hoosier innings when he has started and kept them in games. IU has a solid closer and some decent pieces they can use, so if they get a quality start from them - they have the guys to keep the game tight late. Kentucky is obviously a dangerous offensive team, but they have not been busting out lately. They have put up runs, but been limiting to solo homers when they have hit the long ball.
I think the key is Thompson. If he is able to shut down Indiana's bats again, then even if the Cats exploded a bit today - this could still go under the number.
Both teams have scored with regularlity in this region. Rice put up 13 on Texas Southern after they scored six against SELA in the opener. SELA scored six against a quality LSU pitching staff after they laid 12 on Rice. Both these starters have their moments of effectiveness, but they both don't normally go too deep into games. The bullpens for both clubs are taxed and were a bit iffy to begin with. SELA has now given up six runs or more in eight straight.
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Pick: Rice-SE Louisiana Over 11.5 @ -110
RICE: Dane Myers 1-5 (4.09)
SELA: Carlisle Koestler 4-4 (4.48)
Both teams have scored with regularlity in this region. Rice put up 13 on Texas Southern after they scored six against SELA in the opener. SELA scored six against a quality LSU pitching staff after they laid 12 on Rice. Both these starters have their moments of effectiveness, but they both don't normally go too deep into games. The bullpens for both clubs are taxed and were a bit iffy to begin with. SELA has now given up six runs or more in eight straight.
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