Rod's NBL Round 7

YTD 1-2

o166.5 Hawks v Tigers

Blaze +8.5 over Breakers

Taipans pk over Hawks

I refuse to believe the Hawks are as good as where they are placed to start the season, their record is inflated by their schedule to date where they have enjoyed playing at home. This game represents their 3rd game in 6 days including travel from Perth then back up the Cairns. At home Taipans always hard to beat sans the Sixers game which I put down to as a bit of an aberration. Better effort against the Sixers last round in Adelaide should make the Snakes primed for this one IMO.

im still confused.. it makes sense to bet the winning team IE Wollongong however last time they played:

Cairns - Had:

1. more shots (missed alot)

2. Was away from home

3. More offensive boards

4. More FT's

If they do 5-10 % better then last time at their at HOME then they SHOULD WIN...

I know Im gonna end up feeling bad about my choice so I think I'll sit on the fence for another 20 Mins !

Cooler, Cairns is a totally different kettle of fish at home, they've had a week to ponder their recent shitfullness, they're coming off a 50 point loss at home and they've copped it twice from the Hawks this season at their place.

No doubt which team has the bigger fire in it's belly tonight.

well its done.. Battler pushed me over the line..

2.3 Units..

Im going to go with the team in FORM being Wollongong.. too many ifs and buts with Cairns although it would not be surprising to see them SHOW up.

Like battler said Wollongong WILL get 80 + points so its up to Cairns to get their shit together..personally I hope they don't !

GL ALL..

Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

going against you here, so your bet is probably a lock.

who would you rate above Wollongong? as everyone says it is very even, but i have trouble pointing to anyone who is consistently playing better. NZ and Perth are my two candidates. apart from whipping Adelaide, Perth's home wins have been close affairs and I don't see them as a standout. NZ are inconsistent and still a terrible road team.

I like the way wollongong are playing, alot of movement on offence, lots of assists, balanced scoring - 6 players in double figures on wednesday, my numbers also have them the highest rated team defensively.

you could be right about the schedule having an effect but Matt Campbell was the only player who played 30+ minutes on wednesday and I tend to think it is just as likely players are itching for court time.

cairns cant put the ball in the hole. i have their average 2point % at 43% nearly 5% worse than any other team. this can change but I think it is just as likely it continues to get worse. Mills is averaging 10p @ 33% and Melzer 12p @ 33%. They pretty much need their output to double given they don't have alot of other offensive weapons. 

i played Wollongong -1.5 $2.10 

Don't get me wrong, the Hawks have been playing great basketball since the preseason tournament. The games I have seen them play they are a very solid basketball team but nothing more. Apart from McKee they lack star power which is what you really need to make a decent run come playoff time. However as I mentioned their record is a little deceiving

* They have had a very favorable schedule to date stacked with home games to start the season.

* They are one of the few teams, in fact perhaps along with the Crocs the only teams that have retained the core group of players from their roster from last season meaning whilst other teams are still working on chemistry and trying to overcome injuries to key players the Hawks have gotten the jump

Looking at their upcoming schedule I think we will see a correction in their record and once the other teams (and far for more talented teams IMO such as the Blaze, Breakers, Tigers and Cats get back key players/find their chemistry) I believe the Hawks will slide down the ladder. Tomorrow night is going to be a huge test for them against the Crocs, personally I don't see how they escape a significant beating.

Crocs -9.5 over Hawks

Crocs -9.5 =  

And that after I was finished laying into the Hawks

3-1 for the round