ROUND 20 AFL

Not to intrude on Erich's thread, i'll set this up but we often collaborate during the round to talk plays so please check out his thread. I've said it before but I prefer to bet favourites than I do dogs with pts (doesnt mean I wont).

ROUND 20: LEANS ONLY, OFFICIAL PLAYS CLOSER TO GAMETIME

Swans v Pies

Swans -21.5
Both teams playing poorly recently, Swans I don't know why because I highly rate them and Pies have no structure with Cloke out. He is a good chance to return this week but coming back from a calf injury he may struggle. Swans play the SCG extremely well and Buddy should be ready after a week off.

Bombers v Crows - No Lean
I'm a bombers supporter and we are a basketcase at the moment, I think the players are over this season. Crows are decent and have finals to play for, but I have that feeling that Bombers will snap out of it one week, particularly at home and play very well. Unfortunately, I don't know when that week will be but it wouldn't surprise me if it was this one.

North v Saints - no lean
I like North, but Saints can pull rabbits out of the hat. If anything, think about playing the Over Total Points here.

Power v Giants - BIG lean power -16.5
I love playing Power at home, particularly against poor away sides, like the Giants. Ryder and Lobbe should have a field day against the light ruck stocks of GWS and I really don't see GWS staying within 3 goals. Also lean 1Q first half handicap
Like this play a lot, see it taking a similar path as the power v saints game a few weeks ago

Brisbane v Carlton - small lean Brisbane
Ugh... Gross game. Lean Brisbane just because Saturday night at Gabba.

Cats v Hawks - lean Hawks -27.5
Cats have made me cash lately, but I could never go against Hawks. I might just sit back and enjoy this one, but if I had go play then Hawks are better across all lines really... Plus their speed with Smith, Rioli and Hill will really trouble the Cats

Tigers v Suns - Tigers -31.5
Don't rate Suns much, but the poor guys have been destroyed by injuries all season. Think they will shut up shop for the season, and Tigers need to win. Think Tigs roll here

Dogs v Demons - lean Dogs
Dogs in great form, might as well roll with them.

Freo v Eagles - lean Freo ML or -9.5
Eagles injuries and suspensions will really hurt them, and Fyfe is back for Freo. Only thing that concerns me is if Mcpharlin is out for Freo, they may struggle to match up on Kennedy and Darling.

Sorry for the long writeup, in short, have a close look at Swans and Power this week at the line, 1Q line and 1/2 line, I think they are real go-ers and will likely lock in those lines now.

BOL TO ALL - these are just my thoughts. All these bets may win, they may all lose. Bet wisely, be nice, have the faith and let's do this!

Haha, thanks for the shoutout mate. ;-) Love this game by game view and agree with most of what you have here. Definitely reinforce the don't bet against Hawks, especially when they're on.

Didn't think about the over in Roos game... are the Saints injuries more on the offensive or defensive side. They had some new ones this week.

I'll need to double check, they're not big losses, but these teams are similar in style to Dogs Port last week. Just hoping for free flowing no defence footy under the roof :)

LOVE the swans and power, these are the plays I look for, if they lose so be it, its the right call

I'd love the Power had they won last week.  I would monitor their website and see what the players and coaches are saying now that their Finals hopes are down to a shred.

Swans should be a no-brainer at the SCG but Collingwood is playing for everything now so that's unfortunate from a betting point-of-view.

I love this time of year as the motivations of the teams vary greatly and start to tell.  I was on North and the Pies last weekend based on motivation versus none whatsoever.

i will add ur picks for my parlays.  lots sports this weekends peekay.  

As mentioned in the other thread Buddy is out. Also that even though the Pies have had the wood over Sydney in Sydney for many years now the game being at the SCG will help Sydney. I am a Swans supporter and I can tell you from watching the games and listening to the experts Sydney is leaking points. The defense has lost the plot since the bye. Some players are having shockers like Tippett and Shaw but I am confident they will come good this friday. Teams are exposing Pyke as well. On the Pies side Cloke might not make the side, that should also help as the only tall timber to contend with is a young player and Swans discard.

I feel for you as a bombers fan. I think Hird's game plan is hurting the team as much as all the other stuff going on. I'm not as confident of a win against the crows. I think if they are going win it will be next week.

MRP, Injuries are out, teams tomorrow and see if that changes your mind on things.

Thanks for the insight ecoute - I thought Buddy's back was only to keep him out for 1 but seems not.

Makes things a bit more interesting but I just don't like Pies at all at the moment.

Rohan out of all people will not affect my thinking, he is junk. Franklin out is the only thing clouding my judgement.

Will wait until tomorrow but there is no play at the moment I am comfortable on.

Another thing to note is that a lot of the Pies players have never played at the SCG and that is interesting. Pyke back allows Tippett to play forward which he needs to

Rohan out of all people will not affect my thinking, he is junk. Franklin out is the only thing clouding my judgement.

Will wait until tomorrow but there is no play at the moment I am comfortable on.

Another thing to note is that a lot of the Pies players have never played at the SCG and that is interesting. Pyke back allows Tippett to play forward which he needs to

Port out to -24.5, wtf?
NM to 33.5
Bris to 5.5
Tich to 32.5

I c now on Port: they dropped 5 players from last week, lol.

swans does look good. my only hesitation with this is that collingwood does have a good record against swans (pretty impressive actually) though collingwood is just absolutely horrible the past few games so i'm going to give it to the swans. good luck!

Not thrilled about tonight anymore, I love Swans at SCG, I don't like Swans with no Franklin.

Small play only tonight while we wait for some better options over the weekend

Sydney Swans 1st Quarter Line : -4.5

CHEEKY SIDE PLAY: First goal Isaac Heeney at $17 or Luke Parker at $16

BOL ALL

1q 1h big Nancy... :-P

Franklin is muted when teams want him to be.

Swans win 1Q 22-14 and cover the -4.5 line

1-0 start to the weekend, no live plays tonight. Heeney had a set shot 40m out for first goal at $17 but missed :(

BOL to all for the rest of the night

No play on early games Buddy?

ugh. north melbourne just completely lost it. it's supposed to be an easy win for them

Live bet at HT was THE play of the weekend (to date).

Any plays on afternoon or eve games fents?

Specially Port PK

Hawks 1Q

2 mins in 2Q and Hawks get a gimme goal after carrying it out... lol

Why aren't you at the match buddy?!?!

I was watching it my friend. 1Q plays making me dough, hit about 8 in a row