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Stevie Wonders - AFL Round 5

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Posted: #1


I've pointed out very simple pros and against for the OVER in other threads.

Something else that occurs to me. I don't think the Dons will be able to kick in long in this game and as like to do..... does that mean more scoring opportunity and Dons having to change their game style ?

Not sure I like Saints -17.5. I see them winning but what you are effectively doing is saying that the Saints will keep the Dons to low scoring, something which has not happened even with their forwards out. So can the Saints then outscore the Dons?

Maybe I am being to simple here. I've always said that big mismatches in styles and bodies leads to OVERS but I will wait and see before making a call.


 
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Posted: #2
....... more scoring opportunities for saints I meant. Thinking about it since the first post another reason possibly for the saints is as they lose veterans in J Johnson and Peverill that the kiddies might look to kick to Lloyd who will probably try to be all things and run up the ground? Dunno Tozer what do you think as mentioned I have not followed the Dons this year.

Read into this extract what you want;

Quizzed if he felt the Bombers had enough runners at their disposal to cover its sidelined midfielders, O’Donnell was confident they did – for now.

"We think we have, [but] we wouldn’t [want to] lose any more," he said.

"We’ve got a full complement we think are going to be able to instigate and continue with the plans in how we want to carry the ball."

The Bombers' upcoming opponent has been roundly criticised for its slow play in recent weeks, with some talk they may look to speed up their team by axing veteran forward Fraser Gehrig.

Sportstab has +18.5 / 205.5 as the combo. I'd probably take the 205.5..... wait and see what Sportsacumen comes out with is my thinking.
 
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Posted: #3
Sportsbet No
Selection (default) Price
  1113 St Kilda Under 39.5 Pts 2.20
  1213 St Kilda Over 39.5 Pts 3.00
  1221 Draw 51.00
  1105 Essendon Under 39.5 Pts 3.75
  1205 Essendon Over 39.5 Pts 13.00

Saints over 39.5 @ $3 is a little suprising to me. I am inclined from these number to think that the linemakers believe that this will be a low scoring game for the Dons. This even with the inclusion of Lloyd.
 
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Posted: #4
At the moment, I'm not tempted by the line. But I'll probably put 1-3 units on tonights match, like you I'm just trying to find something with value.
 
One thing the saints have done consistently this year is come out strong. I'm not too good on totals (unless its obvious) so I'm thinking saints first quarter or half at this stage. But I'll probably be back by lunch for my final picks. I think it should be a good weekend for us
 
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Posted: #5
This round is by far the hardest to wager on.  A lot of evenly-matched teams and/or the books seemingly getting the line correct.

Essendon has a shot at winning this one outright, IMO, and will run all night.  St. Kilda fades HUGE at the end of games and that fading will be amplified by the running style of the Bombers.  Essendon might not win in the end, but 17.5 is a huge head-start for this kind of game.
 
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Posted: #6
Gents what is interesting is Sportstab highest scoring team options. Saints are 3rd at $6.50, whilst the Dons are middle of the pack at $18. Something here is just wrong !!!!
 
 
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Posted: #7
 
Summary;
 
Goalsneak Sniderman is out
Gardiner is out
Clarke brother 1 has a niggle
Legend Harvey has a niggle
 
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Posted: #8
ecoute - Is that true about the highest scoring team wager?  Wow.  I always check the other available props/wagers at TAB because they usually give away the book's thoughts on a match.

For example, in the NRL this round, worldwide books are putting the Storm 3.00 to win by 1-12 or under and a mere Evens to win by more than 13.  Now, the line is only -8.5 for me, -10.5 on TAB.  If that is the case, why the heck is payout evens for anything from 2.5 to 4.5 points over the line?  Why is 1-12, well within the line, a whopping 3.00?!  Books telling you their opinion.

But how much weight can you put on the TAB highest scoring team prop?  Carlton is 2nd best at 5.50 and their opponent, Melbourne, is 2nd Worst at 26.00.  However, the lines between that match and the Bombers/Saints match are very similar! 

Anyone else chime in on this?
 
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Posted: #9
That's 3.00 on 1-12 for the Storm.  Please ignore the "under" bit. 
 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



But how much weight can you put on the TAB highest scoring team prop?  Carlton is 2nd best at 5.50 and their opponent, Melbourne, is 2nd Worst at 26.00.  However, the lines between that match and the Bombers/Saints match are very similar! 

Anyone else chime in on this?

Look mate it is true this is what the linemaker calculates will happen. They are right sometimes, wrong other time but yes sometimes you can see things in looking at all the lines. I would not read anything into the Blues / Dees game. Honestly the Blues have an okay team and just needed to get back in the winning. Look at what they did to the Pies.

Putting Saints though as the 3rd highest scoring team with Fletcher and Michael in defence, two very good defenders is either a trap or they expect it to be a high scoring game. I have to think high scoring game because the one thing those two have in common is that they are very good at the wrestling full forward type stop but are slow. McVeigh also being out means they have one weak D. Their midfield is missing two veterans........ Anyhow there are good arguments on the flipside too.

 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

ecoute - Is that true about the highest scoring team wager?  Wow.  I always check the other available props/wagers at TAB because they usually give away the book's thoughts on a match.

For example, in the NRL this round, worldwide books are putting the Storm 3.00 to win by 1-12 or under and a mere Evens to win by more than 13.  Now, the line is only -8.5 for me, -10.5 on TAB.  If that is the case, why the heck is payout evens for anything from 2.5 to 4.5 points over the line?  Why is 1-12, well within the line, a whopping 3.00?!  Books telling you their opinion.

But how much weight can you put on the TAB highest scoring team prop?  Carlton is 2nd best at 5.50 and their opponent, Melbourne, is 2nd Worst at 26.00.  However, the lines between that match and the Bombers/Saints match are very similar! 

Anyone else chime in on this?

HoH, with the 1-12 margin, you have added another condition to the event occurring, i.e. that 1. Melbourne must win, and; 2. they must win by less than 12. It is therefore not surprising at all to me that the books think that melbourne putting a score on them is a more likely option. It doesn't mean that the line is off. Using my book as an example, Melbourne are giving 10, the 1-12 is at $3.00 and the 13+ is at $2.15. If you bet Melbourne -10, and they win by 10 you push, if they win by 11 you win, if they win by 30 you win....etc. If you take the margin and they win by 14 you're fucked. It makes sense to me to increase the odds when you narrow the number of events that constitute a win

 
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Posted: #12
Aussie Battler, thank you for the reply.  Yes, I understand that it is a little more difficult to win on the Storm when you have to limit their winning margin to 12 or under, BUT!, since the line is only -8.5 or -10.5, you would think the heavier price would be on 13+......  I think it is fair to assume that Melbourne will win.  So, the books have tipped that if they do win (big chance), that the winning margin will be big, definitely bigger than the line.

In U.S. sports, the shortest priced margin is always the margin that the line falls into.  Margin betting in the U.S. rarely tips their hand.  So, perhaps I am not used to seeing strangely priced margins so often on the TAB sites, etc.
 
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Posted: #13
 and good luck to us this weekend.
 
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Posted: #14
Cheers to all of us!
 
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Posted: #15

Some stats for tonights game

https://www.footyform.com.au/game1.htm

 
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Posted: #16
OVER 205.5
Dons $1000 @ $1.85
 
This is a gut feel play. The Saints potentially playing more direct and winning it out of the middle and long kicks on both sides. What almost made me not take this was the last game result. What made me take it was a very strong suspicion that the Dons will continue to play their running game and that the Saints will be more direct with less mistakes and be able to cause problems for the Dons defence.
 
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Posted: #17

Forgot my record. +$2060

Finally in the black after a $5k swing.

 Stevie is just blind with happiness.

 

 
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Posted: #18
good luck ecoute and good to see you in the positive with that big swing
 
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Posted: #19
Thanks mate
 
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Posted: #20

Hayes Disposals

$500 @ $1.95

See showmethemoney1 thread for info on this pick.

 
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Posted: #21
Brisvegas +8
$1000 @ $1.93

Don't get me wrong Hawks have an awesome team. Expecting a downer from them.

......... and yeah yeah well done to the Cats. Swans gave up 5 minutes in the 4th quarter and Cats went happy spastic.
In anticipation "Shut up G-Man"
 
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Posted: #22
Pies ML
$1000 @ $1.70
 
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Posted: #23
Considering the under in the Pies game @ 196.5
 
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Posted: #24
Was thinking the over in the Pies game.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Cashing it suprises me now how many games are going over at the G. I know Pies play over at the G but I did not expect it from the Roos.
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