Posted:
#1
This is a line I like quite enough for tomorrow's game.
Spain comes from winning Turkey (73-56). It was not an easy match for them, because between dubious arbitration decisions and the heat of the public, Turkey did not give in and the points difference was almost always a few points. Spain did not break the game until the last quarter.
I particularly did not like what I saw. They took the game forward by the quality of the players, but they got many points in extremis, playing very long possessions with many forced shots.
Probably the team will have talked about it. They did not play well, and we should see an offensive improvement in attack against Germany. They are semifinals.
Germany for its part comes from winning to France. A real surprise. Schroder scored 22 points and gave 8 assists. Secondaries appeared like Daniel Theis (22 points), a very strong mobility forward, and Robin Benzing (12 points), a forward with good hand.
Why Over?
Because Spain, the 4th highest scorer of the tournament with 87.0 pp, exceeded the line in 3 of the last 6 games we have played in the tournament:
vs Montenegro (99-69) -> 159
R.Checa (56-93) -> 149
vs Romania (91-50) -> 141
@ Croatia (73-79) -> 152
@ Hungary (64-87) -> 151
vs Turkia (73-56) -> 129
Germany for its part, the same. He passed the line in 3/6 matches:
vs Ukrania (75-63) -> 138
Georgia (57-67) -> 124
vs Israel (80-82) -> 162
@ Italia (55-61) -> 116
vs Lithuania (72-89) -> 161
vs France (84-81) -> 165
As we can see, Germany overcame the line against very offensive teams like Lithuania or France.
It should be noted that Germany is a more defensive team than offensive. But if they want to beat the pace of Spain, they will have no choice but to adapt to a faster game. It's what they did with France, and they played well.
Those of Scariolo on the other hand, are not going to play in a noisy field like with Turkey, that we want or not, that affects. The field is now neutral, and Spain should be able to overcome the barrier of 80 points.
We have a precedent of two years ago played in Germany. He won Spain 76-77 (153 points), although both teams had different rosters. Schroder played a game, and although he was not Rubio, he scored Sergio Llull who we know is a very good defender. I hope the German makes a great game.
In short, I think Spain is far superior to Germany, and should also meet the spread. This time I choose the over, because I think Spain will play very strong tomorrow to dispel doubts, and Germany will have to adapt offensively, because in defense, it will be very difficult to leave Spain below 80 points. I expect a score of 69-83 for Spain.
Luck.
Over + 149.5
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@DeanNba
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