NBL and WNBL Round #13

WNBL: 14-16 

Finally, we have some games this week. Starting off with Kings vs Melbourne. Melbourne finally got a good win at home vs the Perth Wildcats. Childress returns today for the Kings in a much needed win. Kings still missing Khazzouh. Still don't like Melbourne at all. Still don't like Kings either though. Childress does add to the Kings offense big time. Already been 3 meetings this season, with the Kings smoking Melbourne last time they met in Melbourne. Game totals have hit 177, 199 & 178 so they have all gone over this total yet the books release a total lower than the actual 3 games results. Missing Khazzouh isn't an issue for me seeing that he has been pretty soft and quiet in the last few games he played. Brandt is much more harder and can be a w@nker at times as well but he plays with some heart. Khazzouh just looks lazy sometimes. Will see where these lines go because we have plenty of time before tip-off but lean Kings and or the under in this game. Kings in their new home court remember, they have already played there last weekend which was a loss to NZ 93-83. 

BOL forum 

Risky yes, but I do think that the books know more than we do. The last game in Melbourne saw a ridiculous Garleep hit 9-9 in the 1Q and the 1Q hit 47 points followed by 59 in the 2Q, 42 in the 3Q and 29 in the 4Q. Insane to think that the 1H had 106 points in just 20 mins of ball. Thats over 5 points per minute and yet the game just clicked over the 174.5 total given back then when it hit 177 points thanks to a low 4Q. Now, i checked stats, Kings are allowing 93 points on the road compared to 86.5 at home. They average the same at home/road with 84.5 points. Melbourne on the other hand, they are allowing 88 on the road whilst scoring 82.5 and at home they are averaging 87 and allowing 81. Big difference for Melbourne from home/away. Childress will give some added benefit to the Kings offense in this game and Khazzouh being out makes me think that the may struggle for 2nd chance points against Majok and Melbourne. The TT for Melbourne in this game is currently at 89.5 points, they have not hit more than that on the road in over 7 road games. They last hit over this when they play Sydney way back when they were on fire at the start of the season and they notched up 105 points. Both these 2 teams are coming off some overs last weekend, the overs were flying over recently because the books didn't adjust their lines much but I think the unders/totals will regress to the mean and we see a low scoring game tonight. Its Xmas time, some players might not be bothered running and gunning as much, as well as Melbourne are playing their 3rd game in just 7 days which is rare in the NBL and with some travel as well, going to Adelaide, back to Melbourne and now up to Sydney to Homebush for this game. 

Thinking something along the lines of 83-77 either way

Anything to do with the new stadium? 

I just don't see how all previous encounters go huge in total points and they set this at 174.5...

Very fish...

But I'm on it with you before it moves 

Unfortunately Peekay I haven't been to the new stadium. Last week's game vs NZ saw a very low 76 points in the 1H followed by a ridiculous 100 points in the 2H thanks to Webster hitting 26 in the 2H just himself for NZ. I think we see the 1H high scoring in this game and then 2H scoring die down (hopefully). The line is very suspect to me as well mate, I really don't understand them releasing the total lower when all 3 games have gone over in this total. These guys arent used to playing 3 games in 7 nights so hopefully Melbourne's shooting is off tonight. Just hope the 3's don't come thick and fast in this game from both teams. The last time I watched the Kings they hit 3-29 from downtown. Hopefully they go back to that again tonight 

Thanks mate.. Always a risk playing an under in this league but hopefully I have picked the right under to play 

Ah cr@p... Hate being on the other side of you Freddie. Can't wish you good luck either.. 

100+ points in the first half. 

It's hard to pull the trigger on that when there's already 106 on the board..

Cairns are +2.5 right now at home and they are 5-2 S/U at home, their opponents the NZ Breakers are just 3-5 S/U on the road and have won their last 2 on the road beating Kings and Townsville who are both teams in this league that actually have losing records (before they played the Breakerrs). at home this season. The only teams actually.

The other game has Crocs +4.5 vs the Hawks. The Hawks IMHO are the most inform team right now. Over the past 10 games, they have the best record in the league going 7-3 S/U. Crocs 6th over the last 10 going 4-6 S/U but since sacking Conklin, they have gone 3-2 S/U which isn't bad for them. At home, the Crocs are 4-4 S/U and the Hawks are 3-5 S/U on the road and like what DaveNZ said a few weeks ago, home teams can sometimes rule this league and I agree totally. Now we just have to weed out which home dog is the home dog to take. 

If the Taipans want to make the playoffs, they need to win. They travel to Sydney after this game and play on Saturday. Apart from the Kings, any team can still make the post-season.  Very intereresting. Would like to hear other people's opinions on this as well. 

As for the WNBL, possibly the match of the year. Lynx vs Fire in Perth. Line is currently -3 in favour of Perth. Perth are 13-3 ATS this season. Amazing. These teams have already met and its one of the games I actually got right (LOL) when the Fire took advantage of the Lynx poor shooting in the 4Q to win the game and cover the line as well. Amazing that Lynx are -3 vs the reigning champions. Will make a play little later on this game as well.

BOL everyone, happy NYE as well.