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Who will emerge as the best team in the AFL this season?
1.We do feel Dallas is very strong. Their post season performance was a let down after their strong regular season. That means the Desperados will bring a lot of motivation into this season.
2. The best team in the AFL right now is probably Dallas, even though Chicago is coming off its championship season. Dallas was 13-3 last year and fielded the top offense (58.1 PPG) and defense (44.4 PPG) in the league. QB Clint Dolezel returns, but they've had to replace a receiver or two.
Worst club?
1. Kansas City may be the worst team in the league. They couldn't score well enough last season and we see a lack of depth on this season's Brigade. If you don't score in this league it's tough to win!
2. Probably the worst team is my home town Las Vegas Gladiators. They were 5-11 last year, but will be fortunate to win four games this season. The team has been completely revamped so that only three players on the entire roster have more than a year of experience.
Surprise team?
1. As for a surprise team we like Georgia. Keep in mind the Force were just 8-8 in the regular season last year but did make the playoffs. This season they have arguably some of the best linemen in the league as well as standout receivers. They could very well take the next step even though many won't expect it with QB Nagy going to Columbus. QB Chris Greisen will be better than many expect.
2. A surprise team might be the Georgia Force. They were mediocre last season (8-8) but showed flashes of promise in their passing game, which garnered the league's top rating. They'll be starting a new quarterback this year, but he has possibly the league's top receiving corps
How much stock do you put into homefield?
1. Not too much because I feel the odds maker already does a very good job of factoring that into the equation. I look more at situational edges and match-up edges that might not be factored into the number as well as we think they should be!
2. Homefield is definitely an advantage for most teams. Last season, seven teams finished with losing records; six of them fared much better at home than on the road. Dramatic examples include Chicago (5-3 at home vs. 2-6 on the road) and Grand Rapids (5-3 at home vs. 0-8 on the road).
Any strategy when capping an Arena game?
1. Quarterbacks are key in the AFL, but I think the play of the linemen is a key factor that many overlook. If you're line doesn't play well it can make it hard on your own quarterback and too easy on the opponents quarterback!
2. When handicapping games, at this point in the season experience is key. As noted above, Las Vegas had a big influx of former NFL players in the off-season, but the learning curve for the AFL is high. Their lack of experience will be a huge detriment. In addition, the best passing teams win in the AFL. A team has to have a quick-release quarterback who can throw accurately. With such a small field, there's little margin for throwing errors. Chicago entered the playoffs last season with a losing record (7-9), but because of their terrific passing attack (ranked fourth in the league) pulled a few upsets to win the championship.
Do you think the influx of former NFL players will make a difference for teams?
1. Not really, in fact if anything it's a difficult adjustment for the NFL players. It's simply a whole different ball game and talent alone doesn't cut it in the AFL. There are nuances of the game that are much different than the NFL.
2. Influx of NFL players will be more significant this year because of the substitution rule change. In the past, most players had to play both offense and defense, a difficult task for many NFL players. Now, defensive players can expect to play their true positions; likewise for offensive players. Nonetheless, experience is still monumental in this league and hiring a boatload of new NFL players isn't enough to right most ships (see Las Vegas Gladiators above).
Closing Shots:
1. The key is having a QB that can lead you down the field nearly every time. Couple that with a defense that can get you just a couple of stops and you're in good shape! Of course I still feel that motivational issues, situational edges, scheduling advantages, match-up edges...all of those factors come into play in the AFL just like they do in any league. I always keep that as part of my handicapping arsenal. Using those factors combined with an eye for line value is a key to making money in the AFL.
2. AFL games in general place a premium on the passing attack, and the ability of secondary units to make tackles, especially with such a smaller field to work with. The rushing attack has much less significance in this league that it is nearly non-existent at times. Because the games are so high-scoring, possessions are important and turnovers (mostly interceptions) are crucial. Remember, each turnover is a two possession swing (you lose one you should have had and they gain one they shouldn't have had). And with such a high likelihood of scoring, that can spell a lot of points for your opponent.
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whatcha gotta do is watch for clues....
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