Record: 13-10, +$203
Went 2-0 last week which will be good enough to guarantee me a small profit on the regular season.
In any other sport, with a larger size betting unit, I might take the last week off as reward for a season well done. But these are just small, action/fun size units so I'll have some kind of play this week.
Besides, every game this week has playoff implications, how cool is that?
Birmingham is the only team that's locked up a playoff spot. They're playing the Memphis Haley's, who need to win to see postseason action.
In the North, the four teams are facing their division rivals, all - Philadelphia, Michigan, Pittsburgh, and New Jersey - needing a win to make the playoffs.
Abandoning the "Fade every game" experiment that I noted in week one was a good move. The writer I chose to fade had two straight losing seasons but he's at 22-14 this year for a profit of $690, an amount similar to what I would have lost if I'd faded him throughout the year (Why don't I ever mention which writer? Because I'm not here to pick on anyone or make fun of anyone, just trying to have some fun and finish the year with a little + in my balance.)
With playoff implications in every game I'd like to have action on all four of them. But I'm locking up a profit by using a quarter of a unit for each game. Here are some thoughts:
NJ finally looked like they got back on track last week as they rolled over Philadelphia, but do I trust them laying that hook over a FG? No, I do not. Buying the other side though means taking Pittsburgh, who turned out to be just as bad as I thought they'd be when I talked about them in the early season here. Then again, NJ isn't much better, they're both at 3-6. Under is probably the better option, with two decent defenses and New Jersey relying on a running game, but I'm a Jersey boy so I'll take a chance that the hook doesn't screw me and take the team I think is going to win SU and hope they cover.
In the second game, Birmingham's already clinched so the question is will they take their foot off the gas vs Memphis, who needs to win to make the playoffs? Yes, I expect them to protect their stars and use a limited game plan in a meaningless contest. Does that mean Memphis is the play? Here's my note from last week: "The Todd Haley's have been playing way over their head thanks to decent quarterback play but it's still Haley at head coach and he's way overdue to revert back to a bone-headed pumpkin." So I took NO. Final score? NO 31-3. No way I'm playing the Haley's. I like the Over but I'm gunshy because, like I said, I think Birmingham goes conservative this week. I'll wait till results are in from the early game before making a decision on the afternoon game. If I make a play I'll post it.
Buys:
NJ -3'
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