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Bodio's NHL Thur 10/06

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Posted: #1
I'll reiterate again that I don't handicap NHL. I can't even name 5 players in the league. I do handicap odds movement and situations. Basically, this hockey betting system is predicated on the fact that there is just not that many people wagering on this sport. Therefore, major 'odds' moves are more so influenced by the 'sharps' than some of the more popular sports like football, basketball, and baseball. Hopefully the system shows the profit again this year.

I'm going to play 1/3 of my normal bet amount on these wagers.
Let's get to it:

2011 NHL

#1: Philadelphia Flyers +120

Good luck!

=========================================
Updated records:

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390

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Posted: #2
love it BOL
 
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GL
 
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WOW, nice to see you posting in the NHL fourm!
 
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Posted: #5
nice play Bodio, I think this match going to under 5.5

good luck
 
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Posted: #6

BOL

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by ionutt79:

nice play Bodio, I think this match going to under 5.5

good luck

No idea.  Ask the 'experts' to break it down.
 
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Posted: #8
Thanks for the pick Bodio , I dont know where my local got his line at , but his book is super sharp . Again he got Flyers at only +105
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by giangho_viet:

Thanks for the pick Bodio , I dont know where my local got his line at , but his book is super sharp . Again he got Flyers at only +105

The odds are dropping like flyers (get it? )
Your local's odds are really low though.  Pinny's at +114, 5Dimes at +115, even BoDog is +110 (I placed my wager at BoDog as I find them to have 'value' on dogs in hockey wagering).  Even my locals have it at +115.

If you can get Boston at -105 with your local and then place a +115 bet on the Flyers on-line you can have a nice little arbitrage scenario.  Depending on your limits you could come out with a $100 or $200 risk-free profit. :)
 
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Posted: #10
Already down to +110
 
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Posted: #12
BOL on flyers also
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


The odds are dropping like flyers (get it? )
Your local's odds are really low though.  Pinny's at +114, 5Dimes at +115, even BoDog is +110 (I placed my wager at BoDog as I find them to have 'value' on dogs in hockey wagering).  Even my locals have it at +115.

If you can get Boston at -105 with your local and then place a +115 bet on the Flyers on-line you can have a nice little arbitrage scenario.  Depending on your limits you could come out with a $100 or $200 risk-free profit. :)
that's great , but my Local have Boston at -125 and Flyers +105 now . I'm already on Flyers following you .
 
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Posted: #14
Hey bodio do you know if Bodog has 1st period NHL lines?
 
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Posted: #15
gl bodio.....
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:

Hey bodio do you know if Bodog has 1st period NHL lines?

Not sure, but I don't think they do
It's a very square and shitty book but they have more 'value' on dogs and I like using them for 'teasers' in football as their lines are shaded towards the favorites .
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Not sure, but I don't think they do
It's a very square and shitty book but they have more 'value' on dogs and I like using them for 'teasers' in football as their lines are shaded towards the favorites .


ah I see
What does it mean for a book to be 'square'?
 
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Posted: #18
Best of luck, Bodio!

 - Jimmus
 
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Posted: #19
For these first games, I'd look for some sort of motivational or de-motivational edge compared to the odds and price given.

Boston = They will raise the Stanley Cup banner tonight and defend their championship.  That's a good enough edge to not go against them.

Vancouver = After playing and losing in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals and having to start a new season all over, there's a chance of a letdown spot.  Pittsburgh's a great team, had a great pre-season as well.  Nothing says they can't win tonight.  At +135 I'll take it.

No need to over-think things on the first night.

Good luck
 
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Posted: #20
bodio @ Nhl wow,, jajaj
i do not handicapp this sport ,,,but i really like the underdogs here
just take them!
i like also penguins +145! <<<this is my first play jeje 
GL!
 
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Posted: #21
You may think that last season has nothing to do with this season and that's true, it doesn't.  But... This game does, the players are still talking about last season's results to the media.  Kesler even quoted as saying that he hasn't stopped thinking about that night all summer.  Clearly they are still a little taken back by last season results.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:



ah I see
What does it mean for a book to be 'square'?

they cater to 'casual' bettors, so their limits are low and their odds/spreads are over-inflated to the favorites and the overs (public plays)
 
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Posted: #23
BOL BODIO
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:

Hey bodio do you know if Bodog has 1st period NHL lines?


Yes, it is under nhl team props.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


they cater to 'casual' bettors, so their limits are low and their odds/spreads are over-inflated to the favorites and the overs (public plays)


Oh ok, thanks
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